Monday, March 31, 2008
How To Improve Your Photography With A Single Lens Reflex Digital Camera
by John Philips
SLR digital cameras have always been associated with professional or, at the very least, the more serious amateur photographers because of their expense. However, because every day new models of SLR digital cameras are being launched, they are becoming more affordable, and more people who want that extra control over their photography than they can get from a compact are upgrading to them.
Even novice photographers can take remarkable pictures with these new cameras, which after a time are particularly user friendly. SLR cameras, the cheap entry level models included, surpass even the most expensive standard digital cameras and, as the digital world is moving extraordinarily fast, more and more models come onto the market and prices are falling.
There are some disadvantages, however to owning a digital SLR camera.
Even though they are becoming more affordable they still incur higher costs than basic compacts. They are bigger, weigh more, the extra expense of purchasing lenses, and there is a learning process to enable you to become familiar with the camera. But if you want your photographs to have a more professional quality then it is worth it.
The options and features appear unlimited in the world of SLR digital cameras and personal choices will depend on what you need out of a camera. Below are listed some of the more popular models, which will hopefully give you an idea of what would match your taste. This is not in the slightest an all-inclusive record, just a casual mixture. There are countless others introduced regularly.
Nikon D40
Affordable digital SLR that is easy to use and compact with a 2.5 inch LCD screen, 6.1 mega pixel and a built-in flash and hot shoe.
A user-friendly camera packed with features that make this camera a fine introduction for the newcomer to DSLR. With all the innovative options and flexibility, which has come to be expected with SLR photography, the D40 will encourage more people into the world of digital SLR than any earlier digital SLR.
Olympus Evolt E410
A compact and well built SLR with a 2.5-inch Live View HyperCrystal LCD display, 10 mega pixel and dust-free technology.
One of the most compact DSLR cameras with 30 automatic shooting modes designed to provide the uppermost adjustments for a variety of shooting circumstances, but also with a full range of manual controls to enable you take command of your photography.
Pentax K10D
Extremely well built and affordable SLR with10.2 Mega pixels, a 2.5" Active Matrix TFT Color LCD display screen and an SLR Optical Pentaprism Viewfinder.
The Pentax K10D is one of the more appealing SLR cameras presently available on the market. The well-designed body and very responsive features are combined with dust-proof seals and water-resistant body.
Canon Digital Rebel XT
One of the smallest and lightest digital cameras in its class with a 1.8 inch TFT color LCD monitor, 8 mega pixel and DIGIC II Image Processor, enabling fast, accurate image processing.
Despite the small LCD screen the Rebel XT is famed for its superb range of features and great value for money. With a sturdy build quality and a smaller, lighter but easy-to-handle design and rich colours and silky smooth resolution, which is to be expected from a Canon product.
Sony Alpha A200K
Powerful, versatile and simple to use with 10 mega pixel, 2.7-inch ClearPhoto LCD and 4x optical zoom.
With high-speed processing, high sensitivity, advanced noise reduction, lightweight and exceptionally easy to operate, the Sony Alpha gives you all you need to develop your photographic creativity. Excellent for those stepping up from point & shoot cameras.
There are many makes and models available for the SLR digital camera shopper and these are just a selection. no matter what you want out of a camera there will be one to fit you.
Slow Motion Train Wreck
Without naming names quite yet, what would you think of a company that accomplished the following in 2007?The above is just a portion of Sedacca's article, an article I consider a great read in entirety. Also covered in the article are ideas of how to play good banks, bad banks, and the in between banks. Those interested in income will welcome reading ideas on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt.I could cite 20 or more similar financial ratios and they are all stunning.
- Wrote down book value from $39 billion to $32 billion or from $41.35 to $29.34 per share.
- Increased shares outstanding from 868 million to 939 million.
- Increased Treasury Stock from 351 million to 418 million.
- Increased long-term borrowings from $147 billion to $201 billion.
- Increased preferred stock issuance from $3.1 to $4.4 billion.
- Increased Total debt to common equity to 2816.81%.
Who is this firm? Merrill Lynch (MER)
Some statistics on another potential bad bank:Who is this firm? Morgan Stanley (MS)
- Wrote down book value from $35 billion to $31 billion or from $32.67 per share to $28.56 per share.
- Increased long term borrowings from $127 billion to $160 billion.
- Increased total debt to common equity to 2496.53%.
- Maintains an $88 billion position in Level 3 assets, or 283% percent of shareholder equity.
There are only two solutions in my mind for what can happen to these firms. They can raise capital or sell themselves, perhaps for not very much.
The capital raises I foresee in the second quarter might be something for the record books. Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) may need to raise up to $20 billion this year through a combination of preferred, convertible preferred stock and equity to get their financial ratios into OFHEO compliance, as they are being asked to pick up the slack of the hundreds of mortgage lenders that have gone bad and the commercial banks that are now backing away from lending. I just read a news story where UBS (UBS) may need to raise upwards of $16 billion. Merrill, BankAmerica (BAC), Wachovia (WB), Morgan Stanley, HSBC (owner of Household Finance), and many others will not be far behind.
How long will market participants be available to buy all of this new paper? My general take is not for long.
Ouch! That's My ARS!
About a month back, I wrote an article entitled Pain in the ARS. ARS, or Auction Rate Securities are now beginning to make headlines and could prove extremely damaging to investors and the dealers that sold them to investors.
The securities yield a bit more than traditional money market funds and were considered "cash equivalents" when in reality they are very long term bonds that reset every so often, so long as there is a buyer and the auction doesn�t "fail" to attract enough buyers to reset the rate. What happens in a failed auction? The owner cannot get their money back from the brokerage firm�they simply have to stick it out until enough buyers are found to avoid failure.
When brokerage firms were flush with cash and making lots of money from traditional activities like investment banking, auctions never failed. The dealer simply stepped up and bought the remaining ARS and kept the auction from failing. These days, however, the dealers, like UBS (UBS), Merrill and Morgan Stanley are in dire need of capital themselves, leaving the investor to hold the security, perhaps for the entire duration, or 40 years.
This brings to light several important points. First, you are stuck in the security for possibly a long time, but failed auctions pay investors the "maximum rate" as defined by the prospectus, which on the surface sounds good. But in reality, most of the shares associated with closed end bond funds have a maximum rate of 110% of commercial paper.
Blackrock Muni Insured Floating Rate History
Blackrock Muni Insured Maturity Data
Note the "workout date" of 12/31/49. That is 41.75 years for those counting. And with the commercial paper index plummeting along with Fed Funds, I fully expect commercial paper rates to settle as low as 2%, which would net the ARS holder a whopping 2.2% and no liquidity.
So what is happening? UBS announced on Friday that it'll begin to mark the securities to market (as if there actually were a market). They haven�t yet disclosed their pricing methodology but I have one of my own. If someone asked me to buy this security, I would demand a yield of 10%. After all, I can buy agency preferred stock at 12% tax equivalent yield with loads of liquidity. Where would that bond trade? Yikes: something on the order of 23 cents on the dollar, as my table below shows.
Theoretical Price for a 2.2% ARS
There are actually some examples that are actually worse than this. Some student loan-backed ARS have reset to zero coupons. What would I pay for a forty year security with no yield? Zero.
The greedy are now being penalized. It's now possible that the good, the bad, the not-so-good and the ugly will all get hurt at once. Such is the unwinding of greed.
