Camera Dashboard: May 2009

Sunday, May 31, 2009

Monday, Monday

My weekly page update:

Step Up on Fifth in Santa Monica, California by Pugh + Scarpa Architects.

This week's book review is Materiology: The Creative Industry's Guide to Materials and Technologies by Daniel Kula and �lodie Ternaux by Author.

Some unrelated links for your enjoyment:

Public Art Fund
"New York's leading presenter of artists' projects, new commissions, and exhibitions in public spaces." A Clearing in the Streets, a temporary landscape designed by Julie Farris and Sarah Wayland-Smith was unveiled last Wednesday. (added to sidebar under architectural links::new york city)

TommyManuel.net
"The blog of Tommy Manuel, Architect. It contains thoughts on architecture, design, planning, preservation, and anything else these may engage." (added to sidebar under blogs::architecture)

rory hyde dot com blog
Blog of graduate architect Rory Hyde, now working at Volume Magazine. (added to sidebar under blogs::architecture)

Design with Intent
"Architecture of control, design for sustainable behavior, by Dan Lockton." (added to sidebar under blogs::sustainability)

Agoraphobia
"Global architecture discussion." (added to sidebar under architectural links::forums)

It's a Goodwill Party!

Well helloooo ladies! OK, the party is finally here! I am calling this a Goodwill party, but you can link to anything you've purchased "second hand," meaning you purchased it at a thrift store, consignment shop, garage sale, your grandma's attic, whatever!

If you have read this blog for one minute, you know I love me some Goodwill! I have three pretty good ones within a five mile radius, and the best is right down the street. I have developed what I call my "Goodwill radar." I can sense a good deal waiting for me inside...you think I'm kidding! I have found some of my best deals with my sixth sense. Goodwill and I are like this. Tight, yo.

I know some of you have an aversion to Goodwill shops. (Ahem...Jennifer.) Whateva whateva people, you need to load yourself with a mask and some latex gloves and bear down. You can do it! You can bear it! You can walk past the elderly potty chairs and get through it. I believe in you. And if you do, maybe you'll find some treasures like I have. First some of my favorites...

My beautious $25 Goodwill coffee table:

With a bunch of $1.99 hardback books stacked on it:

With the covers taken off of course, and they have to have titles I love.

This table is one of my all time favorites. I think it was $30, I can't remember it's been so long. It was AWFUL, awful, blech, puke green. Awful. But I saw it's potential. My dad actually took it and refinished it for me as a gift and now it's one of my favorite pieces of furniture:

Gorg! It's actually an antique, if you can believe it! I had a marking underneath that I researched (I'm too lazy to get my butt off the couch to look now) and it is really old.

This desk was also an awful throw up green (what's the deal with green?) and I painted it black and replaced the knobs. It was $20:

Here's a few before and afters I've done in the past few months. I was looking for a little tray for the cat food and water, for, like EVER. I mean, I'm not paying $20 for a tray the cats eat off of. I mean, I love them and all, but really? This bed tray was $4 and falling apart:

With some glue and black spray paint, it turned out perfect:

Don't ask about the water fountain. Please. Just don't ask.

Last fall, our son was starting to get into Thomas the Train, and I researched the train tables and about threw up in my mouth a little. The whole shebang would be $250. One day, my Goodwill radar was at high alert, so I popped in and found this for $25:

It was in PERFECT condition, except where the tracks were glued down. I just turned over the table part and spray painted the table green:

I'm not kidding when I say I saved $225 on this thing! Now, if Hubby would quit buying train stuff, that would be great.

I showed you this last fall, it was $5 and I'm not really sure what it was originally:

I saw it as a little bookcase:

I love it! This little beauty was $2.99 and was OK in white:

But it needed some cleaning and I'm a black paint kind of girl anyway:

It still had a Crate and Barrel price tag on the bottom for $20ish.

I've had a bit of an obsession with all things glass lately, and my Goodwill doesn't disappoint. I found both of these for $1.99 each:

Our dining room cabinet has collected quite a few, although I haven't figured out what I'm doing with them yet:

Remember the jute vases? Yep, they were Goodwill finds:

That gorg tall carafe is fantastic and was $4!

