Global Property Bubbles to Implode in 2008

The Telegraph is reporting UK Landlords face office rent crisis.

One of the UK's leading commercial property agents has warned that office rents may tumble next year, dealing a second devastating blow to landlords who have already seen the value of their portfolios plummet in recent months.

DTZ is predicting a 15pc-20pc fall in office demand in 2008 as banks and other financial institutions reduce their overheads, which will almost inevitably lead to a softening of rents and the increase in incentives such as rent-free periods.

DTZ's report added that the current financial crisis is symptomatic of a much wider problem than the US sub-prime market.

A spokesman said: "Sub-prime is a red herring. It was simply the most stretched segment of an over-stretched debt market. As such, it has to be seen as a catalyst rather than the cause of the recent turmoil."

My Comment: DTZ has this correct. Yet we still hear (at least in the US) how all of this is related to subprime. Alt-A and Pay Option ARMs are going to be at least as big if not a bigger problem than subprime.

The concern over rental growth in the commercial property market comes against a backdrop of a falling number of deals in the sale and purchase of commercial property.

Research from property agent Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) reveals that the volume of transactions across the UK commercial property market dropped 25pc in 2007 to �48bn as investors fled the sector. Falling prices and reduced availability of debt restricted the flow of deals, especially larger ones, across the second half of the year.

My Comment: Commercial Real Estate Transactions Plunge in the US as well. A plunge in transaction preceded the bursting of the housing bubble in the US. Expect the same scenario to play out in the Commercial Real Estate bubble.

JLL director of capital markets Andrew Hynard said: " I think the first quarter of 2008 will be pretty slow, and we will see the pick-up in quarter two. However, the fall in capital values is likely to keep the overall value of transactions lower in 2008 than 2007."

My Comment: JLL is an amazing optimist. The US, UK, and EU all likely headed for what Shiller calls a Japanese Style Recession.

A Real Estate Bubble in Spain



Click Here To Play Video

Spanish property dreams seem to be reaching for the sky. The new skyline of the Spanish capital Madrid features 250 meter high office buildings - a symbol of the country's economic boom.

But as the city grows higher it is also becoming too expensive for many residents. Rocio Ramos and her partner bought themselves an apartment outside the city and now they are struggling to keep up with rising interest rates. At the same time, prices are stagnating after the years of building boom. On the coast many of the newly built appartments are empty. Ute Brucker took a look at developments in Madrid and Valencia.

The above property cost 200,000 Euros ($292,000+-) for 65 square meters (about 700 square feet) in a building constructed in the 1970's. That is a bubble folks.

Property Bubbles Are Everywhere You Look

Florida has been ground zero of bubble popping but California, Arizona, and Nevada are catching up. Internationally, there are enormous bubble in Spain, the UK, Canada (especially Vancouver and Toronto), and China.

Credit expansion in the UK and EU was just as rampant as the US. Global property bubbles were the result. Here is an interesting chart from HousePriceCrash.Co.UK



The dotted line is an alternate trendline that I drew. The ramifications should be obvious.

Global property bubbles are poised to implode in 2008.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Casio Hi-Speed Camera is 60 fps fast

Casio Hi-Speed Camera is 60 fps fast

How many times can you blink per second? This cool Casio Hi-Speed Camera can do it 60 times a second and take 60 actual full-resolution 6megapixel photos in a second. Wow. I�m stunned. This will be pretty handy for taking pics of fast moving Formula 1 cars, bees and hornets.

It also has a Pre-shot Burst Mode that lets� you capture images moments before you actually pressed the shutter button on the camera. Other specs include a 12x zoom and VGA movie capture at 300fps.

This first Casio high speed camera prototype was displayed at the recent IFA 2007 and we are still waiting for it to come out.

