An Early Thanksgiving, Black Friday Begins

Thanksgiving came early this year. It was yesterday, Thursday October 29, 2009. The reason we know this is the after Thanksgiving shopfest known as Black Friday started today.

No doubt some of you who forgot to stuff yourselves with turkey and pumpkin pie yesterday are demanding proof of this occurrence. I can certainly oblige.

Please consider

Sears Starts Black Friday NOW! Promotion Today

Posted on 10/30/09 @ 7:56 am PT

Every week between now and Black Friday, Sears.com will have several doorbusters from their Black Friday ad available only for just a few hours. This week's sale runs from 5pm this afternoon until noon tomorrow (central time). Here are the doorbusters available this week:

Once again, these items will be on sale starting at 5pm CT today. You can also save $5 off a $50 purchase with coupon code SEARS5OFF50.

BlackFriday.Org has the following leaks.

Sears Black Friday Ad Leaked

October 27th 2009

The first major black Friday ad of 2009 has arrived and it's from Sears. This year Sears is having an incredible black Friday sale with over 599 doorbusters! Some of the doorbuster deals include a Panasonic Blu-ray Home Theater System for $399.99, a Kenmore 3.5-cu ft. High Efficiency Washer/Dryer Pair for $579.98, and a Kodak CD-80 10.2 MegaPixel Digital Camera (3x zoom, 2.4" LCD) for just $79.99.

Harbor Freight Black Friday Ad Released

October 26th 2009

Our third black Friday ad for 2009 has arrived and it's from Harbor Freight. We only received the few couple of pages of the advertisement but we expect to have the rest of it within a few days. Also, we should be posting the Ace Hardware, Sears, and Kmart ads within the next week or two, so be sure to check back or join our email list for the latest updates.

Thanksgiving Holiday Schedule Canada vs. US

Inquiring minds just might be interested in Canadian Thanksgiving calendar dates.



Is it any wonder the Canadian economy is in so much better shape than ours? Look at how many extra shopping days they get. This is outrageous. I propose we move Thanksgiving up to August 1 to rectify this anomaly and make up for some of the past lost shopping days in the US.

Over time our economy will recover if we leapfrog Canada now to make up for past lost shopping days, population adjusted. Once we are back on an even keel, I propose both countries settle on September 22 to keep our respective economies humming in sync.

Hint to new readers: please don't think I am serious.

Black Friday: How Much Will It Matter?

Marketing Daily is asking Black Friday: How Much Will It Matter?

In some ways, there's something comforting about the way retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, that make-or-break kickoff to the holiday season. Stores like Target are already shoving aisles of Christmas items in between the Halloween costumes. And advertising circulars are already being leaked to deal-finding websites, creating a buzz retailers count on to build traffic.

But there are also signs that this holiday season - the second consecutive year of dreary economics lessons - will be different.

Retailers, for the most part, will consider it a big win if they can sell at least as well as they did last year, Leon Nicholas, director of retail insight at Management Ventures, based in Cambridge, Mass., tells Marketing Daily, "We don't expect to see as many flashy price points, as more stores have locked in already-low pricing. I don't think we'll have the assortment we've had in the past. And in many ways, Black Friday is becoming more of a cultural event about browsing than buying, with people surfing the web for deals and ideas."

Stores are encouraging that, Phil Rist EVP/BIGresearch, says, "by making Black Friday earlier and earlier each year," with many events and web-only sales starting on Thursday. "We'll see even more of that this year."

But 86% of the shoppers in the survey say that unless they can get a discount of at least 20% or more, they won't buy. (In fact, a quarter of those say that unless discounts are in the neighborhood of 50%, they won't open their wallets.) And 38% say they shop late deliberately, because that's when they believe they will find the best bargains.

That may make for a bleak Black Friday. With so many consumers still worried about jobs, Nicholas says, "you may see them buying heavily at discounters, where they believe inventory will be limited. But while you may see a lot of people walking through stores like Macy's, they won't be buying yet. Retailers have trained them to wait longer."

Good News

If you forgot to have turkey and pie yesterday, please don't fret. You can do so every Friday between now and Friday, November 27 comfortable in the knowledge that some store will be announcing an early start to Black Friday.

Of course, retailers spreading this affair out are going to diminish the importance of it all. One Black Friday might be special, five consecutive black Fridays is another matter. How much turkey and pie can one eat? By the time the official Black Friday begins, people will be tired of turkey, turkey a la king, turkey pot pie, and flaming turkey wings.

However, this is a good thing. The more people that become numb to these marketing efforts the better off we will all be.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

3 Tips to Buying the Right Digital Camera

Photography started a long time before we were even born. From this basic photography techniques to advanced digital photography in our day it has progressed a lot. Many people go into the digital photography, because they want to have some fun. But the choice of a digital camera that will do everything is not always fun or easy.