Of course, my laundry room update consisted of mostly Goodwill and consignment shop finds:

My little $3 mirror I made into a candlescape...I loved the detail!:

I am loving our local consignment shop too -- I've made more than $200 by selling old stuff there over the past year. I find great little treasures there as well (that have completely blown the $200 I made. Huh.) My lamp that I transformed with spray paint and some ribbon:

My skeleton keys were $7 for five keys:

These candlesticks were on sale for $10 for both. I cut one down and glued the top back on so they weren't the same size:

This little doodad on my $20 sofa table is actually a $7 decorative shelf I turned upside down:

Sooooo...what have you transformed? Made your own? Made work for you? Do you need a mask and gloves or do you lurve Goodwill?

I have to mention the purpose of Goodwill while I'm at it -- they are a fantastic organization that help to employ people with disabilities at all levels of the business. These are people may not be employed otherwise. Goodwill allows these folks to be productive members of society, and that is a very good thing. OK, onto the party!!

I have taken down the Linky because of issues it was causing with my site...I've tried just adding the links but it's not working...I'm going to try to get this to work! If you would like to add your post, please leave it in the comments! Thank you so much!

1. Vivienne (lamp shades, canisters)
2. Vivienne (platter)
3. http://www.cleanandclassic.com/?p=1008
4. http://serenitynow4amanda.blogspot.com/2009/06/salvation-army-saves-day.html
5. Donna at Funky Junk Interiors
6. Lacey
7. Shortmama
8. http://mollythepirate.blogspot.com/2009/05/goodwill-transformation.html
9. http://imperfectlybeautifulms.blogspot.com/2009/06/goodwill-party-treasures.html
10. Fresh Poppy Design...CuTE DecOR!
11. Erin
12. mary's meanderings
13. A Beach Cottage ~ Vintage Shabby Old Dresser
14. Traci-Goodwill chair makeover
15. Kammy-Small Home in the Country
16. Living With Lindsay
17. Chrissie Grace
18. My Garden of Eden
19. Kinzie Sue
20. Kimba (headboard makeover)
21. Kimba #2 (tufted piano bench)
22. The Acting Mom
23. We are THAT family
24. http://lotsofloveformine.blogspot.com/2009/05/back-upi-have-spray-paint.html
25. http://ashleysbusy.com/2009/06/01/a-pillow-a-day/
26. melissa * 320 sycamore (green table makeover)
27. Brandy- Loving Blakely
28. Scatter Sunshine
29. TidyMom (nightstand makeover)
30. TidyMom
31. http://embellishedbayou.blogspot.com/2009/04/back-to-reality.html
32. http://embellishedbayou.blogspot.com/2009/03/switching-gears.html
33. Caren - CityMomma/CountryMomma
34. Lipstick and Laundry ~Jen
35. Caren - CityMomma/CountryMomma
36. ilovemy5kids
37. Sweetbippy
38. Andrea

77. Giggles Galore
78. Holly (Mosaic Table)
79. Brittany
80. Brittany
81. Brittany
82. Andy
83. The Starr Family
84. http://ourheartlandhomehome.blogspot.com/2009/06/goodwill-party.html
85. June
86. http://thatsfamtastic.blogspot.com/2009/06/loveseat-makeover.html
87. A Little More Crazy Than Cool :)
88. Linsay
89. Lisa S.
90. Eileen (Earring Lamp)
91. Eileen (Egg Basket, Candy Dish, Bread Box)
92. Steph
93. Amy
94. Marie - Consignment Find
95. The Magic Brush
96. http://thetillmanfamily.blogspot.com/2009/06/goodwill-party.html
97. The Painted Lady
98. Colorfly Studio
99. Simply Saving
100. Kelli
101. http://ellisevents.blogspot.com/2009/06/bench-seat-check-pillows-check-check.html
102. http://barnesfamilylove.blogspot.com/2009/06/showing-off.html
103. Enchantresses 3
104. Melany (Pilarina's Workshop)
105. cher
106. http://meandmyinsanity.blogspot.com/2009/06/good-willgood-advice.html
107. Tammy
108. Eileen HUGE Goodwill score
109. Amber - table to tufted ottoman
110. Heather Happy Chippy Junk
111. Michelle B
112. http://www.moneysavindiva.com/2009/06/my-great-goodwill-finds.html
113. Jaron Hatch
114. Diana

Today's archidose #318

Casa Zapata Vieco, originally uploaded by Mejia#8 [sick].