Casio 60 fps Digital Camera Specifications

� Effective pixels: 6.0 million

� Imaging element: 1/1.8 inch high speed CMOS sensor (total pixels: 6.6 million)

� High speed burst shooting: 60 images per second at 6.0 million pixels, JPEG

� High speed movie: 300fps, Motion JPEG, AVI format, VGA

� Lens/focal : 12 lenses in 9 groups, F2.7 to 4.6, equiv. 35-420mm on 35mm camera

� Zoom: 12X optical zoom

� Image stabilization mechanism: CMOS-shift image stabilization

� Monitor screen: 2.8-inch widescreen TFT color LCD, approx. 230,000 pixels

� Viewfinder: Color LCD, approx. 200,000 pixels

� Dimension and weight: 127.5 mm (W) x 79.5 mm (H) x 130.0 mm (D).

� Weight Approx. 650 g (excluding battery and accessories)

Casio Hi-Speed Camera is 60 fps fast source

(Via The Gadget Blog.)

Casio Hi-Speed Camera is 60 fps fast

Casio Hi-Speed Camera is 60 fps fast

How many times can you blink per second? This cool Casio Hi-Speed Camera can do it 60 times a second and take 60 actual full-resolution 6megapixel photos in a second. Wow. I�m stunned. This will be pretty handy for taking pics of fast moving Formula 1 cars, bees and hornets.

It also has a Pre-shot Burst Mode that lets� you capture images moments before you actually pressed the shutter button on the camera. Other specs include a 12x zoom and VGA movie capture at 300fps.

This first Casio high speed camera prototype was displayed at the recent IFA 2007 and we are still waiting for it to come out.

Casio 60 fps Digital Camera Specifications

� Effective pixels: 6.0 million

� Imaging element: 1/1.8 inch high speed CMOS sensor (total pixels: 6.6 million)

� High speed burst shooting: 60 images per second at 6.0 million pixels, JPEG

� High speed movie: 300fps, Motion JPEG, AVI format, VGA

� Lens/focal : 12 lenses in 9 groups, F2.7 to 4.6, equiv. 35-420mm on 35mm camera

� Zoom: 12X optical zoom

� Image stabilization mechanism: CMOS-shift image stabilization

� Monitor screen: 2.8-inch widescreen TFT color LCD, approx. 230,000 pixels

� Viewfinder: Color LCD, approx. 200,000 pixels

� Dimension and weight: 127.5 mm (W) x 79.5 mm (H) x 130.0 mm (D).

� Weight Approx. 650 g (excluding battery and accessories)

Casio Hi-Speed Camera is 60 fps fast source

(Via The Gadget Blog.)

Web Analytics Salary Survey 2007

Web Analytics has become one of the hottest career fields in past year. This is exactly what I predicted in January of 2007 when I made the predictions for 2007

Recently an article on WISTV.com says
Companies everywhere are allocating resources to developing effective Web sites, says O'Donnell. [GL1] She points to Web analytics as a specific, cutting-edge job choice. "Companies need people who can make their sites easy to navigate and visually impactful, so Web analysts need to understand human psychology and also be slightly obsessed with the Web," she says.

As people make a decision about their career one of the questions that everybody has on their mind is �What can expect in terms of money?� To answer this question I conducted a salary survey a few months back. In this post I am going to post the result of that survey. I would like to thank all of you who participated in this survey.

I had total of 102 responses from web analysts around the world. I did not have enough data to show salary results for any other country except US. In future I will conduct a survey for a longer period of time to get more data from other countries as well. Every position except the Director had siginificant number of respondents. So when you look at these numbers keep that in mind that salary for Director level might not be a true representation of the actual salaries.

Average and Median Salary by Title

Average salaries and bonus for web analytics positions ranged from $31,000 to $212,000. Most of the people with Analyst titled had 0-2 years of experience. It appears that as these Analysts get more experience and transition into Sr. Analyst their salaries jump significantly (+42% on average).

