Short Range January 22-23The above commentary and chart are courtesy of wxrisk.com. A more detailed version of the above weather map can be found at http://www.wxrisk.com/MODELFOLDERS/today/test8.gif
It was a cold morning over the Plains.... with temps single digits and some below zero readings as well... and these below zero readings reached into all of CO and WY. The Midwest was not nearly as cold.
If you saw the BEARS vs. SAINTS playoff game late Sunday afternoon - early evening then you saw the heavy snow showers over Chicago. That was part of a new Arctic cold front that was sweeping through the Midwest and headed for the East coast. That front will arrive Tuesday and bring in a reinforcing shot of cold air -- Below Normal -- to the Northeast Quadrant -- the NE and ECB area combined -- for Tuesday and Wednesday. The heart of this cold air will NOT affect the Plains or Deep South. Those area will certainly NOT be mild but not nearly as cold as the Great Lakes and Northeast either.
On the West coast the strong Ridge in the Jet stream holds all this week so most of the West coast will stay mild / warm and dry even in the Pacific NW. By next Sunday the model show that ridge getting MUCH stronger which has major implications for the eastern half of the continental US in week 2.
Medium Range January 24 - 28
If you recall from late last week last SOME of the weather Models were showing a major Low developing on the East coast that could bring heavy snow and High winds to that area. As I stated last week the development of a POSSIBLE major Low for Jan 25 is going to be essential for keeping the trough over the eastern continental US in place. With No BIG Low off the East coast that moves into Eastern Canada the trough would slide East and the cold pattern over the Eastern US would weaken or break down.
Over the weekend all of the model data shows that Low will develop JAN 24-25 as a NEW arctic front drives into the Midwest and East coast. The Low that develops Jan 25 is going to be too far off the East coast to bring the big cities of the NE a snowstorm but it WILL form. The Low will undergo massive deepening as it moves in East Canada. The North winds created by this Low will be very strong...40 + MPH over the entire East coast.... on Friday ... so the wind chill be well shocking .
If there are energy traders in the Northeast continental US there that still doubt this new cold pattern will last... well this should make them think twice
By next Saturday and Sunday a NEW arctic HIGH will be driving S and E from south central Canada into the Plains and Midwest.
January 29 - February 3
The arctic HIGH that comes down JAN 27-28 drops into OK then slides east across the Deep South. This means the cold air mass over the Plains and Midwest will warm quickly and the Mild temps will move into the East coast for a day. BUT yet another Arctic HIGH will be dropping south from western and central Canada. The Next front sweeps East through the Plains and Midwest Jan 30 and reaches the East coast JAN 31
As long as that western North America Ridge stays strong and big over western Canada there will be NO shortage of cold fronts coming down. The cold pattern looks locked in into Mid FEB.
The reasoning can be seen below. The Map on the left side in the European Jet stream map for Day 8-9-10 and the map on the right hand side is the American weather model Jet stream map for Day 8-9-10.
Notice that BOTH maps show a HUGE ridge that extended way north past Alaska into the Arctic circle. Then note how those black lines PLUNGE from that ridge all the way into central and eastern continental US. That is a cold cold map folks.
If the above weather scenario plays out and energy can not rally now, the implications should be obvious.
Mike Shedlock / Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
0 comments:
Post a Comment