Below are a few tips on how to choose a digital camera:

1. Answer a few questions

If you are a beginner in the underPhotos? Why do you want to buy a camera? Do you intend to sell the photos to them and live by it, or you simply want to just take photos with your friends and family at Christmas? By answering these questions, you are in a position to a digital camera that everything you do not vote.

If you are a beginner when it comes to making pictures, you'd better not money for a DSLR. It does not matter that you are able to afford the camera, the point that a variety of options that comesWhich can be a bit overwhelming for a beginner. Instead, buy a compact digital camera and take pictures with him and learned how to improve your skills. Point-and-shoot digital cameras are not just for storing memories. They can be used by beginners to learn the basics of photography. Once you get to do it, you can buy a more expensive DSLR and learn how to use the manual mode.

2. Do your research

If you decide to buy a camera, make a list of all brands,Cameras offer which you like to have. Learn more about the models and offer to buy the best camera possible. Details on how well each camera takes in various blogs and magazines to be found.

If you do not find the details that interest you, ask your questions in forums that specialize in the photograph. A lot of people will share their experiences with you.

3. Do not go over the budget

Friends Link : Canon EOS50D 450D-DIGITALCAMERA FROM CANON DIGITAL SLR CAMERA CANON EOS REBEIXSI SKYWAY WORKD EXPLORE 29 Skyway World Explorer 29" Vertical Upright Suiter Book Center Online The books from amazon best seller for make money online with google adsense adn googleadwords

3 Tips to Buying the Right Digital Camera

Photography started a long time before we were even born. From this basic photography techniques to advanced digital photography in our day it has progressed a lot. Many people go into the digital photography, because they want to have some fun. But the choice of a digital camera that will do everything is not always fun or easy.

Below are a few tips on how to choose a digital camera:

1. Answer a few questions

If you are a beginner in the underPhotos? Why do you want to buy a camera? Do you intend to sell the photos to them and live by it, or you simply want to just take photos with your friends and family at Christmas? By answering these questions, you are in a position to a digital camera that everything you do not vote.

If you are a beginner when it comes to making pictures, you'd better not money for a DSLR. It does not matter that you are able to afford the camera, the point that a variety of options that comesWhich can be a bit overwhelming for a beginner. Instead, buy a compact digital camera and take pictures with him and learned how to improve your skills. Point-and-shoot digital cameras are not just for storing memories. They can be used by beginners to learn the basics of photography. Once you get to do it, you can buy a more expensive DSLR and learn how to use the manual mode.

2. Do your research

If you decide to buy a camera, make a list of all brands,Cameras offer which you like to have. Learn more about the models and offer to buy the best camera possible. Details on how well each camera takes in various blogs and magazines to be found.

If you do not find the details that interest you, ask your questions in forums that specialize in the photograph. A lot of people will share their experiences with you.

3. Do not go over the budget

Friends Link : Canon EOS50D 450D-DIGITALCAMERA FROM CANON DIGITAL SLR CAMERA CANON EOS REBEIXSI SKYWAY WORKD EXPLORE 29 Skyway World Explorer 29" Vertical Upright Suiter Book Center Online The books from amazon best seller for make money online with google adsense adn googleadwords

Spotlight on Eastern European Currencies and Gold

In Gold And The Watched Pot Theory I versed the following opinions on currency fluctuations:

Might the US dollar blow up? Yes it might. But so could the RMB if China floated it, and so could the British pound. No one seems to see the crisis brewing in Japan with a huge demographic problem, a shrinking population, falling exports, and no way to pay back its national debt.

There is seldom a mention of the problems in European banks who foolishly lent money to the Baltic States in Euros or Swiss Francs and now those Baltic country currencies have collapsed and the loans cannot be paid back. European banks also lent to Latin America and those loans are also suspect. Arguably, European banks are in worse shape than US banks, but no one talks about it, at least in the US.

A watched pot may boil, but it's not likely to explode, especially when everyone watching the pot expects an explosion any second. Somewhere, something is going to blow sky high, but from where I sit, it's as likely to be in the Yen, the Swiss Franc, the British Pound, or something no one is watching at all as opposed to the US dollar specifically.

Watch Eastern Europe For Possible Fireworks

While most eyes have been on the US dollar, I am not alone in thinking a crisis might start elsewhere.

Professor Mark Bloudek offered this opinion on Thursday.

I am having flashbacks to the late months of 2006 when I was watching the ABX index for signs that the subprime loan crisis was beginning. I remember the lowest rated tranches of the ABX being worth 100 and checking everyday to see if/when they would crack.