How long the Fed can keep the train on the tracks remains to be seen but I agree with Sedacca that it might not be too long. Capital impairments are simply too high, and the combination of rising unemployment, imploding commercial real estate, and homeowners walking away will be too much for lenders to handle. One or more major banks and broker dealers in addition to Bear Stearns will not survive the coming train wreck.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Interview with Kathleen Brush, Chief Marketing Officer, WebTrends
Kathleen: I have been in executive management in the software industry in the United States and abroad since 1988. During this time, I have held several CMO positions, including positions at Stamps.com and Websense. I have also been CEO and president of a few companies, including Rogue Wave Software and a division of Seagate Software. I have a Ph.D. in Management and International Studies and have taught international marketing at the graduate and undergraduate level. I have written two marketing and business-related books and have authored published articles on marketing and strategy.
Anil: What are the names of the books that you wrote and tell me a little about those books.
Kathleen: High-Tech Strategies in the Internet Era is an A � Z guide for strategy development for high tech products. It has been used at a couple of technical colleges. The book starts with helpful advice on how to go about the research process to identify new products. It then moves to validation, getting buy-in and execution through a technique called strategy deployment.
Watch Your Back is a book of fiction. I know how tedious it can be to read business books, so I decided to try to convey teachings about some of areas of business � most specifically, organizational behavior and the functioning of a board, which are not regularly taught � using a fictional approach.
Anil: Cool. Tell me about your new role at WebTrends?
Kathleen: I have quite a few objectives. I hope to position the WebTrends marketing organization as a showcase for optimizing digital marketing by using our products and those of our partners. The development of a new product strategy will include validating requirements for our current product portfolio and evaluating complementary additions that simplify the life of today's online and offline marketer.
I'd like to see the company increase communications that provide helpful advice for translating the data customers receive from our products into actionable changes to their marketing campaigns. I will also lead an effort to build up our presence in international markets, and an overall refresh of the WebTrends brand.
Anil: Tell me more about "I'd like to see the company increase communications that provide helpful advice for translating the data customers receive from our products into actionable changes to their marketing campaigns." Do you mean building strategic consulting practice or expanding partnership with strategic consulting companies like us or something else?
Kathleen: Something else. WebTrends wants to share our expertise with our customers. We will be putting together seminars, articles and white papers with the aim of helping clients and others to maximize the use of the data they receive from our products to improve the effectiveness of their marketing campaigns.
Anil: What are the challenges you see at WebTrends today?
Kathleen: The WebTrends brand is globally recognized as the pioneer of, and leader in, website analytics, but many do not equate WebTrends as being a leader and innovator in the broader industry of Enterprise Marketing Software (EMS). The process of refreshing our brand to be an innovative global EMS vendor is a challenge the entire company is enjoying.
Anil: What is your plan for overcoming this challenge?
Kathleen: We have developed a comprehensive strategy surrounding new product deliverables, the development of deeper domain experience, the creation of informative communications, the continuous improvement on the execution of world class online and offline marketing programs and building our international presence.
Anil: Where do you see web analytics market heading? What does future look like?
Kathleen: We see web analytics market advancing on a number of fronts: (1) Delivering in-depth, visitor-level intelligence that moves marketers closer to the ideal of one-to-one marketing; (2) Being able to more precisely measure customer engagement; (3) Going beyond analysis and reporting to delivering recommendations that improve results; (4) Being a central and foundational component to an integrated EMS solution; (5) Being a significant component in our customers' plans for company-wide business intelligence.
Anil: How is WebTrends positioning itself for the changing market?
Kathleen: By preparing product, marketing and company strategies that are in line with the evolution of the new EMS industry (as noted above) and that focus primarily on meeting the needs of WebTrends' current and future customers.
Anil: The theme of last year's WebTrends conference was customer engagement and WebTrends' Score product was showcased as the solution to measure visitor engagement. How are the customers embracing the WebTrends Score Product? Do you have any case studies that you can share?
Kathleen: Interest in the product has been very high. It is a brilliant solution for measuring customer engagement and permitting the segmentation of visitors into product/service preference areas that permit finely targeted follow-on campaigns. We do not have any published case studies for Score yet, but look forward to sharing those with you soon.
Anil: What is going to be the theme of this year's conference?
Kathleen: We're still finalizing the theme, but we will be sure to give you an update when it is finalized.
Anil: Finally, what do you think about Omniture? Their market position and all the acquisitions they are doing?
Kathleen: I have taught about the difficulties of acquiring companies and products: such as integrating disparate technologies and merging companies with varying cultures and processes. I think it is unlikely that Omniture will escape easily from many of the inherent problems in company acquisitions. Now, like most, I think integrated marketing software suites are something the market is looking for, but the key will be, as it always is, in the integrity of the integration. It's a question of marketecture vs. architecture. Can Omniture truly integrate the products they have acquired to deliver the synergistic value customers are really looking for? Or will this require an open architecture that easily permits exchanging data among EMS applications?
Anil: Great, I think true integration of the solutions is not going to happen. It will be more around creating an easy exchange of data. Thank you for your time.
Canon Rebel XSi/450D Review
There are a lot of new features packed into this camera:
12MP: This is the least exciting improvement. We do not favor the Megapixel war, dictated by marketing. But on the other side this camera seems to show that Canon can get more pixels while keeping image quality (see later).
Live View: This is so far the most complete Live View implementation in any Canon camera. We won't want to miss this new Live View.
- o It makes focusing in Live View possible. We actually use the Quick Mode: the camera flips the mirror down and uses the usual AF camera mode. The second method does not require the mirror to flip down and uses the same contrast method implemented in digicams. This unfortunately is quite slow.
- o Live view features a full color channel histogram to tune exposure
3" LCD
Improved larger Viewfinder view
Highlight Priority Mode14-bit RAW files
Uwe Steinmueller
more : outbackphoto
Canon Rebel XSi/450D Review
There are a lot of new features packed into this camera:
12MP: This is the least exciting improvement. We do not favor the Megapixel war, dictated by marketing. But on the other side this camera seems to show that Canon can get more pixels while keeping image quality (see later).
Live View: This is so far the most complete Live View implementation in any Canon camera. We won't want to miss this new Live View.
- o It makes focusing in Live View possible. We actually use the Quick Mode: the camera flips the mirror down and uses the usual AF camera mode. The second method does not require the mirror to flip down and uses the same contrast method implemented in digicams. This unfortunately is quite slow.
- o Live view features a full color channel histogram to tune exposure
3" LCD
Improved larger Viewfinder view
Highlight Priority Mode14-bit RAW files
Uwe Steinmueller
more : outbackphoto
Canon EF 24-105mm Review
Mounted on a full-frame body like the EOS 5D, the EF 24-105mm is an ideal general-purpose zoom lens for those who demand high quality, but how suitable is it on a cropped-frame body like the EOS 400D / XTi, EOS 450D / XSi and EOS 40D?
The build quality, mechanical performance, constant f4 aperture, focusing and stabilisation remain equally effective and applicable on cropped-frame bodies, but the range is of course very different. On a full-frame body, the EF 24-105mm takes you from decent wide-angle to short telephoto, whereas with the 1.6x field reduction of cropped frame, the range is transformed into a far less exciting 38-168mm. This takes you from modest wide angle to average telephoto coverage, thereby offering you neither true wide angle capabilities, nor anything genuinely powerful at the long end.
