To contribute your Flickr images for consideration, just:
:: Join and add photos to the archidose pool, and/or
:: Tag your photos archidose
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Today's archidose #292
Here's a couple of views of 290 Mulberry Street in New York City by SHoP Architects. Photographs are by occam.
Who Bears the Burden for a $3 Trillion Mistake?
Citigroup plunged 39% on Friday to $1.50, a price last seen in 1992.
The plunge was in response to a Citigroup U.S. Accord on a Third Bailout that will convert the government's preferred shares to common, thereby diluting existing common shareholders and exposing US taxpayers to more losses.
Let's take a look one more time at Krugman's article Mysterious plans
I had the pleasure of meeting Michael Mandel, chief economist for BusinessWeek, at a economic conference sponsored by the Kauffman Foundation last Thursday and Friday. I spoke with him at great length about the preferred conversions at Citigroup.
Mandel advised what was happening could be found in column he wrote last October called Shared Sacrifice Will Ease the Credit Crunch.
The next piece of the puzzle can be found in the Institutional Risk Analyst article Too Big to Bail: Lehman Brothers is the Model for Fixing the Zombie Banks.
Finally, in The Great Repudiation Revisited, Mandel mentions the above Institutional Risk Analyst article and concludes "At some point the bondholders are going to have to take a big haircut."
We can now see that the plan is to slowly boil the frogs in order. In other words, the government preferred shareholders need to be wiped out first in a manner that offends foreign investors the least. That manner was to wipe out US government (taxpayer) preferred shares along with foreign governments common equity and preferred positions.
The next frog to be boiled will be after Citigroup fails the stress test. At that point, there will be no way to avoid "an adult conversation" between the US government and foreign bondholders.
Meanwhile, the government is avoiding an outright nationalization of Citigroup hoping to avoid pressure by foreign governments for the US to make good on a full repayment of bank bonds. If the government limits its stake to 40% or less, US Government guarantees of bank debts may be skirted, or at least postponed.
Tying it all together, what's really happening has nothing to do with the announced plan to boost banks' TCE, tangible common equity. Rather, the plan is to repudiate the bondholders, step by step, boiling each frog in order, hoping to minimize the fallout from foreign bondholders.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
The plunge was in response to a Citigroup U.S. Accord on a Third Bailout that will convert the government's preferred shares to common, thereby diluting existing common shareholders and exposing US taxpayers to more losses.
Citigroup Inc. and the federal government agreed to a third rescue that will give U.S. taxpayers as much as 36% of the bank but expose their ownership stake to greater risk from the recession and housing crisis. The deal will punish existing shareholders of Citigroup, who will see their stake diluted by 74%, and likely do little to change the awkward relationship between federal officials and management of the New York company.Mysterious Plans Revisited
Depending on how many current holders of Citigroup preferred stock agree to a similar move, the company's tangible common equity could surge to $81.1 billion from $29.7 billion at Dec. 31. That would reverse the recent slide in tangible common equity -- a gauge of what shareholders would have left if the company were liquidated -- that fueled a downward spiral in Citigroup shares.
The conversion leaves taxpayers exposed to the risk of greater losses. The government's preferred holdings had stood ahead of common stock in Citigroup's capital structure, meaning they were less likely to lose value if the company's woes continue to mount. In addition, by converting much of the U.S. stake to common shares, Citigroup won't have to pay the hefty dividend payouts that were attached to the preferred stock.
"The government is bending over backwards to not go along the lines of nationalization," said Bernie Sussman, chief investment officer of Spectrum Asset Management, a unit of Principal Financial Group Inc. that manages about $6.9 billion in assets. "They had the alternative to completely zero out the common stock."
Let's take a look one more time at Krugman's article Mysterious plans
What Treasury now seems to be proposing is converting preferred to common.Shared Sacrifice
[Mish: No longer a proposal but a done deal]
It�s true that preferred stock has some debt-like qualities � there are required dividend payments, etc.. But does anyone think that the reason banks are crippled is that they are tied down by their obligations to preferred stockholders, as opposed to having too much plain vanilla debt?
I just don�t get it. And my sinking feeling that the administration plan is to rearrange the deck chairs and hope the iceberg melts just keeps getting stronger.
I had the pleasure of meeting Michael Mandel, chief economist for BusinessWeek, at a economic conference sponsored by the Kauffman Foundation last Thursday and Friday. I spoke with him at great length about the preferred conversions at Citigroup.