Why am I having flashbacks? Because the Eastern European currencies (Ex. Hungarian Forint, Czech Krona, and Polish Zloty) remind me of the subprime loans of 2006. A crisis here likely will start a flu that will spread ultimately to the major countries. Why do I draw the analogy between Eastern Europe and subprime loans? Because subprime borrowers were the weakest type of borrowers and the least able to deal with adverse consequences (They defaulted first as a result).

This is similar to the Eastern European countries who are the most fragile countries in terms of staying power on the fiscal front right now (Witness the massive budget deficits in those countries).

I bring this up today, because the Eastern Europe currencies are under a lot of pressure today (Approx. 2%). Keep a close eye here Minyans as this is likely the candidate that could start the crisis fire anew IMO.

Inquiring Minyans might be wondering where and how to watch those currencies. RatesFX is one possible answer.

Here are some charts that show what Professor Bloudek described.

Hungarian Forint vs. Euro




Polish Zloty vs. Euro



Czech Krona vs. Euro



Look closely at those charts. They all have one thing in common. See what it is?

There was a major currency crisis that reversed in February or March coinciding with the bottom in the S&P 500 and a relative top of the US$.

We might be early watching these Eastern European Currencies but this is clearly a potential flashpoint, one that few others are watching. A strong move in the Forint, Krona,or Zloty could put pressure on the euro and in turn push the US$ higher if a European banking crisis ensues.

The same logic applies to the Baltic state currency pegs. If those pegs blow up, then we could really see some fireworks with the US$ strengthening and the stock markets collapsing.

Why did gold rise with the dollar January-February? Those three charts above offer a possible answer.

$XEU - Euro vs. US$



The Euro bottomed against the US$ at the same time the crisis in the Hungarian Forint, Czech Krona, and Polish Zloty subsided vs. the Euro.

Although we would likely see weakness in gold if the dollar rallies, toss that relationship out the window if there is a currency crisis in Eastern Europe, or Asia. This could be another situation where gold rises with the dollar, as it did in the first quarter this year when the stock market collapsed.

Over the longer term, gold's move is a symptom of a flight from fiat currencies and various credit stresses in general, not just the dollar. If you are watching the US$ only, you are watching an incomplete picture. There are significant problems elsewhere.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

A Remarkable Comparison: Affordable Student Loans vs. Affordable Housing

Here is an email from Eugene Holloway, a Maryland Attorney, on the rising cost of college education.

Eugene writes:

When I attended law school at George Washington U in 1969, the tuition was $1,900 a semester. I worked my way through and had no debts when I began to practice law.

Later, student loans became the norm. The loans were subsidized, encouraging students to become indebted rather than build sweat equity in themselves. Student loans also took parents off the hook for saving to pay for their childrens� education. The result was still more government dependency.

Screwing up the marketplace with subsidies, drove up the price of education, encouraged institutions to grow based on government support, and placed undue emphasis (economically) on higher and frequently useless education.

We should expect the higher education market to suffer a similar fate to the real estate market, where subsidies, encouraging people to buy what they could not afford (and did not need) led them to a result that, when compared to their investment in time and treasure, was uneconomical.

Eugene Holloway

I spoke briefly with Mr. Holloway on the phone. He is from the Austrian economist school, and spoke of the "education malinvestment".

Over time that is certainly what has happened. The cost of education has spiraled out of control with the cost of higher education far exceeding the payback unless one gets lucky in the jobs lotto process.

Many college graduates will be paying back student loans for 20 years or more. This is what happens when government tries to make things affordable. The same thing happened with affordable housing.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Mission

Has anyone even bothered to look up the Mission Statement of Fannie Mae?

We are a shareholder-owned company with a public mission. We exist to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to local communities in order to serve the U.S. housing market.

Fannie Mae Limits



Fannie Mae exists to expand affordable housing.

Fannie now offers loans as high as $938,250.

By what stretch of the imagination is that affordable? That such loans are deemed necessary is proof Fannie Mae has failed its core mission.

Fannie at least has a mission statement that one can understand. They failed, but the mission is clear. Compare an contrast to the Federal Student Aid program.

Federal Student Aid Mission

Inquiring minds are investigating the Federal Student Aid Program.

Organization and Core Mission

Federal Student Aid, an office of the U.S. Department of Education, ensures that all eligible individuals benefit from federally funded or federally guaranteed financial assistance for education beyond high school. Located in Washington, D.C., and ten regional offices, its 1,000-person staff consistently champions the promise of postsecondary education and its value to American society.

Federal Student Aid was formed as a result of the 1998 Amendments to the Higher Education Act of 1965. To face the challenge of modernizing the delivery of student financial aid, this legislation named Federal Student Aid the government�s first Performance-Based Organization (PBO).

Federal Student Aid�s five core objectives are to integrate systems, to improve program integrity, to reduce program costs, to improve human capital management, and to improve products and services.

