Tuesday, July 29, 2008

New York Governor Warns Of Economic Crisis

The New York Times is reporting Paterson Warns of Economic Crisis.
In a rare, brief televised address, Gov. David A. Paterson announced on Tuesday afternoon that he would call the Legislature into an emergency session on Aug. 19 to address what he called an economic and budget crisis confronting New York State as a result of plummeting revenues and rising costs.

The new governor avoided any mention of new taxes, instead arguing forcefully for austerity. He said he was calling on the Legislature to reduce the size of the state workforce; cut agency spending; reduce property taxes for homeowners; aid New Yorkers with the soaring costs of home energy; and even consider public-private partnerships that would take over state assets.

�Revenues are dropping dramatically,� the governor added. At the start of May, the state budget office projected a cumulative deficit of $21.5 billion over the next three years. Now, just two months later, that estimate has risen to $26.2 billion � �a staggering 22 percent increase in less than 90 days.�

Mr. Paterson offered another example of the rapid deterioration in the state�s finances. In June 2007, he said, the 16 banks that pay the most on their business profits remitted $173 million to the state treasury. �This June, just a month ago, they sent us $5 million � a 97 percent decrease,� he said.

He vowed, �We will cut spending. Government will learn to do more with less.� He called for help from business and labor leaders and New York�s representatives in Washington to support him.

He added, �It is time for New York and other governments to cut up our credit cards. The era of �buy now and pay later, and later� is over. The faster we address this crisis, the faster and stronger we will emerge from it.�
Era of �buy now and pay later, and later� is over

New York is the second state in five days to declare a fiscal emergency. See Schwarzenegger Announced Intention To Slash State Workers' Pay Till Budget Passes for more on the crisis in California.

The most stunning thing about Paterson's announcement is how rational it is. He is not begging Washington for handouts, asking for higher taxes, or praying for miracles.

This is pretty stunning too: In June 2007, the 16 banks that pay the most on their business profits remitted $173 million to the state treasury. �This June, just a month ago, they sent us $5 million � a 97 percent decrease.�

Unlike Schwarzenegger who has for years resorted to floating bond or proposing various lottery schemes to "fix" the budget, Paterson has the correct solution.

Of course Schwarzenegger has at times vowed to "cut up the credit cards" but in the end has delivered nothing but promises and schemes of floating $500 billion in bonds to "rebuild California the way it needs to be rebuilt".

Can Paterson Deliver?

I hope Patterson can, but the state legislature is likely to resist all the way.

The Right Mindset
  • Cutting spending
  • Learning to do with less
  • Austerity
  • Reduce the size of the government workforce
  • Reduce property taxes

Patterson had the courage to say exactly what I asked Senator Obama to say in Open Letter To Obama. However, saying these things is one thing, and doing them is another.

Regardless, of whether or not all of those things happen, some forced austerity is all but assured. The same goes for California as well.

And the word that describes the process best is the one word nearly everyone is in denial over: deflation.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Literary Dose #30

"Even as the high priests of contemporary architecture set themselves up as visionary artists or seers in a throbbing celebrity economy, architecture frequently ignores or underestimates its civic influence. Architects certainly deserve admiration for what they, alone among us can do: create monuments of the built environment. When Howard Roark, the architect hero of Ayn Rand's The Fountainhead, points to a building and says, 'I don't care what anyone says about me; I built that,' one cannot but admire the material certainty of his pride. But one toxic result of recent 'starchitecture' culture is the steady stream of theoretical bafflegab that pours from architectural schools and journals. This is usually the result of what me might call 'philosophical backformation': finding some plausible-sounding theoretical cladding to hang on an already conceived, even completed, structural project. Self-respecting architects would not allow useless aesthetic decorations to mar their designs, yet they perpetrate intellectual design crimes by the week. This is forgivable pretension, perhaps, but only if architectural discourse allows itself to be penetrated from the outisde -- if it allows its boundaries to be crossed."
- Mark Kingwell from Concrete Reveries: Consciousness and the City (Viking, 2008).

C.A.R. Median Home Prices Down 37.7% In June

The California Association of Realtors� has released its report for March.
Home sales increased 17.5 percent in June in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 37.7 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS� (C.A.R.) reported today.

"Sales were driven in part by large shares of deeply discounted distressed sales in many parts of the state," he said. �With lower prices and favorable interest rates, affordability also has improved significantly in recent months, paving the way for many buyers to purchase their first home."