Mandel advised what was happening could be found in column he wrote last October called Shared Sacrifice Will Ease the Credit Crunch.
Over the past four years the U.S. private sector has borrowed an astonishing $3 trillion from the rest of the world. The money, directly and indirectly, came from countries such as China, Germany, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, which ran huge trade surpluses with America. Foreign investors trusted their funds to U.S. financial institutions, which used much of the money for mortgage loans.Too Big to Bail
But American families took on a lot more debt than they could comfortably afford. Now no one is sure how much of that towering sum the U.S. is going to pay back�and all the uncertainty is roiling the financial markets.
The Washington bailout debate boils down to this question: Who is going to bear the burden of the $3 trillion mistake?
Will low- and middle-income borrowers have to cut back on spending to pay their mortgage bills? Will taxpayers have to chip in big bucks to pay for defaults on those debts? Or will Washington act in a way that imposes large losses on foreign investors�in effect, repudiating some of the debt? The best outcome is shared sacrifice among borrowers, taxpayers, and foreign investors�but that result may be politically difficult to achieve.
The next piece of the puzzle can be found in the Institutional Risk Analyst article Too Big to Bail: Lehman Brothers is the Model for Fixing the Zombie Banks.
Remembering that half of the liabilities of C, BAC and JPM are funded out of the bond markets and not via deposits, it should be clear to one and all that the US taxpayers are not in a position to subsidize the bond holders of these three banks, representing some $1.5 trillion in debt, if the deposits of these banks are to be protected. Some people, indeed, many people believe that we must avoid another Lehman Brothers type resolution where bondholders take a loss, but to us the only scenario where depositors of C, BAC, JPM do not take a loss is if we haircut the bond holders.Frogs Slowly Boiled In Order
There are no easy answers here, but the guiding principle left by the Founders that bankruptcy be used to quickly and finally resolve insolvency is instructive. In that sense, Lehman Brothers is the ideal example, not something to be avoided.
What is required in Washington is an adult conversation, between the US government on the one hand and the holders of the bonds of the largest banks on the other. Many of the bond holders of the large banks are foreign governments, central banks and investment funds and not a few of these sovereign names are in really serious financial difficulties. Since the receiverships for Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual, where bond holders took a near total loss, these foreign investors have been vocal in demanding that US taxpayers protect them from further harm.
But to deflect these cowardly, expedient arguments, the US government must be willing to lead by example to show that there really is only one way to restore confidence in zombie banks: use receivership to wipe out the common and preferred shareholders, conserve the deposits and sell the good assets to new investors, and then restructure the remaining operations of the bank to maximize recovery to the bond holders and other creditors.
Finally, in The Great Repudiation Revisited, Mandel mentions the above Institutional Risk Analyst article and concludes "At some point the bondholders are going to have to take a big haircut."
We can now see that the plan is to slowly boil the frogs in order. In other words, the government preferred shareholders need to be wiped out first in a manner that offends foreign investors the least. That manner was to wipe out US government (taxpayer) preferred shares along with foreign governments common equity and preferred positions.
The next frog to be boiled will be after Citigroup fails the stress test. At that point, there will be no way to avoid "an adult conversation" between the US government and foreign bondholders.
Meanwhile, the government is avoiding an outright nationalization of Citigroup hoping to avoid pressure by foreign governments for the US to make good on a full repayment of bank bonds. If the government limits its stake to 40% or less, US Government guarantees of bank debts may be skirted, or at least postponed.
Tying it all together, what's really happening has nothing to do with the announced plan to boost banks' TCE, tangible common equity. Rather, the plan is to repudiate the bondholders, step by step, boiling each frog in order, hoping to minimize the fallout from foreign bondholders.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Today's archidose #291
Here's a couple of buildings in Phnom Penh, Cambodia by Vann Molyvann. Photographs are by jiattison. See also New Khmer Architecture.