Excuse me for asking but where exactly is the mission statement? Is this it? To consistently champion the promise of postsecondary education and its value to American society.

The objectives are clear however.

Federal Student Aid Core Objectives

1) integrate systems
2) improve program integrity
3) reduce program costs
4) improve human capital management
5) improve products and services

While the core objectives are clearly stated, it certainly is not clear what any of them have to do with helping students.

Integrating systems is the #1 core objective of the student aid program. Pray tell what the hell does that even mean?

Program "Success"

One way to measure success is by dollars spent. By that measure the student loan program is a rousing success.

• $21.8 billion in Direct Loans were awarded to 2.9 million recipients in FY 2008, excluding consolidation loans. Funds were borrowed from the US Treasury.
• FFEL funds are provided by private and non-profit lenders, insured by loan guaranty agencies and reinsured by the federal government. $52.9 billion in loans were delivered to approximately 6 million FFEL recipients in FY2008.
• Perkins loans are made through participating schools to undergraduate, graduate and professional students. These loans are offered to students demonstrating the greatest financial need. Undergraduates may receive up to $4,000 a year and graduate students may receive up to $6,000 a year based on a student�s need and a school�s available funding.

The document states the student loan portfolio is now up to a whopping $556 billion.

Is it any wonder with success like that, that cost of education is spiraling out of control?

Nowhere along the line are there any incentives by anyone (either the colleges or those administering the program) to reduce costs.

As long as government is willing to "help out" with student loans, universities and colleges will keep raising prices, and the total cost of an education will keep soaring until one day it blows sky high, just as happened with mortgages.

Note that the loans are guaranteed by the government. Also note that student loans are not discharged in bankruptcy. Those two facts are all you need to understand why the financial industry as a whole consistently champions the promise of postsecondary education and its value to American society. No one really gives a damn about the students. Worse yet, were funding cut off, there would be student outrage over it when stopping funding is exactly what is needed to bring costs down.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Today's archidose #365

Here are a couple recent buildings in London photographed by z.z.


[10 Hills Place by by Amanda Levete Architects, 2009]



[Reiss HQ by Squire and Partners, 2008]

To contribute your Flickr images for consideration, just:

:: Join and add photos to the archidose pool, and/or
:: Tag your photos archidose

(Almost) free Halloween decor

I'm so stinking excited you all love my redo as much as I do!! It's GORG, eh? It just feels like "home" to me, like it always should have looked this way. ;)

It hit me this week that, uhhhhh, Halloween is like, in two days and I hadn't shown you more of my decor. Maybe you can file some ideas away for next year, yes?

Most of my Halloween decor -- well ALL of my Halloween decor -- was made by moi or purchased on the cheap. I showed you my free spooky mantel here, my ghouly candleholders here and my Halloween crafting here. All were super cheap or faaaareeee!

Here's more of the other el cheapo decorations I promise every one of you can do!

A glittery word from Hob Lob, cut off the ribbon and attach it to scrapbook paper in an old frame:
The gumball machine was $4 at Goodwill and I couldn't. resist. it. I tried, I did. It's perfect for peanut M&M's. Makes it a bit harder to get to them, which is a good thing. ;)


These labels are free online (if you search Halloween labels you should find some) -- I did these last year with Goodwill bottles so I can't remember where I found them:
This year I got a few more little jars for $.25 each at GW, and printed off itty bitty labels I found here. (You have to see all of the ideas Lorie finds -- amazing!! I couldn't find the actual post for these -- do you know where it is Lorie?)

Years ago I found images online, printed them out and cut out the shapes in stiff felt. They've lasted for a long time and I love how they look on our windows:

When you take three cardboard letters that spell out BOO and half off scrapbook paper, this is what you get:
Four bucks total, I believe? I think the paper cost more than the pumpkin for this one:

Outside, I used spidey web lights I found at the drug store last year on clearance (drug stores have some fun stuff for CHEAP after the holidays.) I think these cost me two bucks:

And of course my dollar store tombstones are all over the front yard! I touched them up with white paint and they look awesome:

This one was probably the most expensive project -- I found these vinyl stickers at HomeGoods a few weeks ago and got Spooky and Scary for $6:
I took some scrap wood, spray painted it, distressed it and drilled holes for the ribbon to hang it:

Adorable. Cheap. Thankyouverymuch. ("Scary" is vertical and leans against a wall in our foyer.)

Fun stuff eh??

Please don't let all of this fool you. I have a secret...

I am sooooo cheating...

I couldn't resist, really. Could you? (Don't tell me if you could.)

Another Before and After Party is coming up this Monday!! (I'll have the post up Sunday night!) You just need a before picture and the after to join us. Wooeee, I love a party!!

I'll also share my first Christmas project next week -- I've mentioned it before but you'll need some time to prepare for this one. ;)