Base Salary by Job Title





Base Salary and Bonus by Job Title




Average Base Salary and Bonus by Job Title

Over 57% of the respondent had bonus along with the base salaries. Bonus was a component of total package at all the positions.
Sr. Managers seem to have higher bonus than people with Director Title. Since there were very few �Directors� who participated in the survey I am not confident that these numbers truly represent the current market salaries. (I encourage you to participate in next survey that I will conduct to make sure we have enough data points).


Salary based on Total years of Experience

Base Salary by total years of experience



As expected salaries increased with the years of experience. Median salary of �7 and Above� year was below median salary of 5-7 year of experience. I think the cause of this was that a lot of people with experience in other fields made a move to Web Analytics. Their salary in web analytics is higher than what they were making in their previous jobs but still below that of others who have been working in web analytics or marketing fields.

Base Salary and Bonus by total years of experience



Average Base Salary and Bonus by total years of experience

% of compensation in bonus grows with the number of years of experience.
People with 0-2 years of experience make an average of 6% of their base in bonus
People with 2 -5 years of experience make an average of 13% of their base in bonus
People with 5-7 years of experience make an average of 16.5% of their base in bonus
People with 7 and above years of experience make an average of 17.9% of their base in bonus

So do you fall in this range? What would you like to see in future surveys? Leave anonymous comments if you don�t want to disclose your name?

Please contact me at batraonline at gmail.com to get a PDF copy of this report.

Video Tutorial: Digital Camera Nikon COOLPIX S51/S51c

Video Tutorial: Digital Camera Nikon COOLPIX S51/S51c

To help familiarize yourself with the Nikon COOLPIX S51 or S51c digital camera, here�s a short video which offers descriptions of a few of these camera�s coolest features, tips for taking great pictures and an explanation of how to use the incredibly cool wireless feature of the S51c camera. Topics in the video include:

• Taking steady shots
  

• Ensuring the subject is in focus
  

• Capture bright images
  

• Utilizing the movie mode
  

To download the video, please click one of the following links:

• Full Resolution (250 MB)
  

• Web-Ready (11 MB)
  

Tutorial: Digital Camera Nikon COOLPIX S700 Video Tutorial

Tutorial: Digital Camera Nikon COOLPIX S700 Video Tutorial

To help familiarize yourself with the Nikon COOLPIX S700 digital camera, here�s a short video which offers descriptions of a few of the camera�s coolest features, as well as tips for taking great pictures. Topics in the video include:

• Taking steady shots
  

• Ensuring the subject is in focus
  

• Capture bright images
  

• Utilizing the movie mode
  

To download the video, please click one of the following links:

• Full Resolution (146 MB)
  

• Web-Ready (7 MB)
  

Economic Policy Tensions Poised To Soar In Europe

The Telegraph is reporting Biggest drop for the British Pound since 1992.

The pound suffered its weakest annual performance for 15 years in 2007, as markets bet that 2008 will be a miserable one for the British economy. The pound fell 6.1pc in the past year, which is the biggest annual decline since 1992 - the year in which Britain was ejected from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

The sterling exchange rate index, which compares the pound with a comprehensive basket of currencies, finished the year at 97.9, having weakened by 6.7pc in the past six months.

The currency's dramatic fall follows news earlier in December of a sudden doubling of the size of Britain's current account deficit, and comes amid growing speculation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates more aggressively than anticipated. Having risen above the $2.10 mark against the US dollar, the UK currency is now back at $2, and is expected eventually to drop to $1.80 or lower.

Pound vs. US$



click on chart for sharper image

Against the US$ the pound rose slightly for the year even though it fell vs. a comprehensive basket of currencies. With the property bubble finally imploding in the UK, and with rate cuts in the UK coming, the strength in the pound vs. the dollar is unjustified. The recent selloff highlights that focus.

Economic Policy Tensions Poised To Soar In Europe

The Euro will be interesting to watch given that Cyprus and Malta tip balance.