[Institute of Foreign Languages at the Royal University of Phnom Penh]
[Phnom Penh National Olympic Stadium]
[Institute of Foreign Languages at the Royal University of Phnom Penh]
[Phnom Penh National Olympic Stadium]
To contribute your Flickr images for consideration, just:
:: Join and add photos to the archidose pool, and/or
:: Tag your photos archidose
Friday, February 27, 2009
Olympus Launches �Space Project� On Shuttle�s Next Mission To International Space Station
Olympus E-3 DSLR to Capture Earth�s Beauty from Space Station, Raise Awareness for Environmental Protection
CENTER VALLEY, Pa., February 26, 2009 � Olympus Corporation commemorates its 90th anniversary by creating the �Olympus Space Project� to photograph the majestic beauty of our planet and raise awareness to protect it. The company�s flagship E-3 digital single lens reflex (DSLR) camera and ZUIKO digital lenses will journey to the International Space Station (ISS) on the next Space Shuttle Discovery mission.
Dr. Koichi Wakata, a Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) astronaut, will take images of the earth with the Olympus E-3 throughout his three-month mission on the ISS. Specifically, he will stay in the �Kibo,� which is the Japanese Experiment Module. It is located in the ISS and is Japan�s first manned facility where astronauts can conduct experiments for long periods of time. �Hope� is the English translation for Kibo, and Dr. Wakata will be the first astronaut to inhabit the new experiment module. Images captured by Dr. Wakata will be available on Olympus� Web site at http://olympus-space-project.com.
�For 90 years we�ve continued to develop innovative products that help improve peoples� lives every day � from capturing memories to documenting environmental changes,� said F. Mark Gumz, president, Olympus Imaging America Inc. �Olympus cameras are used by the National Park Service to track air quality at our nation�s parks and by wildlife photographer Mitsuaki Iwago, whose images focus on global environmental issues and nature preservation. We�re taking this commitment to the next level by capturing our planet�s delicate beauty from space.�
Designed for professional and aspiring photographers, the E-3 offers amazing image quality, splashproof and dustproof durability, and a magnesium-alloy body that survives the toughest shooting environments. The E-3 complies with NASA�s standards for use in space. Olympus continues to be an innovator, developing new technologies to expand the frontiers of digital photography and leading where others have followed. Proof that Olympus enables consumers to capture it all. Product details are available at www.getolympus.com.
Details on the ISS, JAXA, the Japanese Experiment Module, Dr. Wakata and the next mission of the Space Shuttle Discovery are available at http://www.jaxa.jp/index_e.html.
Journalists interested in receiving more information about the Olympus Space Project or Olympus products can contact Michael Bourne, Mullen Public Relations, 978-468-8953 or michael.bourne@mullen.com, or Jennifer Lyons, public relations manager, Olympus Imaging America Inc., 3500 Corporate Parkway, Center Valley, PA 18034, ph: (484) 896-5350 or jennifer.lyons@olympus.com.
ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
The ISS orbits 220 miles above the earth, at a speed of 90 minutes per orbit. It allows scientist to perform studies and experiments in space by taking advantage of special features unique to space. It is built and operated by a consortium of 15 countries, including the United States, Japan, Russia, Canada and 11 nations of the European Space Agency. The Space Shuttle was developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and three shuttles � Discovery, Atlantis and Endeavor � currently travel between NASA�s Kennedy Space Center in Florida and the ISS.
ABOUT OLYMPUS IMAGING AMERICA INC.
Olympus Imaging America Inc. is a precision technology leader, designing and delivering award-winning products for consumer and professional markets.
Olympus Imaging America Inc. works collaboratively with its customers and its ultimate parent company, Olympus Corporation, to develop breakthrough technologies with revolutionary product design and functionality that enhances peoples� lives every day. These include:
* Digital and Film Cameras
* Professional Digital SLR Imaging Systems
* Related Underwater Products and Accessories
* Digital and Microcassette Recorders
* Digital Media
* Binoculars
Olympus Imaging America Inc. is responsible for sales in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. For more information, visit: www.olympusamerica.com.
*All trademarks mentioned herein are the property of their respective holder. �2009 Olympus Imaging America Inc.
CENTER VALLEY, Pa., February 26, 2009 � Olympus Corporation commemorates its 90th anniversary by creating the �Olympus Space Project� to photograph the majestic beauty of our planet and raise awareness to protect it. The company�s flagship E-3 digital single lens reflex (DSLR) camera and ZUIKO digital lenses will journey to the International Space Station (ISS) on the next Space Shuttle Discovery mission.