Casa en Ladera in El Retiro, Antioquia Colombia by Paisajes Emergentes, 2008.

To contribute your Flickr images for consideration, just:

:: Join and add photos to the archidose pool, and/or
:: Tag your photos archidose

Mortgage Meltdown, More Pain To Come

T2 Partners has a phenomenal series of charts on the housing crisis stating Why There Is More Pain To Come.

The report is 69 pages almost all of them loaded with charts. I took a liberal selection below, adding plenty of comments, but please take a look at the original article for many additional charts. All charts below are from the article. Click on any chart to see a sharper image. Quotes from the article in italics. My comments are in plain text.

Case Shiller vs. Lawler

Nearly everyone is familiar with Case Shiller. I suspect most have not heard of Lawler. Interestingly there is a feud of sorts between the two as noted by the Wall Street Journal article Outlook for Home Prices Clouded by Spat Over Historical Trends.

Yale University economist Robert Shiller has often dazzled audiences with a chart showing home prices from 1890 to present. Someone even used Mr. Shiller's chart to make a YouTube video that puts its viewer on a roller-coaster ride over peaks and valleys in home pricing. It's a bumpy ride.

Now another economist, Thomas Lawler, says Prof. Shiller's chart is "bogus." Mr. Lawler says Mr. Shiller cobbled together data that are inconsistent and sometimes unreliable. Mr. Shiller defends his work and accuses Mr. Lawler of making "wild allegations."

No one has found a precise way to measure changes in house prices. Because no two homes are exactly alike, changes in the price of one won't necessarily be matched even by apparently similar homes nearby, much less those hundreds of miles away.

But that doesn't stop analysts from extrapolating from what may be dubious data. In a March 30 report, T2 Partners LLC, a New York hedge-fund manager, drew on the Shiller chart to conclude that on average U.S. home prices need to drop another 13% to get back in line with the long-term trend.

Mr. Lawler has created an adjusted version of the Shiller chart, backing up his view that house prices already are nearing a bottom in much of the country. A T2 partner called Mr. Lawler's critique "valid."

I guess we need to define "nearing a bottom". We also need to look at concentrations of houses. Does it matter much if home prices are bottoming across vast sections of the farm belt with low density houses if the big cities are still declining rapidly?

Certainly we are closer to a bottom than two years ago but I am betting the bottom is still years away although the rate of decline is slowing.

Mortgage Debt vs. Equity

Americans Have Borrowed Heavily Against Their Homes Such That the Percentage of Equity in Their Homes Has Fallen Below 50% for the First Time on Record Since 1945.

Gorged In Debt

Over the Past 30 Years, We Have Become a Nation Gorged in Debt � To The Benefit of Financial Services Firms.

Think that leverage is coming back? I don't. The Effect of Household Deleveraging on Housing, Consumption and the Stock Market is going to be far greater than most realize. This bubble will not be reblown, just as the Nasdaq bubble was not reblown after the tech crash.

Peak Credit and her twin sister Peak Earnings have arrived.

Surge of Toxic Mortgages

It took a decade to blow the bubble. It is going to take more than a few years to clear it.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Account for 56% of Mortgages

Private Label Mortgages (Those Securitized by Wall St.) Are 15% of All Mortgages, But Are 51% of Seriously Delinquent Mortgages.

Mortgage Delinquencies as Percentage of Loans

Nearly 8% of Mortgages on 1-to-4-Family Homes Were Delinquent or in Foreclosure as of Q4 2008.

This number is bound to get much worse, and/or taxpayer bailouts get much bigger given that job losses are over 500,000 for months on end. Moreover, Fitch estimates 75 percent of the modifications now being done through the administration's Making Home Affordable program will re-default in six months to a year. Please see More Prime Foreclosures; More Re-Defaults for details.