"The significant declines in the median price over the past several months are largely due to a dramatic shift in the sales mix since the onset of the credit crunch and the increase in the share of distressed sales,� said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "A year ago, the under $500,000 price range accounted for 40 percent of sales, the middle segment made up about 45 percent, and the over $1 million segment captured 15 percent of the market. As of June 2008, the shares had shifted to 67 percent, 24 percent, and 9 percent, respectively."
Declines From Peak

The following chart is from "TC" who has been monitoring C.A.R. and DQNews data. C.A.R. data contains resale single family residences and new homes. DQNews data contains resale single family residences and new homes.



click on chart for sharper image

"TC" Writes
It should come as no surprise that prices are continuing to head lower out here, but the amount of the drop continues to amaze me. Again, these numbers are directly from the California Realtors so there is certainly no reason for them to fib to the downside.

My quick take from these numbers is that we are finally beginning to near a nominal price bottom in California. Median statewide price drops are now nearing 40% or nearly $230K . Soon enough even the Google millionaires around Santa Clara won't want to overpay.

The big question is what does a "bottom" look like. I think too many envision a bottom consisting of a quick return to rapidly increasing home prices. These individuals are confusing a stock bottom (e.g. 1987) with a housing bottom. Rather than a quick turnaround in my opinion we are likely to see about a 1/2 decade of flat nominal prices (falling real prices) followed by another 1/2 decade of stable real prices (+/- 3% nominal price growth). After that (or around 2020) it's anyone's guess.
I agree with TC on the nature of the flatline bottom, but I think he is at least a couple years early when stating "We are finally beginning to near a nominal price bottom in California."

I think at least one more wave lower is coming when commercial real estate plunges unemployment soars. I expect the recession we are in to be long and deep with a very slow recovery. In April I presented the Case for an "L" Shaped Recession. Recent data solidifies that view.

Case-Shiller data was out today, and it is based on repeat sales, arguably a better way of looking at things vs. median prices. I will have a post from TC on Case-Shiller soon. Thanks TC!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Sigma 70-200mm f/2.8 EX DG HSM II Macro Lens Review

The Sigma 70-200mm f/2.8 EX DG HSM II Macro Lens is shown mounted on a Canon EOS 40D DSLR in the above picture. The Sigma 70-200mm f/2.8 EX DG HSM II Macro Lens is available in a wide range of mounts including Canon (reviewed), Nikon, Sigma, Sony/Minolta, Pentax and Four Thirds.

Full disclosure: You should know that there are potential issues when using a lens made by a manufacturer other than the camera body manufacturer. Since Sigma reverse engineers (vs. licenses) manufacturer AF routines (except for their own bodies), the possibility exists that a new body might not support an older third party lens. Though not common, this has happened. Sometimes a lens can be rechipped to be made compatible, sometimes not. Again unusual is the situation where the lens and body manufacturers place fault on each other for a problem. To its advantage is Sigma USA's 4-year warranty - it is far superior to Canon's standard 1 year warranty. The risk is probably low, but you should figure this into your purchase decision.

I generally buy my lenses new/retail to mirror the experience everyone else should expect to have. Being 0 for 3 on this lens model, I can't in good faith recommend that anyone buy this one. This is a shame as this lens has potential to be a good one - and a very good value.

The focal length range and fast aperture are very useful features. They are excellent for portraits, sports, landscapes and other general-type shots including those taken in lower light levels. But at this point, I'd rather have the Tamron that at least autofocuses correctly some of the time and delivers better image quality at 200mm (we tend to use the extremes of our zoom lenses the most). And of course, the Canon 70-200 L versions are the best answer.

more : the-digital-picture

Sigma 70-200mm f/2.8 EX DG HSM II Macro Lens Review

The Sigma 70-200mm f/2.8 EX DG HSM II Macro Lens is shown mounted on a Canon EOS 40D DSLR in the above picture. The Sigma 70-200mm f/2.8 EX DG HSM II Macro Lens is available in a wide range of mounts including Canon (reviewed), Nikon, Sigma, Sony/Minolta, Pentax and Four Thirds.

Full disclosure: You should know that there are potential issues when using a lens made by a manufacturer other than the camera body manufacturer. Since Sigma reverse engineers (vs. licenses) manufacturer AF routines (except for their own bodies), the possibility exists that a new body might not support an older third party lens. Though not common, this has happened. Sometimes a lens can be rechipped to be made compatible, sometimes not. Again unusual is the situation where the lens and body manufacturers place fault on each other for a problem. To its advantage is Sigma USA's 4-year warranty - it is far superior to Canon's standard 1 year warranty. The risk is probably low, but you should figure this into your purchase decision.

I generally buy my lenses new/retail to mirror the experience everyone else should expect to have. Being 0 for 3 on this lens model, I can't in good faith recommend that anyone buy this one. This is a shame as this lens has potential to be a good one - and a very good value.