Dr. Koichi Wakata, a Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) astronaut, will take images of the earth with the Olympus E-3 throughout his three-month mission on the ISS. Specifically, he will stay in the �Kibo,� which is the Japanese Experiment Module. It is located in the ISS and is Japan�s first manned facility where astronauts can conduct experiments for long periods of time. �Hope� is the English translation for Kibo, and Dr. Wakata will be the first astronaut to inhabit the new experiment module. Images captured by Dr. Wakata will be available on Olympus� Web site at http://olympus-space-project.com.
�For 90 years we�ve continued to develop innovative products that help improve peoples� lives every day � from capturing memories to documenting environmental changes,� said F. Mark Gumz, president, Olympus Imaging America Inc. �Olympus cameras are used by the National Park Service to track air quality at our nation�s parks and by wildlife photographer Mitsuaki Iwago, whose images focus on global environmental issues and nature preservation. We�re taking this commitment to the next level by capturing our planet�s delicate beauty from space.�
Designed for professional and aspiring photographers, the E-3 offers amazing image quality, splashproof and dustproof durability, and a magnesium-alloy body that survives the toughest shooting environments. The E-3 complies with NASA�s standards for use in space. Olympus continues to be an innovator, developing new technologies to expand the frontiers of digital photography and leading where others have followed. Proof that Olympus enables consumers to capture it all. Product details are available at www.getolympus.com.
Details on the ISS, JAXA, the Japanese Experiment Module, Dr. Wakata and the next mission of the Space Shuttle Discovery are available at http://www.jaxa.jp/index_e.html.
Journalists interested in receiving more information about the Olympus Space Project or Olympus products can contact Michael Bourne, Mullen Public Relations, 978-468-8953 or michael.bourne@mullen.com, or Jennifer Lyons, public relations manager, Olympus Imaging America Inc., 3500 Corporate Parkway, Center Valley, PA 18034, ph: (484) 896-5350 or jennifer.lyons@olympus.com.
ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
The ISS orbits 220 miles above the earth, at a speed of 90 minutes per orbit. It allows scientist to perform studies and experiments in space by taking advantage of special features unique to space. It is built and operated by a consortium of 15 countries, including the United States, Japan, Russia, Canada and 11 nations of the European Space Agency. The Space Shuttle was developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and three shuttles � Discovery, Atlantis and Endeavor � currently travel between NASA�s Kennedy Space Center in Florida and the ISS.
ABOUT OLYMPUS IMAGING AMERICA INC.
Olympus Imaging America Inc. is a precision technology leader, designing and delivering award-winning products for consumer and professional markets.
Olympus Imaging America Inc. works collaboratively with its customers and its ultimate parent company, Olympus Corporation, to develop breakthrough technologies with revolutionary product design and functionality that enhances peoples� lives every day. These include:
* Digital and Film Cameras
* Professional Digital SLR Imaging Systems
* Related Underwater Products and Accessories
* Digital and Microcassette Recorders
* Digital Media
* Binoculars
Olympus Imaging America Inc. is responsible for sales in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. For more information, visit: www.olympusamerica.com.
*All trademarks mentioned herein are the property of their respective holder. �2009 Olympus Imaging America Inc.
Olympus Launches �Space Project� On Shuttle�s Next Mission To International Space Station
Olympus E-3 DSLR to Capture Earth�s Beauty from Space Station, Raise Awareness for Environmental Protection
CENTER VALLEY, Pa., February 26, 2009 � Olympus Corporation commemorates its 90th anniversary by creating the �Olympus Space Project� to photograph the majestic beauty of our planet and raise awareness to protect it. The company�s flagship E-3 digital single lens reflex (DSLR) camera and ZUIKO digital lenses will journey to the International Space Station (ISS) on the next Space Shuttle Discovery mission.
Dr. Koichi Wakata, a Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) astronaut, will take images of the earth with the Olympus E-3 throughout his three-month mission on the ISS. Specifically, he will stay in the �Kibo,� which is the Japanese Experiment Module. It is located in the ISS and is Japan�s first manned facility where astronauts can conduct experiments for long periods of time. �Hope� is the English translation for Kibo, and Dr. Wakata will be the first astronaut to inhabit the new experiment module. Images captured by Dr. Wakata will be available on Olympus� Web site at http://olympus-space-project.com.