Gordon Laing
more : cameralabs
Canon EF 24-105mm Review
Mounted on a full-frame body like the EOS 5D, the EF 24-105mm is an ideal general-purpose zoom lens for those who demand high quality, but how suitable is it on a cropped-frame body like the EOS 400D / XTi, EOS 450D / XSi and EOS 40D?
The build quality, mechanical performance, constant f4 aperture, focusing and stabilisation remain equally effective and applicable on cropped-frame bodies, but the range is of course very different. On a full-frame body, the EF 24-105mm takes you from decent wide-angle to short telephoto, whereas with the 1.6x field reduction of cropped frame, the range is transformed into a far less exciting 38-168mm. This takes you from modest wide angle to average telephoto coverage, thereby offering you neither true wide angle capabilities, nor anything genuinely powerful at the long end.
Gordon Laing
more : cameralabs
DxO Optics Pro V5 Review
To me, the new user interface alone is worth updating. Until DxO 5 I kept wondering where some of the options were. Now I find them all easily and my workflow is a lot quicker and more intuitive. I focus on image optimization instead of trying to remember where everything is.
The new features of DxO 5 are also a big improvement. The noise reduction tool is a welcome addition that provides better noise removal than was available so far. It is of high interest to me because when I shoot 35mm digital I like to shoot handheld (I currently photograph with both 4x5 film and 35mm digital). Often, I need a small aperture to have a large depth of field and often the light level is low because I work at sunrise and sunset or because I find myself in a slot canyon or in other semi-dark places. The image in the screenshots above for example was taken at ISO 1600. I don�t expect DxO to remove all the noise in the image, but I have to say that version 5 certainly gives me cleaner files with less noise in the shadows.
Shadows receive very little exposure and are therefore a critical part of the image when it comes to noise removal. Because they feature very little detail, the image data in a high ISO shadow area is usually mostly noise. Having a raw converter that can remove noise as best as can be done is a serious asset in this situation.
My recommendation is to give DxO 5 a try. The free trial version makes this easy. Raw conversion is a quickly evolving field, and with version 5 DxO is making a very significant contribution to this field.
Alain Briot
more : luminous-landscape
DxO Optics Pro V5 Review
To me, the new user interface alone is worth updating. Until DxO 5 I kept wondering where some of the options were. Now I find them all easily and my workflow is a lot quicker and more intuitive. I focus on image optimization instead of trying to remember where everything is.
The new features of DxO 5 are also a big improvement. The noise reduction tool is a welcome addition that provides better noise removal than was available so far. It is of high interest to me because when I shoot 35mm digital I like to shoot handheld (I currently photograph with both 4x5 film and 35mm digital). Often, I need a small aperture to have a large depth of field and often the light level is low because I work at sunrise and sunset or because I find myself in a slot canyon or in other semi-dark places. The image in the screenshots above for example was taken at ISO 1600. I don�t expect DxO to remove all the noise in the image, but I have to say that version 5 certainly gives me cleaner files with less noise in the shadows.
Shadows receive very little exposure and are therefore a critical part of the image when it comes to noise removal. Because they feature very little detail, the image data in a high ISO shadow area is usually mostly noise. Having a raw converter that can remove noise as best as can be done is a serious asset in this situation.
My recommendation is to give DxO 5 a try. The free trial version makes this easy. Raw conversion is a quickly evolving field, and with version 5 DxO is making a very significant contribution to this field.
Alain Briot
more : luminous-landscape
Concept Art: How to draw Witch Hunter character design, sketch illustration for manga anime comics step by step video for anime comics.
Learn how to draw male hero character: Step by Step video tutorial. Learn from basic sketching to finish drawing quick concept for comics cartoon illustration, manga, anime. The video demonstrates how to quickly create an efficient concept design from concept idea into visual. How to put rough idea onto the paper sketch and create sci-fi character concept art online lesson for comics cartoon illustration, manga, and anime.
Here is a final sketch:
Here is a Video Process: How to draw a Witch Hunter
Drawing Software & Tools I used and recommended:
-Genius MousePen 6x8
-Wacom Intuos3 6X8 Pen Tablet
-Bamboo (Small) Pen Tablet (new from Wacom!) Economy for everyone.
Softwares:
-Gimp (Free Download)
-Adobe Photoshop CS2 (Professional software)
*You can just use pencil, paper, markers on this one...just practice rendering.
Feature Tutorial from idrawgirls.com:
New tutorials:
-How to draw Manga character female concept
-How to draw a vampire, male
-How to draw female character
-Drawing woman using Gimp 2.4 tutorial
-How to draw Dragon #012
-how to draw character design Dark Valkyrie.
-How to draw Mecha Tentacles War Mechine.
-How to draw Mecha Anime Girl sketch.
-How to draw Vampire
-How to draw Monster: Black Manta Creature
Photoshop & Wacom Tutorials:
-How to make a Photoshop custom brush #1
-How to make a Photoshop custom brush #2
-Photoshop Brushes, How to make metal texture brush. by Knuckles930
-Setting Up Wacom Intuo 3 tablet for Wide Screen by Knuckles930 (thanks!!!)
Thanks for all overwhelming e-mails guys!!! Due to the high volume of e-mails and questions, I apologized that I cannot usually reply to you within a day or two. I will try my best to answer them all personally and get all the questions answer either by Videos or Post.
Also check out the full length video tutorial download: how to draw character design, Dark Valkyrie.
** If you have any basic questions or specific please looked up Q/A section. Most of the time your questions has already been answered in Q/A. There are almost 200 tutorials vids on this site look them up.
Have a great day!
Sony HVR-Z7E Camcorder Reviewed
Sony HVR-Z7E Camcorder Reviewed
Here is the Sony HVR-Z7E camcorder review from TrustedReviews. Sony HVR-Z7E features a 12x Carl Zeiss Vario-Sonnar T* zoom lens, a 1.2 Megapixel progressive 3 ClearVid CMOS Sensor, and a 3.2-inch LCD display. The camcorder supports HDMI output and has i.Link connector. Sony HVR-Z7E uses CF as storage media.
TrustedReviews�s Verdict:
Sony�s embracing of solid state recording is a sign of how tape�s days as a primary recording medium are numbered, even if it�s still the most cost effective choice for long-term archiving. With its removable lens system and choice of recording systems, the HVR-Z7E is a great camcorder for electronic news gathering and independent filmmaking alike.
(Via iTech News Net.)
Sony HVR-Z7E Camcorder Reviewed
Sony HVR-Z7E Camcorder Reviewed
Here is the Sony HVR-Z7E camcorder review from TrustedReviews. Sony HVR-Z7E features a 12x Carl Zeiss Vario-Sonnar T* zoom lens, a 1.2 Megapixel progressive 3 ClearVid CMOS Sensor, and a 3.2-inch LCD display. The camcorder supports HDMI output and has i.Link connector. Sony HVR-Z7E uses CF as storage media.
TrustedReviews�s Verdict:
Sony�s embracing of solid state recording is a sign of how tape�s days as a primary recording medium are numbered, even if it�s still the most cost effective choice for long-term archiving. With its removable lens system and choice of recording systems, the HVR-Z7E is a great camcorder for electronic news gathering and independent filmmaking alike.
(Via iTech News Net.)