The focal length range and fast aperture are very useful features. They are excellent for portraits, sports, landscapes and other general-type shots including those taken in lower light levels. But at this point, I'd rather have the Tamron that at least autofocuses correctly some of the time and delivers better image quality at 200mm (we tend to use the extremes of our zoom lenses the most). And of course, the Canon 70-200 L versions are the best answer.

more : the-digital-picture

Adobe Photoshop Lightroom 2

Major Software Upgrade Further Simplifies Photography Workflows

Adobe Systems Incorporated (Nasdaq:ADBE) today announced the immediate availability of Adobe� Photoshop� Lightroom� 2 software, the photographer�s essential toolbox for managing, adjusting and presenting large volumes of digital photographs. With new enhancements such as dual-monitor support, radical advances in non-destructive localised image correction, and streamlined search capabilities, Lightroom 2 is a compelling upgrade that simplifies photography from shoot to finish. As Adobe�s first application to support 64-bit for Mac OS X 10.5 Macintosh computers with Intel� processors and Microsoft� Windows� Vista� 64-bit operating systems, Lightroom 2 also provides improved memory performance for dealing with large scale images.

�A worldwide community of photographers provided valuable insight and feedback, as part of the Lightroom 2 public beta program, ultimately helping us deliver a better product,� said Tom Hogarty, senior product manager for Lightroom and Camera Raw at Adobe. �We�ve considered their requests which helped us develop useful features that make it easier than ever for our customers to quickly refine, enhance and present brilliant photographs.�

Photoshop Lightroom 2: Smarter, Faster and More Accurate
The enhanced Library module in Lightroom 2 helps streamline and accelerate photographers� workflows. With the ability to visually organise images across multiple hard drives, Lightroom 2 and its powerful Library Filter Bar makes it easy for users to quickly find the images they need. The Suggested Keywords feature helps photographers keyword their images by making intelligent suggestions based on their own previous efforts. New dual-monitor support allows users to expand their workspace, giving them flexibility to edit and organise images in a way that maximises an additional display.

In the Develop module, the new Local Adjustment Brush lets photographers fine-tune specific areas of an image to precisely adjust colour, exposure and tonal range without affecting other areas of the image. The new Graduated Filter expands the toolbox in Lightroom, allowing for edits to larger areas by applying gradually diminishing or increasing adjustment effects such as exposure, clarity, and saturation, alone, or in any combination. Lightroom 2 also helps photographers print more efficiently by quickly arranging photos of multiple sizes on one or many pages with flexible and customisable templates to maximise paper and ink. Intelligent algorithms automatically determine optimal sharpening for screen or print, producing crisper images faster. Developers can further extend the Lightroom workflow with Web, Export and Metadata Software Development Kits available at the Adobe Developer Connection, http://www.adobe.com/devnet/.

Ground-Breaking Innovation in Raw Technology

New raw technology gives photographers access to flexible camera profiles. Camera profiles are the visual starting point for the raw processing workflow, but image preferences vary for every photographer. To minimise surprises, Adobe is supplying default camera profiles that closely emulate the visual looks that photographers are used to seeing from their favourite camera, while also providing the ability to create highly customised profiles to suit different tastes. Camera profiles are available for immediate download on Adobe Labs (http://labs.adobe.com) for use with Lightroom 2 and Camera Raw 4.5, along with the DNG Profile Editor for the community to test and create their own profiles.

The Adobe Camera Raw 4.5 plug-in and DNG Converter 4.5 are also now available on Adobe.com and support over 190 camera models including the Olympus E 420 and E 520 models.

�One of the big reasons why Lightroom has become such a phenomenon among serious photographers is that Adobe built it with the input of a very vocal user community,� said Scott Kelby, president of the National Association of Photoshop Professionals (NAPP). �Adobe really listens to the issues and challenges today�s photographers face and they�ve built a complete solution that not only meets the needs of photographers; it really feels like it was made just for us. The enhancements to Lightroom 2, combined with the power of Photoshop, give photographers the ultimate freedom to produce professional images quickly.�

Pricing and Availability

Adobe Photoshop Lightroom 2 is available now through the Adobe Store at http://www.adobe.com/store in English, French and German with the Japanese language version planned to be released at a future date. The estimated street price is �175 for new users with an upgrade price of �69 for registered users of qualifying Lightroom customers. Recommended system requirements are Macintosh OSX 10.4, 10.5 1 GHz PowerPC G4 or G5 or Intel� based processor, or Microsoft Windows� XP SP2 or Windows Vista Home Premium, Business, Ultimate, or Enterprise, Intel Pentium 4� processor, 1 GB RAM and a 1024x768 resolution screen. Additional information on product features, upgrade policies, pricing, and language versions is available on http://www.adobe.com/products/photoshoplightroom/.