�For 90 years we�ve continued to develop innovative products that help improve peoples� lives every day � from capturing memories to documenting environmental changes,� said F. Mark Gumz, president, Olympus Imaging America Inc. �Olympus cameras are used by the National Park Service to track air quality at our nation�s parks and by wildlife photographer Mitsuaki Iwago, whose images focus on global environmental issues and nature preservation. We�re taking this commitment to the next level by capturing our planet�s delicate beauty from space.�
Designed for professional and aspiring photographers, the E-3 offers amazing image quality, splashproof and dustproof durability, and a magnesium-alloy body that survives the toughest shooting environments. The E-3 complies with NASA�s standards for use in space. Olympus continues to be an innovator, developing new technologies to expand the frontiers of digital photography and leading where others have followed. Proof that Olympus enables consumers to capture it all. Product details are available at www.getolympus.com.
Details on the ISS, JAXA, the Japanese Experiment Module, Dr. Wakata and the next mission of the Space Shuttle Discovery are available at http://www.jaxa.jp/index_e.html.
Journalists interested in receiving more information about the Olympus Space Project or Olympus products can contact Michael Bourne, Mullen Public Relations, 978-468-8953 or michael.bourne@mullen.com, or Jennifer Lyons, public relations manager, Olympus Imaging America Inc., 3500 Corporate Parkway, Center Valley, PA 18034, ph: (484) 896-5350 or jennifer.lyons@olympus.com.
ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
The ISS orbits 220 miles above the earth, at a speed of 90 minutes per orbit. It allows scientist to perform studies and experiments in space by taking advantage of special features unique to space. It is built and operated by a consortium of 15 countries, including the United States, Japan, Russia, Canada and 11 nations of the European Space Agency. The Space Shuttle was developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and three shuttles � Discovery, Atlantis and Endeavor � currently travel between NASA�s Kennedy Space Center in Florida and the ISS.
ABOUT OLYMPUS IMAGING AMERICA INC.
Olympus Imaging America Inc. is a precision technology leader, designing and delivering award-winning products for consumer and professional markets.
Olympus Imaging America Inc. works collaboratively with its customers and its ultimate parent company, Olympus Corporation, to develop breakthrough technologies with revolutionary product design and functionality that enhances peoples� lives every day. These include:
* Digital and Film Cameras
* Professional Digital SLR Imaging Systems
* Related Underwater Products and Accessories
* Digital and Microcassette Recorders
* Digital Media
* Binoculars
Olympus Imaging America Inc. is responsible for sales in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. For more information, visit: www.olympusamerica.com.
*All trademarks mentioned herein are the property of their respective holder. �2009 Olympus Imaging America Inc.
CENTER VALLEY, Pa., February 26, 2009 � Olympus Corporation commemorates its 90th anniversary by creating the �Olympus Space Project� to photograph the majestic beauty of our planet and raise awareness to protect it. The company�s flagship E-3 digital single lens reflex (DSLR) camera and ZUIKO digital lenses will journey to the International Space Station (ISS) on the next Space Shuttle Discovery mission.
Dr. Koichi Wakata, a Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) astronaut, will take images of the earth with the Olympus E-3 throughout his three-month mission on the ISS. Specifically, he will stay in the �Kibo,� which is the Japanese Experiment Module. It is located in the ISS and is Japan�s first manned facility where astronauts can conduct experiments for long periods of time. �Hope� is the English translation for Kibo, and Dr. Wakata will be the first astronaut to inhabit the new experiment module. Images captured by Dr. Wakata will be available on Olympus� Web site at http://olympus-space-project.com.
�For 90 years we�ve continued to develop innovative products that help improve peoples� lives every day � from capturing memories to documenting environmental changes,� said F. Mark Gumz, president, Olympus Imaging America Inc. �Olympus cameras are used by the National Park Service to track air quality at our nation�s parks and by wildlife photographer Mitsuaki Iwago, whose images focus on global environmental issues and nature preservation. We�re taking this commitment to the next level by capturing our planet�s delicate beauty from space.�
Designed for professional and aspiring photographers, the E-3 offers amazing image quality, splashproof and dustproof durability, and a magnesium-alloy body that survives the toughest shooting environments. The E-3 complies with NASA�s standards for use in space. Olympus continues to be an innovator, developing new technologies to expand the frontiers of digital photography and leading where others have followed. Proof that Olympus enables consumers to capture it all. Product details are available at www.getolympus.com.
Details on the ISS, JAXA, the Japanese Experiment Module, Dr. Wakata and the next mission of the Space Shuttle Discovery are available at http://www.jaxa.jp/index_e.html.