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Drawing Cute Animal and Critter: Black Bunny Rabbit using Gimp, basic tutorial.
Drawing critter lesson video free online lesson. Cartoon: Learn to draw cartoon angry cute bunny rabbit: Step by Step how to video tutorial lesson. Drawing and painting bunny rabbit cartoon: Step by Step from basic sketching to coloring online lesson for comics cartoon illustration, manga, anime.
Here is a final sketch:
Here is a video tutorial: How to draw cute black bunny rabbit using Gimp:
Drawing Software & Tools I used and recommended:
-Genius MousePen 6x8
-Wacom Intuos3 6X8 Pen Tablet
-Bamboo (Small) Pen Tablet (new from Wacom!) Economy for everyone.
Softwares:
-Gimp (Free Download)
-Adobe Photoshop CS2 (Professional software)
*You can just use pencil, paper, markers on this one...just practice rendering.
Feature Tutorial from idrawgirls.com:
New tutorials:
-How to draw Manga character female concept
-How to draw a vampire, male
-How to draw female character
-Drawing woman using Gimp 2.4 tutorial
-How to draw Dragon #012
-how to draw character design Dark Valkyrie.
-How to draw Mecha Tentacles War Mechine.
-How to draw Mecha Anime Girl sketch.
-How to draw Vampire
-How to draw Monster: Black Manta Creature
-How to draw Dragon #11
-Drawing and painting Voltron
Photoshop & Wacom Tutorials:
-How to make a Photoshop custom brush #1
-How to make a Photoshop custom brush #2
-Photoshop Brushes, How to make metal texture brush. by Knuckles930
-Setting Up Wacom Intuo 3 tablet for Wide Screen by Knuckles930 (thanks!!!)
Thanks for all overwhelming e-mails guys!!! Due to the high volume of e-mails and questions, I apologized that I cannot usually reply to you within a day or two. I will try my best to answer them all personally and get all the questions answer either by Videos or Post.
Also check out the full length video tutorial download: how to draw character design, Dark Valkyrie.
Have a great day!
Monday, Monday
House on 21st Street in Lubbock, Texas by Urs Peter Flueckiger.
Some unrelated links for your enjoyment:
The 2008 Priztker Prize
Goes to Jean Nouvel.
City Bites
"Manhattan-based reporter Alec Appelbaum explores the details, context and personalities transforming New York's architecture." (added to sidebar under blogs::architecture)
e-architect
"World Architecture - News + Buildings + Architects + Photos." (added to sidebar under architectural links::online journals)
W(e are ) here: Mapping the Human Experience
"Intermedia Arts and Solutions Twin Cities team up to creatively explore the intersections of communication, technology, and aesthetics. This unique multi-media exhibit invites you to explore and interact with the information around you through data visualization, artistic expression, and interactive installations." Running from March 31 - May 9.
The Fed And The Henhouse
Socialist-style Fed or financial saviour?Comrade Ben - Reluctant Revolutionary
The cover of the latest issue of BusinessWeek shows Ben Bernanke in profile against a bright red and orange backdrop, pensively stroking his grey beard and looking remarkably like Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.
The imagery is intentional and pointed.
"Comrade Ben is determined that there will be no financial meltdown and no depression while he is in command," economist Ed Yardeni wrote to clients. "Given the initial reaction [on Wall Street], I suppose this means we are all financial socialists now."
Guaranteeing Bear Stearns' portfolio of troubled investments sets a bad precedent by transferring potential losses from the market to taxpayers, complained Allan Meltzer, a professor of political economy at Pittsburgh's Carnegie Mellon University.
"I do not believe the current system can remain if the bankers make the profits and the taxpayers share the losses."
Fed Calls Regulatory Overhaul "Timely"
Reuters is reporting Treasury regulatory overhaul plan "timely".
Upcoming Treasury Department proposals to make the Federal Reserve the chief regulator of U.S. financial markets and give it sweeping new powers won praise on Saturday from the central bank and the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission.Let's Take a Look at "Timely"
"The Treasury's report presents a timely and thoughtful analysis and is an important first step in the complex task of modernizing our financial and regulatory architecture. We look forward to working with the Congress and others to help develop a policy framework that will enhance financial and economic stability," a Federal Reserve spokeswoman said.
- Housing is imploding.
- There are $500 Trillion in derivatives that no one can possibly understand the financial risks on.
- A huge portion of those derivatives are with JP Morgan (JPM).
- Bear Stearns stock went from $170 to $10 in a year in Shotgun Wedding between Bear Stearns and JP Morgan arranged by the Fed
- Questions Linger Over Lehman's Balance Sheet as Lehman Brothers (LEH) is leveraged 31.7 times.
- Citigroup (C) had to be bailed out by Abu Dhabi Deal Raises Questions About Citigroup's Health
- Merrill Lynch needed $6.6 Billion Bailout From Kuwait, Mizuho.
- Cost of Capital "Ratchets Up" at Citigroup and Merrill
- Morgan Stanley (MS) sold 9.9% of the firm to China after handing out huge bonuses.
- People are walking away from homes
- Businesses Are Advised To Walk Away from agreed upon deals.
- There is an open public debate on Moral Obligations Of Walking Away
- 1 in 10 of the entire state of Ohio is on food stamps.
- Florida, Ohio, and Michigan are in an economic depression.
- There is No market for Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP)
- German Banks Fears Global Meltdown caused by US subprime debt
- There is a $1.1 Trillion HELOC Problem
- Unemployment is poised to soar.
- Commercial real estate is massively overbuilt and poised to plunge.
- Goldman Sachs (GS) is calling for another $460 billion in writedowns.
- The SEC Openly Invites Corporations To Lie.
Who is to blame for the mess we are in?
And who is to blame? The Fed course, with help of Congress, and the SEC.
Congress passed legislation to create GSEs to foster affordable housing. Now the definition of "affordable" is over $700,000, and calls to reduce the role of the Fannie Mae are now calls to increase the role of Fannie Mae in the wake of the housing crisis. There were 300 some programs to create affordable housing and every program made the situation worse. All those programs really amounted to was handouts to the building industry and banks.
And if Congress would stop wasting money on needless programs the dollar would stop sinking. Of course the government is wasting trillions of dollars trying to be the world's policeman, a role we can no longer afford.
The SEC in its infinitely poor wisdom, decided to give government sponsorship to Moody's, Fitch, and the S&P and this led to extremely risky garbage being rated AAA. I talked about this problem in Time To Break Up The Credit Rating Cartel.
But the Fed deserves the brunt of the blame for micro-managing interest rates like some central planners from the Soviet Union. The Fed does not know how to set the correct price for money (interest rates) any more than it knows how to set the correct price for orange juice. Only free market forces can properly set prices so that economic distortions do not occur.
Unfortunately, every problem Greenspan faced was an excuse to cut interest rates. Even non-problems like the silly Y2K (year 2000) scare was an excuse to cut rates.
When the dotcom bubble collapsed, the Fed slashed interest rates to 1% to get the economy moving again. The housing bubble was the result. Greenspan added more fuel to the fire along the way by openly praising ARMs and derivatives.
Greenspan May 5th 2005: "Perhaps the clearest evidence of the perceived benefits that derivatives have provided is their continued spectacular growth."
I compared Greenspan to Buffett in Who's Holding The Bag?
Buffett in stark contrast to Greenspan called the explosive use of derivatives an "investment time bomb".