About Adobe Systems Incorporated
Adobe revolutionises how the world engages with ideas and information � anytime, anywhere and through any medium. For more information, visit http://www.adobe.com.

Adobe Photoshop Lightroom 2

Major Software Upgrade Further Simplifies Photography Workflows

Adobe Systems Incorporated (Nasdaq:ADBE) today announced the immediate availability of Adobe� Photoshop� Lightroom� 2 software, the photographer�s essential toolbox for managing, adjusting and presenting large volumes of digital photographs. With new enhancements such as dual-monitor support, radical advances in non-destructive localised image correction, and streamlined search capabilities, Lightroom 2 is a compelling upgrade that simplifies photography from shoot to finish. As Adobe�s first application to support 64-bit for Mac OS X 10.5 Macintosh computers with Intel� processors and Microsoft� Windows� Vista� 64-bit operating systems, Lightroom 2 also provides improved memory performance for dealing with large scale images.

�A worldwide community of photographers provided valuable insight and feedback, as part of the Lightroom 2 public beta program, ultimately helping us deliver a better product,� said Tom Hogarty, senior product manager for Lightroom and Camera Raw at Adobe. �We�ve considered their requests which helped us develop useful features that make it easier than ever for our customers to quickly refine, enhance and present brilliant photographs.�

Photoshop Lightroom 2: Smarter, Faster and More Accurate
The enhanced Library module in Lightroom 2 helps streamline and accelerate photographers� workflows. With the ability to visually organise images across multiple hard drives, Lightroom 2 and its powerful Library Filter Bar makes it easy for users to quickly find the images they need. The Suggested Keywords feature helps photographers keyword their images by making intelligent suggestions based on their own previous efforts. New dual-monitor support allows users to expand their workspace, giving them flexibility to edit and organise images in a way that maximises an additional display.

In the Develop module, the new Local Adjustment Brush lets photographers fine-tune specific areas of an image to precisely adjust colour, exposure and tonal range without affecting other areas of the image. The new Graduated Filter expands the toolbox in Lightroom, allowing for edits to larger areas by applying gradually diminishing or increasing adjustment effects such as exposure, clarity, and saturation, alone, or in any combination. Lightroom 2 also helps photographers print more efficiently by quickly arranging photos of multiple sizes on one or many pages with flexible and customisable templates to maximise paper and ink. Intelligent algorithms automatically determine optimal sharpening for screen or print, producing crisper images faster. Developers can further extend the Lightroom workflow with Web, Export and Metadata Software Development Kits available at the Adobe Developer Connection, http://www.adobe.com/devnet/.

Ground-Breaking Innovation in Raw Technology

New raw technology gives photographers access to flexible camera profiles. Camera profiles are the visual starting point for the raw processing workflow, but image preferences vary for every photographer. To minimise surprises, Adobe is supplying default camera profiles that closely emulate the visual looks that photographers are used to seeing from their favourite camera, while also providing the ability to create highly customised profiles to suit different tastes. Camera profiles are available for immediate download on Adobe Labs (http://labs.adobe.com) for use with Lightroom 2 and Camera Raw 4.5, along with the DNG Profile Editor for the community to test and create their own profiles.

The Adobe Camera Raw 4.5 plug-in and DNG Converter 4.5 are also now available on Adobe.com and support over 190 camera models including the Olympus E 420 and E 520 models.

�One of the big reasons why Lightroom has become such a phenomenon among serious photographers is that Adobe built it with the input of a very vocal user community,� said Scott Kelby, president of the National Association of Photoshop Professionals (NAPP). �Adobe really listens to the issues and challenges today�s photographers face and they�ve built a complete solution that not only meets the needs of photographers; it really feels like it was made just for us. The enhancements to Lightroom 2, combined with the power of Photoshop, give photographers the ultimate freedom to produce professional images quickly.�

Pricing and Availability

Adobe Photoshop Lightroom 2 is available now through the Adobe Store at http://www.adobe.com/store in English, French and German with the Japanese language version planned to be released at a future date. The estimated street price is �175 for new users with an upgrade price of �69 for registered users of qualifying Lightroom customers. Recommended system requirements are Macintosh OSX 10.4, 10.5 1 GHz PowerPC G4 or G5 or Intel� based processor, or Microsoft Windows� XP SP2 or Windows Vista Home Premium, Business, Ultimate, or Enterprise, Intel Pentium 4� processor, 1 GB RAM and a 1024x768 resolution screen. Additional information on product features, upgrade policies, pricing, and language versions is available on http://www.adobe.com/products/photoshoplightroom/.

About Adobe Systems Incorporated
Adobe revolutionises how the world engages with ideas and information � anytime, anywhere and through any medium. For more information, visit http://www.adobe.com.
 
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