Journalists interested in receiving more information about the Olympus Space Project or Olympus products can contact Michael Bourne, Mullen Public Relations, 978-468-8953 or michael.bourne@mullen.com, or Jennifer Lyons, public relations manager, Olympus Imaging America Inc., 3500 Corporate Parkway, Center Valley, PA 18034, ph: (484) 896-5350 or jennifer.lyons@olympus.com.
ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
The ISS orbits 220 miles above the earth, at a speed of 90 minutes per orbit. It allows scientist to perform studies and experiments in space by taking advantage of special features unique to space. It is built and operated by a consortium of 15 countries, including the United States, Japan, Russia, Canada and 11 nations of the European Space Agency. The Space Shuttle was developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and three shuttles � Discovery, Atlantis and Endeavor � currently travel between NASA�s Kennedy Space Center in Florida and the ISS.
ABOUT OLYMPUS IMAGING AMERICA INC.
Olympus Imaging America Inc. is a precision technology leader, designing and delivering award-winning products for consumer and professional markets.
Olympus Imaging America Inc. works collaboratively with its customers and its ultimate parent company, Olympus Corporation, to develop breakthrough technologies with revolutionary product design and functionality that enhances peoples� lives every day. These include:
* Digital and Film Cameras
* Professional Digital SLR Imaging Systems
* Related Underwater Products and Accessories
* Digital and Microcassette Recorders
* Digital Media
* Binoculars
Olympus Imaging America Inc. is responsible for sales in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. For more information, visit: www.olympusamerica.com.
*All trademarks mentioned herein are the property of their respective holder. �2009 Olympus Imaging America Inc.
Mervyn King, Governor of the BOE Sings an Old Time Classic: It's Impossible
Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England is singing a classic Perry Como tune It's Impossible.
It's impossible, tell the sun to leave the sky, it's just impossible
It's impossible, ask a baby not to cry, it's just impossible
Can the ocean keep from rushin' to the shore? It's just impossible
If I had you, could I ever want for more? It's just impossible
For to live without your love--It's just impossible
Please sing along with Perry Como while reading Mervyn King: 'Impossible to say' how much capital needed to shore up banking system.
Meanwhile, back in the US, a different tune is playing. That tune is called "Yes We Can". My rebuttal is Dear Mr. President, With All Due Respect ....
Looking ahead, Mervyn King thinks it's impossible, yet Bernanke Rejects �Anything Like� Bank Nationalization before the results of the much ballyhooed "stress test" is even complete. This is like building a bridge without knowing what load the bridge needs to carry. Well maybe the bridge does not collapse, but I would not want to be the first to cross it in a cement truck.
And let's be honest about this. There is a lot of cement on the balance sheets of banks. How much? It's impossible to say with any degree of certainty, which is why mistrust of banks is so high, and the plan of Bernanke and Geither is so misguided.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
It's impossible, tell the sun to leave the sky, it's just impossible
It's impossible, ask a baby not to cry, it's just impossible
Can the ocean keep from rushin' to the shore? It's just impossible
If I had you, could I ever want for more? It's just impossible
For to live without your love--It's just impossible
Please sing along with Perry Como while reading Mervyn King: 'Impossible to say' how much capital needed to shore up banking system.
Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, has said it is "impossible to say" how much capital will be required to shore up the British banking system.I happen to agree with King that it is impossible to say precisely how much is needed to shore up banks, not just in the UK, but the Eurozone, US, China, Ireland, and Australia as well.
Mr King said it would take "many months" to establish the scale of toxic assets held by banks, and the scale of problems would change depending on the international economic outlook.
"That is not something that is easy to do or can be done quickly," he told the MPs. "It will require a much longer and more detailed assessment contract by contract."
"How much capital banks will need in the end is impossible to tell," he added.
But he also suggested public borrowing was too high as the UK entered the crisis and that had affected the Government's response to it. "I do think public debt matters. We get to this crisis with levels of public borrowing which were too high and that made it difficult," he said.
But, he added, that was a "million miles" away from the idea that Britain in any way resembled somewhere like Zimbabwe.
Meanwhile, back in the US, a different tune is playing. That tune is called "Yes We Can". My rebuttal is Dear Mr. President, With All Due Respect ....