It's perfectly clear now who was right. For those who have not pieced the story together properly, it was fear of a dominoes style chain reaction collapse of Credit Default Swaps starting with Bear Stearns that caused Bernanke to force a shotgun wedding between Bear Stearns and JP Morgan.
So what does the Treasury Department propose? The Orwellian answer of course is to give the Fed still more power to wreak havoc.
The Fed And The Henhouse
The New York Times is reporting In Treasury Plan, a Reluctant Eye Over Wall Street.
The Bush administration is proposing the broadest overhaul of Wall Street regulation since the Great Depression. But the plan, to be unveiled on Monday, has its genesis in a yearlong effort to limit Washington�s role in the market.Inquiring minds can read through a 15 page Summary of Treasury�s Regulatory Proposal should they so desire. But here is the sad state of affairs:
The regulatory umbrella created in the 1930s would grow wider, with power concentrated in fewer agencies. But that authority would be limited, doing virtually nothing to regulate the many new financial products whose unwise use has been a culprit in the current financial crisis.
The plan hands vast new authority to the Federal Reserve, essentially formalizing what has been an improvised process over the last three weeks. But some fear that the central bank�s role in creating the current mess will undercut its ability to clean it up.
�The Fed oversaw this meltdown,� said Michael Greenberger, a law professor at the University of Maryland who was a senior official of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission during the Clinton administration. �This is the equivalent of the builders of the Maginot line giving lessons on defense.�
The Fed�s former chairman, Alan Greenspan, for years praised the growth in the derivatives market as a boon for market stability, and resisted calls to use the Fed�s power to increase regulation of the mortgage market.
The biggest, most reckless credit experiment in history has started to implode. It's far too late to stop a complete systemic collapse now. Granting new powers to the agency most responsible for the mess simply does not make any sense.
In the long run, the only solution is to abolish the Fed, end government sponsorship of the ratings agencies, and return to sound monetary policies in Congress with a currency backed by hard assets instead of promises.
Instead, the proposal is to give Fed increased authority to watch over additional henhouses. And if there's one thing worse than the fox watching the henhouse, it's the Fed watching the henhouse. A quick look at history should be enough to convince anyone of that.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Book Review: Corrugated Iron
W. W. Norton
Hardcover, 224 pages
When one hears the term corrugated iron (or the more contemporary corrugated metal or corrugated aluminum) a few conflicting images pop to mind: large industrial buildings, third-world shanty towns, Quonset huts, and the houses of Glenn Murcutt. Ranging from small to large, quick to labored, amateur to professional, and embracing other apparent opposites, the authors in this history/contemporary presentation of the material determine that what these applications have in common is the frontier. Since its invention in the early 19th century, and its use in London's docks and train stations, the material has always found itself on the margins, seen by people then and now as lacking dignity, expressing poverty, and looking just plain ugly. While this book presents a number of contemporary beauties by the likes of Murcutt, it does not try to convince the reader of corrugated iron's merits. Rather the book traces the material's somewhat troubled history and outlines ways in which it can continue to be used in architecture and other building.
The heavily-illustrated, large-format book chronologically presents the story of corrugated iron from its 1829 patent, through its boom after the original patent expired, its varied application on America's so-called frontier, its wartime use, to informal settlements and contemporary architecture. Each chapter focusing on one of these themes presents "case studies" alongside the historical text, giving the book an alternative read for those not interested in a thorough history of the material.
For this reviewer, the two most interesting parts of the book are the last two: corrugated iron's use in informal communities and in contemporary architecture. These two polarities of the contemporary condition -- one out of necessity, one out of alternative expression or budget-consciousness -- are certainly two different types of frontiers, with the acceptance of the latter not being shared by one of the former...though it depends who you talk to. The apparently ugly or destitute nature of shantytowns is a view shared by those who are closer to living in a Glenn Murcutt house than living in the slums of Brazil or Nigeria, a similar alignment of corrugated iron's critics in the 19th century. Has anything been learned in the last 175 years? Has the intelligent use of the material in disaster housing and even museums altered the course of thought towards corrugated iron? The contemporary examples here show an unabated use of the material in a variety of ways, embodying one aspect of the frontier that silences those critics: a lack of concern in what others think.
or
The $1.1 Trillion HELOC Problem
Americans owe a staggering $1.1 trillion on home equity loans � and banks are increasingly worried they may not get some of that money back.The article notes that 5.7 percent of home equity lines of credit were delinquent or in default in December 2007, up from 4.5 percent in 2006, according to Moody�s Economy.com. It's not unreasonable to assume with the the recession picking up steam that 10-15% of those $1 trillion in HELOCs and second mortgages will default. If so, add another $100-$150 billion in writeoffs. That number can easily be low.
When borrowers default on their mortgages, lenders foreclose and sell the homes to recoup their money. But when homes sell for less than the value of their mortgages and home equity loans � a situation known as a short sale � lenders with first liens must be compensated fully before holders of second or third liens get a dime.
In places like California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, where home prices have fallen significantly, second-lien holders can be left with little or nothing once first mortgages are paid.
Consider Randy and Dawn McLain of Phoenix. The couple decided to sell their home after falling behind on their first mortgage from Chase and a home equity line of credit from CitiFinancial last year, after Randy McLain retired because of a back injury. The couple owed $370,000 in total.
After three months, the couple found a buyer willing to pay about $300,000 for their home
CitiFinancial, which was owed $95,500, rejected the offer because it would have paid off the first mortgage in full but would have left it with a mere $1,000, after fees and closing costs, on the credit line.
�If it goes into foreclosure, which it is very likely to do anyway, you wouldn�t get anything,� said J. D. Dougherty, a real estate agent who represented the buyer on the transaction.
Underscoring the difficulties likely to arise from home equity loans, a Democratic proposal in Congress to refinance troubled mortgages and provide them with government backing specifically excludes second liens. Lenders holding a second lien would be required to write off their debts before the first loan could be refinanced. That could leave out a significant number of loans, analysts say.
People with weak, or subprime, credit could be hurt the most. More than a third of all subprime loans made in 2006 had associated second-lien debt, up from 17 percent in 2000, according to Credit Suisse. And many people added second loans after taking out first mortgages, so it is impossible to say for certain how many homeowners have multiple liens on their properties.
�This is turning out to be a real impediment to solving this problem,� said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, �at least, solving it quickly.�
The Latest Fad
Arizona Central is reporting about the latest fad: Hunting for foreclosure deals.
During the housing boom, investors flocked to metro Phoenix and climbed onto buses that took them to the Valley's fringes, where they checked out affordable new homes they could buy low and sell high.My comment: Insanity never stops. Wake me up when flippers give up.
Now, the bus tours to those edge suburbs are starting again. But this time, home buyers are looking for foreclosure properties they can flip for a fast profit.
The Valley's foreclosure-buying spree started with auctions last fall. Late-night infomercials turned from buying homes with little down to foreclosure-investing. Daylong foreclosure-investing seminars in Valley hotel conference rooms, including sessions held by Trump University, began filling up in January. Smaller bus tours put on by local real-estate agents are going on most weekends now, and a national group called Foreclosure Bus Tours today will hold its first daylong event in the Phoenix area.My Comment: There is no foreclosure buying spree. However, there are a bunch of "Trump Artists" making money promoting the idea.