Subprime Resets

Here's the good news:
The Wave of Resets from Subprime Loans Is Mostly Behind Us.

Alt-A Mortgage Resets

Here's the bad news:
There Are $2.4 Trillion of Alt-A Mortgages and Their Resets Are Mostly Ahead of Us.

Option Arm Oiginations

About $750 Billion of Option ARMs Were Written, Nearly All at the Peak of the Bubble.

Option ARMs by State

California accounts for 58% of all Option ARMs. Think Wells Fargo, a big option ARM player is going to come out of this glowing? Warren Buffett does. I don't. Place your bets.

Option Arms Index vs. Fannie Mae 30 yr Index

Beginning in March 2005, High-FICO-Score Borrowers Opted for an Above-Market-Rate Option ARM in Exchange for the Low Teaser Rate

Option ARM Delinquencies

Delinquencies of Securitized Option ARMs Are Soaring

Cal Sales vs. Home Equity Loans

Think new car sales are going to come soaing back with rising unemployment and tightening loan standards? Think again.

Case Shiller vs. NAR Median Sales Price vs. OFHEO Index

Home Prices Are in an Unprecedented Freefall

Bubble Market Declines

The bubble markets (where most people live), have taken a brutal beating.

24% of Homeowners With a Mortgage Owe More Than the Home Is Worth, Making Them Far More Likely to Default

Shiller Lawler Trendlines

Home Prices Need to Fall Another 5-10% to Reach Trend Line

Whether you believe Shiller or Lawler, home prices still need to fall to reach the trendlines. Moreover there has never been a bubble correction in history that stopped right at the trendline.

Change In Nonfarm Payroll Employment

There have been job losses every month since December 2007. Moreover, there is no letup in sight as Continuing Claims Approach 6.8 Million, 17th Consecutive New Record.

The dip in initial claims from the March peak of roughly 650,000 is not accelerating very fast, if indeed at all. Those looking for a recovery in jobs soon are going to be disappointed.

Economists expect to see unemployment by 10% at the end of the year. I expect to see it at 9.8%+- by August and approaching 11% by the end of the year. Bear in mind the "stress-free tests" conducted by the Fed had an adverse scenario of 10.3% at the end of 2010.

Declines in Jobs vs. Past Recessions

The Decline from Peak Employment Now Exceeds the Past Five Recessions.

Total Bank Losses

Total Losses Are Now Estimated at $2.1-$3.8 Trillion � And Less Than Half of This Has Been Realized To Date.

Losses & Writedowns vs. Capital Raised

Institutions Have Been Able to Raise Capital to Mostly Keep Up With Writedowns, But This Will Likely Not Continue.

What can't be paid back will be defaulted on. Consumers with no job have no chance of paying back those debts. Many others who could, won't (because it is in their best interest to walk away). The Alt-A and Option ARM defaults are going to be massive.

Think this leads to inflation? Think again.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Saturday, May 30, 2009

More Prime Foreclosures; More Re-Defaults

John Mauldin has another interesting weekly letter called This Way There Be Dragons. Here's a look at the section on housing. Emphasis mine.

"Yesterday Fitch ratings estimated that up to 75 percent of the modifications now being done through the administration's Making Home Affordable program will re-default in six months to a year. I'm not talking about the old modifications, which were largely repayment plans that could actually raise monthly payments. I'm talking about the new mods, which lower monthly payments to 31 percent of a person's income. I couldn't understand Fitch's reasoning, so I called them.

"Diane Pendley, managing director at Fitch, said the problem is not on that "front-end" ratio, but on the back end, which is all of the borrowers other debt (credit cards, car loans, student loans, etc.). She said that in talking with servicers, she's hearing other debt is so high that most of today's troubled borrowers cannot afford any loan payment at all, even at a very modest debt-to-income ratio. 'Just getting the house payment done doesn't mean their lifestyle is sustainable,' she said.

"Another problem is that with home prices continuing to fall, more and more borrowers, who are essentially just renting their mortgages now because they will never see any home equity, are walking away. Even if the mortgage payment is low, the property taxes and home maintenance costs are padding that payment, and without an upside to the investment, there's simply no reason to pay. Suffice it to say, the foreclosure crisis, on the high and low ends, is not getting any better."