Looking ahead, Mervyn King thinks it's impossible, yet Bernanke Rejects �Anything Like� Bank Nationalization before the results of the much ballyhooed "stress test" is even complete. This is like building a bridge without knowing what load the bridge needs to carry. Well maybe the bridge does not collapse, but I would not want to be the first to cross it in a cement truck.
And let's be honest about this. There is a lot of cement on the balance sheets of banks. How much? It's impossible to say with any degree of certainty, which is why mistrust of banks is so high, and the plan of Bernanke and Geither is so misguided.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Ecological Urbanism
This Harvard GSD conference in a little over a month is timely and packed with a strong list of speakers, most GSD faculty, naturally.
(via Dexigner)Ecological Urbanism: Alternative and Sustainable Cities of the Future
The conference will bring together design practitioners and theorists, economists, engineers, environmental scientists, politicians and public health specialists, with the goal of reaching a more robust understanding of ecological urbanism and what it might be in the future.
April 3-5, 2009
Piper Auditorium, Gund Hall, 48 Quincy Street,
KEYNOTE SPEAKERS
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Limited space�Register Now
Early Bird Registration (before March 10, 2009): $100
Standard Registration (after March 10, 2009): $125
Students: $20
Rem Koolhaas
Office for Metropolitan Architecture, Professor in Practice of Architecture and Urban Design, Harvard University GSD
Homi Bhabha
Anne F. Rothenberg Professor of the Humanities, Director of the Humanities Center at Harvard University
Dear Mr. President, With All Due Respect ....
Dear Mr. President, I read your New Era $3.6 Trillion Budget Proposal. I also listened to your speech Tuesday night. You made a great campaign speech. However, the campaign is over. You won. And the reason you won is you offered hope as well as a promise of change.
With all due respect Mr. President, Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke are offering the same policies as President Bush and Secretary Paulson. Those policies are to bail out banks regardless of cost to taxpayers. Mr. President, it's hard enough to overlook Geithner's tax indiscretions. Mr. President, it is harder still. if not impossible, to ignore the fact that neither Geithner nor Bernanke saw this coming. Yet amazingly they are both cock sure of the solution. Even more amazing is the fact that solution changes every day.
With all due respect Mr. President, Geithner and Bernanke are a huge part of the problem, and no part of the solution and the sooner you realize that the better off this nation will be.
With all due respect Mr. President, your budget proposal is the same big government spending as we saw under President Bush. The only difference is you promised more spending and bigger government, while President Bush promised less government and less spending and failed to deliver on either count.
With all due respect Mr. President, it is impossible to spend one's way out of a problem, when the problem is reckless spending.
With all due respect Mr. President, you and Congress want to force banks to lend when banks (by not lending) are acting responsibly for the first time in a decade. Mr, President can you please tell us who banks are supposed to lend to? Do we need any more Home Depots? Pizza Huts? Strip malls? Nail salons? Auto dealerships? What Mr. President? What? And why should banks be lending when unemployment is rising and lending risks right along with it?
With all due respect Mr. President, we were hoping your administration would not carry on the war mongering policies of your predecessor. Instead we see amazingly that you Seek $75.5 Billion More for Wars in 2009. Mr. President, do we really need another $75 billion for wars? Was there nothing in the military budget that could be cut?
With all due respect Mr. President, The United States spends more on its military budget than the next 45 highest spending countries in the world combined; The United States accounts for 48 percent of the world's total military spending; The United States spends on its military 5.8 times more than China, 10.2 times more than Russia, and 98.6 times more than Iran. Isn't that enough Mr. President?
With all due respect Mr. President, the downfall of every great nation in history has been unsustainable military expansion. Mr. President, the US can no longer afford to be the world's policeman. You act as if we can. Mr. President, can you please tell us how we can afford this spending?
With all due respect Mr. President, Fannie Mae Reported A Fourth Quarter Loss Of $25.2 Billion. Can you please tell us where you draw the line on taxpayer bailouts of Fannie Mae? Freddie Mac? AIG? Mr. President is there a line anywhere, on anything? If there is, we would appreciate knowing where it is.
With all due respect Mr. President, how can you talk about reducing the budget deficit while proposing the biggest budget in history?
With all due respect Mr. President, how is it possible to talk about reducing health care costs while proposing to increase the health care budget?