"Foreclosure-investing is the real-estate buzzword now," said Eric Brown, a former Phoenix home builder who is a managing director of real-estate consulting firm Robert Charles Lesser & Co. "Huge investment companies and individuals are looking to pick up properties cheap."My Comment: I would advise staying away from anything that becomes the "buzzword".
Foreclosure Bus Tours has shuttled investors around Detroit, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and Boston, and it has tours planned in Dallas and Houston as well as Maryland and Connecticut. For $97, investors get lunch and check out several foreclosure properties. Usually, a local real-estate agent and mortgage broker is on the bus to get deals going.My Comment: For $97 you get to listen to real estate shill pitch crappy deals to a captive audience.
"Last time around, it was the amateurs who believed the infomercials and used all the home equity in their own homes to buy rental properties," said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies in the Morrison School at Arizona State University Polytechnic.My Comment: People flying in from Chicago or wherever and don't know the local conditions are going to get taken. The local professionals don't need a tour bus.
"Now, many of those houses are in foreclosure and selling to a similar group of investors."
Most Valley homes in foreclosure don't have any equity left because of falling home values. More than 95 percent of the houses going into foreclosure are going back to the lender because no one wants to bid on the houses with upside-down loans, which are worth less than what is owed on them.My Comment: That is another gotcha. Banks want their investment back no matter how unrealistic that is.
Some homeowners are trying to avoid foreclosure by doing short sales. But Brett Barry of Realty Executives said many lenders aren't willing to negotiate, particularly on home-equity loans or second mortgages, and that is forcing more people into foreclosures.My Comment: There's the home equity/second mortgage trap again. It is preventing deals from getting done. Second lien holders want something. Why should they approve a deal and get nothing out of it? First lien holders are being too stubborn. Bankruptcies will result instead of short sales. Everyone loses.
Lenders won't deal
"Lenders just won't deal, and it makes no sense because it's only going to cost them more money, particularly when the houses are going for so cheap at auctions," Barry said.
Diane Drain, a Phoenix bankruptcy and foreclosure attorney, is seeing the same thing. She said she is working with two to three investors a day who are going to lose homes to foreclosure because lenders won't negotiate with them.My Comment: Finally, we see some practical advice.
She cautions people investing in foreclosures to spend only money they can afford to lose.
"If it's money you would take to Vegas and drop on a table, then invest it in foreclosure properties," Drain said. "But if it's your retirement account or home equity, don't touch it. I am seeing too many people now who are losing everything because they invested in homes they thought they could flip for a profit."
Key Points
- The idea that one can buy foreclosures and flip them quickly for a profit is complete silliness. There is simply to much inventory. Exactly who is the flipper going to flip to?
- Banks are still holding out for too much money on foreclosed properties.
- Second mortgages are preventing deals from getting done.
- Refusal to deal is hurting all the parties involved and increases losses on the first lien holder.
- Refusal to work out short sales will increase bankruptcies.
- Bills to alleviate this mess will fail because Congress excluded second liens. Actually, no matter what Congress does it will fail. The best thing Congress can do is nothing.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Saturday, March 29, 2008
How to draw Manga character concept art, woman or female step by step and video tutorial lesson
Learn from basic construction sketching to finish drawing quick gesture concept for comics cartoon illustration, manga, anime. Quick and easy instruction from drawing face and body: Head and shoulder.
Here is a final sketch:
Here is a video tutorial:
How to draw Manga Concept Character Design.
Drawing Software & Tools I used and recommended:
-Genius MousePen 6x8
-Wacom Intuos3 6X8 Pen Tablet
-Bamboo (Small) Pen Tablet (new from Wacom!) Economy for everyone.
Softwares:
-Gimp (Free Download)
-Adobe Photoshop CS2 (Professional software)
*You can just use pencil, paper, markers on this one...just practice rendering.
Feature Tutorial from idrawgirls.com:
New tutorials:
-How to draw a vampire, male
-How to draw female character
-Drawing woman using Gimp 2.4 tutorial
-How to draw Dragon #012
-how to draw character design Dark Valkyrie.
-How to draw Mecha Tentacles War Mechine.
-How to draw Mecha Anime Girl sketch.
-How to draw Vampire
-How to draw Monster: Black Manta Creature
-How to draw Dragon #11
-Drawing and painting Voltron
Photoshop & Wacom Tutorials:
-How to make a Photoshop custom brush #1
-How to make a Photoshop custom brush #2
-Photoshop Brushes, How to make metal texture brush. by Knuckles930
-Setting Up Wacom Intuo 3 tablet for Wide Screen by Knuckles930 (thanks!!!)
Thanks for all overwhelming e-mails guys!!! Due to the high volume of e-mails and questions, I apologized that I cannot usually reply to you within a day or two. I will try my best to answer them all personally and get all the questions answer either by Videos or Post.
Also check out the full length video tutorial download: how to draw character design, Dark Valkyrie.
Have a great day!
SEC Openly Invites Corporations To Lie
Floyd Norris at the New York Times writes If Market Prices Are Too Low, Ignore Them.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is out today with a letter to companies that own a lot of financial instruments whose current market value must be reported to shareholders. For more than a few companies, disclosing market values is neither easy nor convenient.Naked Capitalism wrote an excellent piece on this today called SEC Gives Permission to Fudge Mark-to-Market.
The issue is the application of SFAS 157, which governs the way companies compute fair value of assets. The rule sets out three categories of assets, with different ways to value them. Category 1 includes assets with easily observable market values. I.B.M. stock closed today at $114.57, and it is not easy to justify a different value if your quarter ended today. Category 2 is a little fuzzier, where there are observable markets that provide a good guide to prices of your asset, even though there is no direct market. And then there is Category 3, which is essentially mark to model.
But one part of the letter stood out to me, providing an excuse for companies to ignore a market value if they don�t like it (italics added):
�Under SFAS 157, it is appropriate for you to consider actual market prices, or observable inputs, even when the market is less liquid than historical market volumes, unless those prices are the result of a forced liquidation or distress sale. Only when actual market prices, or relevant observable inputs, are not available is it appropriate for you to use unobservable inputs which reflect your assumptions of what market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability.�
That sounds to me like an invitation to fudge. Some people on Wall Street think that nearly every sale today is a forced sale. There are entire categories of collateralized debt obligations where most, if not all, of the trades, occur because a holder has received, or expects, a margin call.
In the last couple of months, there has been increased worry that mark-to-market accounting leads to the operation of a destructive "financial accelerator." As prevailing values go down, banks have to lower the value of their holdings. This leads to a direct hit to their net worth, which will lead them to contract their balance sheets, either by withholding credit or selling assets. More sales in a weak market lead to further declines in the prices of financial instruments, leading to more writedowns and sales of inventory.Let's sum this all up. Corporations were happy to mark to market as long as asset prices were going up. This led to more loans on top of loans as corporations were making huge profits, at least on paper. Enormous bonuses were handed out based on those paper profits and corporations leveraged up loans.
Funny how no one had a problem with mark-to-market when asset prices were rising.
But now the SEC has given banks and brokers a huge out. No matter how small or easily absorbed by the market a forced sale might be (think of a hedge fund hit by a margin call), a financial institution can ignore the price realized. In fact, they get to determine what trades constitute a forced sale.