And it gets worse.
More Prime Foreclosures In Our Future

The Mortgage Bankers Association noted that a record 12%, or 1 in 8 homeowners, in the US are now behind on their payments or in foreclosure. 10.6% of the mortgages in Florida are now somewhere in the process of actual foreclosure. (My seatmate here on the flight says the prices on the condos where he lives are now back to 1998 levels. It would be scary, he said, if you had to sell. There are new developments that only have 10% actual occupancy, as the bulk of the condos were bought for speculation. Now those 10% of buyers are having to shoulder all the fees for upkeep. Nobody will buy, because the upkeep costs can be more than the mortgage. It is a vicious cycle.)

In Nevada foreclosures are 7.8%, Arizona 5.6%, and California 5.2%. 25% of subprime loans are now in foreclosure, 14% of FHA (government, taxpayer-guaranteed) loans and a growing 6% of all prime loans are now in foreclosure. (Note: the seasonal adjustments may overstate the actual numbers, as we are in new territory in terms of actual foreclosures.) Quoting from the MBA press release:

"In looking at these numbers, it is important to focus on what has changed as well what continue to be the key drivers of foreclosures. What has changed is the shifting of the problem somewhat away from the subprime and option ARM/Alt-A loans to the prime fixed-rate loans. The foreclosure rate on prime fixed-rate loans has doubled in the last year, and, for the first time since the rapid growth of subprime lending, prime fixed-rate loans now represent the largest share of new foreclosures. In addition, almost half of the overall increase in foreclosure starts we saw in the first quarter was due to the increase in prime fixed-rate loans."

Servicer Incentives

We are refinancing mortgages at attractive rates, with taxpayers picking up the tab via Fannie, Freddie and the FHA. Let's revisit the Home Affordable Modification Program Guidelines to see how ridiculous the program is.

Servicers will receive an up-front Servicer Incentive Payment of $1,000 for each eligible modification meeting guidelines established under this initiative. Servicers will also receive Pay for Success payments �as long as the borrower stays in the program � of up to $1,000 each year for up to three years. Similar incentives will be paid for Hope for Homeowner refinances.

One-time bonus incentive payments of $1,500 to lender/investors and $500 to servicers will be provided for modifications made while a borrower is still current on mortgage payments.

Taxpayers are forking money over to Countrywide and other servicers at $1,000 a pop (or more) for loan mods, of which 75% will re-default in less than a year because "most of today's troubled borrowers cannot afford any loan payment at all".

Is this a great idea or what? No doubt Bank of America supports it 100%. It's all part of Geithner's "Heist America Plan".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mother of two.

I have long considered myself a mother of two. Even before my son was born, I was a mother of one. One beautiful, sweet, lovely (step)daughter. It is hard for me to call her a stepdaughter. It just doesn't seem right. She has been in my life for such a long time, she feels like part of me, so I call her my child.

Not in a freaky stepmother kind of way, mind you. I had one of those a long time ago and learned a lot from that experience.

I was so incredibly blessed when this girl officially came into my life nine years ago. I was so nervous. I knew how bad a step-relationship could be, and I did everything I could to make the experience easier for her. But I didn't need to. She and I were thisclose from the very first time we met.

I don't know how I got so lucky. I never dealt with tantrums, never any anger, never blame. She welcomed me with sweet, open, nine-year-old arms.

Tomorrow she graduates from high school, and as hard as I am trying to keep the tears from pouring as I type, I just can't. She is a beauty, inside and out, and I am so incredibly proud of her.

The past nine years went by in a blink. No more begging to play Life, Sorry and Whoville-opoly all in one sitting. No more sitting at the table and trying to work through impossible fourth grade math problems. No more being afraid to sleep alone at night. And no more kicking us both out of bed (literally) while she slept. No more gymnastics in the family room. No more paint fights with her girlfriends when they are supposed to be painting her room. No more choir concerts, competitions, football games. No more seeing her whenever I want.