Cyprus and Malta will tomorrow embrace the euro, boosting Europe's monetary union to 15 states and adding another two Club Med votes to the policy board of the European Central Bank.

The Latin and Hellenic cluster of states now has a majority of the votes on the governing council for the first time, with 11 of the 21 members. As the economic rift between the eurozone's North and South grows ever wider, the thorny question of which camp holds the majority of votes is likely to come into starker focus.

Both the French and Italian leaders have already called for a shift in policy to curb the rise of the euro and shield struggling industries.

"The lira-ization of the euro can no longer be excluded," said Professor Ansgar Belke, from Stuttgart's Hohenheim University.

What worries officials in Frankfurt is that the newcomers will tend to side with Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Ireland should deflating property booms across the region prompt demands for a looser monetary policy.

Germany has not had a property bubble. Instead it has used the time since the launch of the euro to screw down wages and claw back competitiveness. Lean and fit again, it is gaining export share across southern Europe.

While Germany now has a current account surplus of 5.6pc of GDP, Spain has a deficit of 9.3pc, Portugal 10pc, and Greece 13pc. The deficits will have to be corrected, perhaps harshly.

"Tensions are likely to grow," said David Owen, eurozone economist at Dresdner Kleinwort. "If you get sharp slowdowns in the peripheral economies, they are going to want rate cuts. It could lead to much more heated discussions," he said.

The ECB maintains total secrecy over meetings, refusing to release minutes or reveal how members voted.

The new Cypriot bank governor, Athanasios Orphanides, was a top official at US Federal Reserve until mid-2007 and made his name as an economic theorist arguing that central banks should let inflation spikes subside naturally - if possible - rather than slamming on the brakes in a rigid or mechanical fashion

The doctrine is known as "the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation". It has had a major influence over US monetary strategy.

Mr Orphanides played to his reputation as an inflation dove in an interview with Dow Jones in October, insisting that Europe enjoyed "an environment of very-well-anchored inflation expectations".

This puts him in direct conflict with the two German board members, Axel Weber and J�rgen Stark, who have both warned repeatedly that eurozone inflation of 3.1pc is reaching levels that could set off the beginnings of a wage-price spiral.

"Orphanides is going to bring a Fed-style framework to the ECB; the old Bundesbank perspective is progressively losing influence," said Julian Callow, eurozone economist at Barclays Capital.

A clutch of American-educated ECB board members from Italy, Spain and Greece is now taking over the key levers of power in Europe's monetary system.

The Bundesbank lockhold was broken two years ago with the retirement of Otmar Issing, the doyen of German monetarism who held unchallenged mastery of the ECB as both chief economist and head of the research apparatus.

A chunk of his empire went to Greek member Lucas Papademos, a former MIT professor and an intellectual force in his own right.

The ECB still cleaves to monetarist orthodoxy in a sort of ancestral deference to the Bundesbank - dutifully combing the M3 money supply data each month - but the bank is in reality shifting into a different orbit.

Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi, head of the ECB's international division, said a number of Eastern European states should ditch their pegs to the euro, which was forcing them to hold interest rates too low for the needs of their fast-growing catch-up economies.

The Mess In Europe

• There are property bubbles in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Ireland.
• Supposedly there is no property bubble in Germany.
• Spain, Portugal and Greece have deficits that must be addressed.
• Germany has a surplus.
• M3 is still soaring.
• There are fears of wage price spirals.
• France and Italy want to curb the rise of the Euro with currency intervention if necessary. See Currency Twilight Zone.
• The Eastern states arguably have rates too low, while France and Italy think rates are too high.
• Currency cranks trained in the US are now poised to take over ECB policy.

Economic tensions are not only going to rise, they are going to explode.

Euro vs. US$



click on chart for sharper image

In spite of all the problems in Europe, the Euro has been on a tear vs. dollar. Much of that move is based on diversification out of dollars by oil producing states. Given the problems facing Europe some unwinding of that rise in Euros vs. the dollar seems likely.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List