Moreover, we've seen plenty of unintended consequences, or worse, backfires, as regulators intervene trying to alleviate the credit crisis. Banks have been reluctant to extend credit to each other precisely because they don't trust their creditworthiness. That's tantamount to saying they already don't trust their public financial statements, since according to their public filings, virtually all major financial institutions have more than the required statutory capital.
So this move, to stem the balance-sheet-shrinking impact of mark-to-market accounting in a falling price environment, may further undermine liquidity. Companies will less able to judge whether their published financials are telling the whole story, And where the numbers are in doubt, rumors are taken more seriously.
To paraphrase Winston Churchill, it has been said that mark to market accounting is the worst form of financial accounting except for all the others that have been tried. But it looks like we are going to try them anyhow.
Now we see those profits were nothing but a mirage.
Of course everyone knew those earnings were a mirage even at the time, but as long as the party was going on, no one wanted to spoil it, especially the Fed and the SEC. So the SEC looked away, and so did the Fed, and so did investors who were happy with everything as long as stock prices were going up.
In the asymmetrical world of the Fed and the SEC bubbles are never prevented, but everything is done to prevent them from busting. Now the SEC is openly inviting corporation to lie.
Disclosure that was fine on the way up is somehow not fine on the way down.
In the end all this does is create more mistrust and suspicion about what is real and what is imaginary. That suspicion may be more damaging than actual disclosure and may also create big temporary inequities between corporations that decide to come clean vs. those who keep sneaking more garbage into Category 3 assets, while pretending those assets are worth more than they are.
Nonetheless, if there was a futures market on pretending, "pretending futures" would be a screaming buy. To paraphrase Martha Stewart "That's not a good thing".
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Canon - Possible Camera Shake Correction Japan releases April 3
The ability to recruit slim Canon camera shake correction �95 IXY DIGITAL IS� launch in the Japanese market on April 3.
This product is three times the 10 million pixel CCD sensor and an optical sensitivity of ISO 1600 jumrenjeureul equipped with digital cameras, the best possible support, and even the speed of 30 frames per second is possible with a video camera. In addition, 230,000-pixel LCD screen, 3 inches, and SD memory card slots mounted Jobs said. 91.6 * 20.9 * 56.8mm size, weight 130g. [aving]
Consumer prices are expected 42,000 yen (approximately 417,000 won Hanwha).
Demonstration Version of Phocus Now Released
A few Phocus highlights to pay particular attention to:
- The unsurpassed quality of the processed images, including corrections for DAC, Color, and Moir�.
- The "What you see is what you get" quality of the Viewer images, matching what you will see in Photoshop.
- The powerful camera controls, including new tools for remote focusing during tethered operation.
- The amazing workflow flexibility based upon the multitude of GUI layout options.
- The innovative use of the extensive Metadata, which includes full IPTC Core and GPS coordinates from Hasselblad Global Image Locator that linkdirectly into Google Earth.
- Other leading edge technology, including new a Moir� filter that works directly on the raw image data.
We are proud to be able to launch this exciting addition to the Hasselblad family and eager for photographers to get their hands on the software. Once again, this is the Demonstration Version of Phocus, not a final release version, and as such, certain minor bugs or issues may stil be present. Please check the read-me file for specific details concerning bugs or known issues.
Best regards and happy shooting!
Peter Stig-Nielsen
Hasselblad Product Management
source : hasselblad
Demonstration Version of Phocus Now Released
A few Phocus highlights to pay particular attention to:
- The unsurpassed quality of the processed images, including corrections for DAC, Color, and Moir�.
- The "What you see is what you get" quality of the Viewer images, matching what you will see in Photoshop.
- The powerful camera controls, including new tools for remote focusing during tethered operation.
- The amazing workflow flexibility based upon the multitude of GUI layout options.
- The innovative use of the extensive Metadata, which includes full IPTC Core and GPS coordinates from Hasselblad Global Image Locator that linkdirectly into Google Earth.
- Other leading edge technology, including new a Moir� filter that works directly on the raw image data.
We are proud to be able to launch this exciting addition to the Hasselblad family and eager for photographers to get their hands on the software. Once again, this is the Demonstration Version of Phocus, not a final release version, and as such, certain minor bugs or issues may stil be present. Please check the read-me file for specific details concerning bugs or known issues.
Best regards and happy shooting!
Peter Stig-Nielsen
Hasselblad Product Management
source : hasselblad
AIPTEK launching Z300 HD-V palm-sized HD camcorder
AIPTEK launching Z300 HD-V palm-sized HD camcorder
AIPTEK has announced its new Z300 HD-V palm-sized camcorder, offering high definition recording on a budget.
It can record in 720p format (1,280 x 720 resolution) at up to 30 frames per second, and can take up to a 32GB SDHC card for storing the footage...
(Via Tech Digest.)
AIPTEK launching Z300 HD-V palm-sized HD camcorder
AIPTEK launching Z300 HD-V palm-sized HD camcorder
AIPTEK has announced its new Z300 HD-V palm-sized camcorder, offering high definition recording on a budget.
It can record in 720p format (1,280 x 720 resolution) at up to 30 frames per second, and can take up to a 32GB SDHC card for storing the footage...
(Via Tech Digest.)
ABCP Catch 22 In Canada
A short synopsis is that Canadian investors thought they were buying short term high quality commercial paper were actually buying subprime mortgage garbage from the US. In a complicated sets of twists and turns, the paper has been frozen since last August, as the value of the paper plummeted.
Bailout plan after bailout plan missed deadlines. All of the bailout plans have revolved around converting short term paper to long term paper, and even then with a loss. The amount frozen is approximately $33 billion. Following is a report on just one piece of the frozen debt.
On March 20, the Vancouver Sun reported Investors face a Catch-22 on ABCP.
Investors in British Columbia who put their money - and faith - in a Vancouver brokerage house, are now caught up in a financial nightmare. Canaccord Capital Inc. put about 1,400 clients, many of them from B.C., in ill-fated asset-backed commercial paper. Those investors, and their almost $270 million worth of savings, have been stuck in a legal limbo since the paper was frozen last August.The interesting twist is that the plan requires voter approval and it's one vote per person affected. The Sun notes that "retail investors hold only a small portion of the total amount in jeopardy, they outnumber the approximately 100 institutional investors at least 15 to one."
And now with a proposal to resolve the ABCP freeze expected to be sent to note-holders next month, the investors are faced with a Catch-22.
Under the plan, reached March 17, the short-term paper would be converted into new notes maturing as late as 2017. Once trading resumes, the new notes will likely trade at 60 cents to 80 cents on the dollar, according to analysts. For that discount, investors may have to give up the right to sue the banks, rating agencies and investment dealers who got them into the mess in the first place.
Or they could hold what were supposed to be short-term investments for eight years and hope to regain the full amount of their investment at that time.
The alternative is to vote against the plan, see the value of the notes drop even further, yet retain the right to spend thousands of dollars in legal fees, and years in court, to try to get their money back.
It's a lose-lose situation for investors who thought they were in risk-free, conservative investments.
I can't help but laugh at this: "Last week, Canaccord hired an ABCP expert to advise its clients on the proposal."
Gee... Any idea what that "expert" is going to say? I think I do, and here it is with my translation as to the real meaning at the same time.
Expert Statement: "We recommend taking this deal as a fair and honest solution. It's the best we can do under the circumstances and it's time to put this behind us and move forward."