I hope she will continue to bring her sweet, crazy, funny friends over, and raid the fridge, eat all the food and stay up so late I am staring at the clock wondering when I will get to fall asleep. I hope she will continue to do little craft projects with me. I hope she will continue to keep me as a confidant and not be afraid to tell me anything, even when it starts with "Don't tell Dad..."

I dream of the day we drop her off at college. I think this is hard...leaving her there will fill me with so much pride and angst I don't know what I'll do. I dream of the day she finds the "one" and wants to start a life with him. I dream of the day she finds the job that she absolutely loves. And I dream of the day (hopefully a while from now!) that she has her own child, "step" or otherwise. So she can begin to understand how deeply we love her.

For now, I will need to get through tomorrow. I am so filled with emotion...I've put off all thoughts of this day, on purpose. It was too hard to comprehend. I am so proud, so excited, so sad.

My sweet ~~step~~ daughter at just a few years old, on stage with her Daddy:

Here she is on stage a young woman:

Tomorrow she'll be on stage becoming an adult. I don't know if my heart can take it.

NYC Lectures & Exhibitions

Below are upcoming lectures and ongoing exhibitions in and around New York City for the next 31 days. This calendar is curated by me and powered by Bustler; click the links to visit the Bustler entries for more information.

Giant Robot drawing and painting MEGA Mech Saga continue

Giant Robot drawing and painting MEGA Mech Saga continue.

Here is the 3rd update of the Mecha robot concept design process (here is part 1: Mecha Robot step by step drawing and part2 Painting Mech process tutorial). I get about 30 mins to an hour a day to do this...little by little. Hopefully it will turn out nicely.

Here is the latest UPDATE!!! (Still more paint over and tweaking to do! :P)
How to draw Manga, Mecha, Mech, Robot, anime, painting, speedpainting, speedpaint, tutorial

How to draw Manga, Mecha, Mech, Robot, anime, painting, speedpainting, speedpaint, tutorial

Note on the update: I decided yellow probably isn't going to work in this design because I want a little more dramatic lighting effect for this particular drawing, painting, color concept design. So I will have to go with the off-white color (white to light gray). White would probably look slicker anyway in this particular design (kinda remind us of big airplane and such).
I will have to change it from yellow to gray or something similar.
Goto: Top menu in PS --> Layer --> New Adjustment Layer --> Color Balance

You can use this tool to change and tweak your lighting however you like them to be.
Good rule to go by is...Cool light warm shadow vs Warm light cool shadow (Tips here -Color temperature warm vs cool for artist).
So I adjust Midtone then Highlight and Shadows until I get the yellow to change to off white color. Because I want to make underlight more dramatic that why I choose to go with the new color for the Mecha robot.

-Then, I decide to add the pilot cockpit onto its mid-section, figure it would make sense and it would definitely show the scale of the robot that we (human) can related to.
-Also I get a rid of the regtangular shapes on its shoulder. Because there is only one (two vents) regtangular element and the rest of the design are mostly round. So I decided to round it out with some sort of turbine jet engine look alike for vents to maintain the repetitive shape (consistency in design). ***there are some exceptions sometimes***

After all the changes, I think it looks a lot better and closer to what I am aiming for. **The off-white really does bring out the blue sky and the under-lighting effect :)

Anyway, Here is the color sketch so far (almost there)

Here are the updates: Painted over step by step
How to draw Manga, Mecha, Mech, Robot, anime, painting, speedpainting, speedpaint, tutorial

Then I changed the rocket launchers to twin vents.... so it fits. :)
How to draw Manga, Mecha, Mech, Robot, anime, painting, speedpainting, speedpaint, tutorial

Close Up shot of the Mecha body
How to draw Manga, Mecha, Mech, Robot, anime, painting, speedpainting, speedpaint, tutorial

Add some spicy yummy detail onto the big shape.
How to draw Manga, Mecha, Mech, Robot, anime, painting, speedpainting, speedpaint, tutorial

Here is the latest UPDATE!!! (Still more paint over and tweaking to do! :P)
How to draw Manga, Mecha, Mech, Robot, anime, painting, speedpainting, speedpaint, tutorial