Translation: "You are damned if you do and damned if you don't. Either way you are damned. However, we recommend you take this deal right away because it protects us from further liability. Please sign on the dotted line now and we will throw in a free toaster."
Question: Why is Canaccord hiring an ABCP expert now instead of before investing in this stupid scheme?
Answer: They had no idea what they were doing then. They know full well what they are doing now... trying to protect their own hide. So they hired an expert that is all but guaranteed to give the answer they want to hear.
Coastal Community Credit Union Woes
On March 22 the Vancouver Sun wrote about Worried Investors at Coastal Community Credit Union.
Baumel, of Qualicum Beach, is one of an unknown number of credit union members across Canada who were put into ill-fated asset-back commercial paper through Credential Securities Inc., the credit unions' investment dealer. Yet now that the paper has gone bad, Baumel said the credit union is not willing to give him his money back.New Plan For Small ABCP holders
Baumel is in real estate, so he has enough risky investments. That's why he wanted his savings to be in something 100-per-cent safe. At first it was in an account at the credit union, but that earned no interest, so the credit union -- Coastal Community Credit Union -- advised him to go to Credential. There he put his money in what he believed was a high-interest savings account.
But when Baumel went to withdraw $100,000 of his $365,000 portfolio last August to lend to a colleague as part of a business deal, he was given the bad news -- the money had been frozen.
Baumel had never heard of commercial paper, but if he had been told he was in asset-backed or mortgage-backed investments, he says he would have turned it down. He already had enough exposure to that risk with his real estate investments, Baumel said.
What makes Baumel "profoundly disappointed" is that despite the fact he told Credential to invest in something that was 100-per-cent safe, he ended up with ABCPs. And the credit union has refused to assure him he won't be out of pocket when the issue is resolved, Baumel said.
Other than Credential, Canaccord is the only investment dealer known to have not yet made a deal to indemnify its clients. While it is unknown how much Credential customers hold, Baumel was told that his credit union has about 12 clients in his situation, with a total of between $2 million to $3 million invested.
On March 28 Reuters reported Plan in works to help small Canadian ABCP holders.
A relief plan to assist individual owners of frozen Canadian asset-backed commercial paper is in the works, but it is moving more slowly than participants hoped, Canaccord Capital Inc Chief Operating Officer Mark Maybank said Friday.Canaccord promises to make a deal with angry investors
"A lot of people are working very diligently ... we continue to work with others to put together that plan," Maybank said in an interview. "It's not finished, it's certainly taking longer than we or anyone else would like, but we think we're getting closer."
Some retail investors are upset with a proposal to restructure C$32 billion ($31.4 billion) of asset-backed notes that were issued by various non-bank-sponsored trusts. This segment of the commercial paper market collapsed last summer.
Retail noteholders, most of them Canaccord clients, outnumber institutional investors with big holdings, so they could kill the seven-month-long ABCP restructuring effort next month if a majority votes against the proposal.
The relief plan could offer extra liquidity to small ABCP investors who receive new, restructured notes. But it is "doubtful" the plan will be finalized before public information meetings on the main restructuring proposal begin next week, Maybank said. He declined to name the other parties in the talks. The Globe and Mail newspaper said "a group of Canadian financial institutions" was involved.
Small investors face tough choices as they ponder the restructuring proposal: receive new notes and wait years to recover their funds; sell the new notes at potentially steep discounts in a secondary market; or vote against it and try to recover their money through litigation.
Some 1,400 of an estimated 1,800 retail noteholders are clients of Canaccord. The investment dealer has said it cannot afford to buy out their ABCP positions, totaling about C$270 million.
Another 335 investors, who are with Credential Securities Inc., an investment dealer for various Canadian credit unions, collectively own C$48 million of the seized-up paper.
Credential said this week that it is exploring avenues to ensure that its investors "receive the maximum possible value from their investments." One option under discussion calls for retail investors' holdings to be bought for a set percentage of their initial investments.
"It depends a bit on the type and nature of the client, different clients have different needs, but we would be able to guarantee a certain percentage," Canaccord's Maybank said. "That would certainly be one of our preferred ways to go forward."
The cost of settling with individual ABCP investors is low in the grand scheme of the restructuring, so large stakeholders will probably step up, a bank analyst said Thursday. "We believe that small investors have less than C$500 million of the total balance but the majority of the votes," BMO Capital Markets analyst Ian de Verteuil said in a research note.
Assuming that a successful ABCP restructuring allowed 85 percent recovery on the paper, the cost of settling with small investors would only be C$75 million, de Verteuil said."We have no idea who will bear the costs of settling this situation but are confident that some of the larger stakeholders will," the analyst wrote.
On March 28 Canaccord promises to make a deal with angry investors.
Canaccord Capital Corp. said it's willing to come to an agreement with clients who were told the asset-backed commercial paper they bought was guaranteed. And for any other clients, the Vancouver brokerage is trying to set up a pool of funds that will enable investors to sell their notes at a set price.Magic Words
Canaccord has 1,400 clients who have invested almost $270 million in the ABCPs. Last week a number of those clients complained to The Vancouver Sun that they had been sold the investments as equivalent to guaranteed investment certificates.
Mark Maybank, Canaccord's chief operating officer, said to suggest the notes were sold as GICs was "patently untrue."
"It's a higher yielding money market product," he said. "It does not have the word 'guaranteed' in it."
But if clients were told it was a guaranteed investment then that's a breach of the rules governing brokerage houses and Canaccord is willing to talk about possible remedies with them, he said.
Ron Lawley, a 72-year-old retiree from Nanaimo, has more than $200,000 tied up, which he says he told his broker to put into Canadian treasury bills. He's been writing and telephoning Canaccord compliance since December, without any resolution to date, though he remains hopeful.
But he won't take anything less than all his money back plus interest, he said.
"And if I don't get that, I am definitely going to be voting no on this accord," he said.
Angela Speller, who has her life savings in ABCPs at Canaccord, said she has not received a response from Canaccord to her complaint earlier this month.
"[But] I would like the entire sum of money," Speller said. "After all I didn't put my money in anything that was risky. I was told it was triple A."
Ron Lawley used the magic words: "T-Bills". If it can be proven that is what he said, his broker should be in deep trouble for not doing what was stated. The question is whether or not it can be proven what Lawley said. Nonetheless, I suspect Lawley will be believed unless a phone recording proves otherwise.
On the other hand, Angela Speller used the wrong words: "AAA". There is no guarantee on "AAA" and that may prove to be a very expensive lesson depending on what Canaccord decides to do with "small investors".
85% Recovery Rate Doubtful
Odds of an 85% recovery rate that was mentioned earlier are extremely doubtful. Besides, 85% "recovery" some 7-9 years down the road in 2015-2017 is simply not 85% recovery no matter how much whitewashing is done.
It will be interesting to see just what is offered to small investors and in what timeframes. To secure the necessary votes to unfreeze this mess some concessions do appear likely for "small" investors. "Small" may simply mean just small enough to secure enough votes to get this deal passed. Anyone too big, is likely going to be very unhappy with the result.
No matter what the offer, this setup seems more like a No Win Situation or a Hobson's Choice (accepting the offer or eventually getting nothing after years of legal fees), than it does a Catch 22.
Thanks to Deb Wot, a teacher in the Canadian Northwest Territories, for helping compile links used in this article. Deb's blog is Making Sense of my World.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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