With all due respect Mr. President, you have talked about "hard choices". Can you please tell us what hard choices you have made other than to throw money at every problem? Sure a few programs have changed but Bush orchestrated the biggest Medicaid/Medicare package in history and you upped it. You upped military spending. You criticized McCain for cutting programs that amount to peanuts, and all you can find to cut out of the budget is peanuts.
With all due respect Mr. President, your "Era of New Responsibility" is nothing more than a continuation of the Bush administration Era of Irresponsibility. Mr. President, we hoped for more and deserved more. Yet, behind the charade of campaign messages of hope and change, we essentially see the same fiscal irresponsibility and misguided policies as before. Oh sure Mr. President, your budget priorities have shifted a bit, sadly the irresponsible spending did not.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
With all due respect Mr. President, Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke are offering the same policies as President Bush and Secretary Paulson. Those policies are to bail out banks regardless of cost to taxpayers. Mr. President, it's hard enough to overlook Geithner's tax indiscretions. Mr. President, it is harder still. if not impossible, to ignore the fact that neither Geithner nor Bernanke saw this coming. Yet amazingly they are both cock sure of the solution. Even more amazing is the fact that solution changes every day.
With all due respect Mr. President, Geithner and Bernanke are a huge part of the problem, and no part of the solution and the sooner you realize that the better off this nation will be.
With all due respect Mr. President, your budget proposal is the same big government spending as we saw under President Bush. The only difference is you promised more spending and bigger government, while President Bush promised less government and less spending and failed to deliver on either count.
With all due respect Mr. President, it is impossible to spend one's way out of a problem, when the problem is reckless spending.
With all due respect Mr. President, you and Congress want to force banks to lend when banks (by not lending) are acting responsibly for the first time in a decade. Mr, President can you please tell us who banks are supposed to lend to? Do we need any more Home Depots? Pizza Huts? Strip malls? Nail salons? Auto dealerships? What Mr. President? What? And why should banks be lending when unemployment is rising and lending risks right along with it?
With all due respect Mr. President, we were hoping your administration would not carry on the war mongering policies of your predecessor. Instead we see amazingly that you Seek $75.5 Billion More for Wars in 2009. Mr. President, do we really need another $75 billion for wars? Was there nothing in the military budget that could be cut?
With all due respect Mr. President, The United States spends more on its military budget than the next 45 highest spending countries in the world combined; The United States accounts for 48 percent of the world's total military spending; The United States spends on its military 5.8 times more than China, 10.2 times more than Russia, and 98.6 times more than Iran. Isn't that enough Mr. President?
With all due respect Mr. President, the downfall of every great nation in history has been unsustainable military expansion. Mr. President, the US can no longer afford to be the world's policeman. You act as if we can. Mr. President, can you please tell us how we can afford this spending?
With all due respect Mr. President, Fannie Mae Reported A Fourth Quarter Loss Of $25.2 Billion. Can you please tell us where you draw the line on taxpayer bailouts of Fannie Mae? Freddie Mac? AIG? Mr. President is there a line anywhere, on anything? If there is, we would appreciate knowing where it is.
With all due respect Mr. President, how can you talk about reducing the budget deficit while proposing the biggest budget in history?
With all due respect Mr. President, how is it possible to talk about reducing health care costs while proposing to increase the health care budget?
With all due respect Mr. President, you have talked about "hard choices". Can you please tell us what hard choices you have made other than to throw money at every problem? Sure a few programs have changed but Bush orchestrated the biggest Medicaid/Medicare package in history and you upped it. You upped military spending. You criticized McCain for cutting programs that amount to peanuts, and all you can find to cut out of the budget is peanuts.
With all due respect Mr. President, your "Era of New Responsibility" is nothing more than a continuation of the Bush administration Era of Irresponsibility. Mr. President, we hoped for more and deserved more. Yet, behind the charade of campaign messages of hope and change, we essentially see the same fiscal irresponsibility and misguided policies as before. Oh sure Mr. President, your budget priorities have shifted a bit, sadly the irresponsible spending did not.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
I've been going to a deep, dark place...
It's down here...
It's got floors like this -- EWWW!:
There's usually a lot of this going on:
Hide your eyes...it's scary...
this is the worst part:
AHHHHHH!!!!! I know!!!God Bless blogging...but it has created a bloggy butt on this Chick. Seriously...I say I've gained ten pounds in the past year...
But really. It's only been since, maybe October, when I really got into the blogging stuff. That's what, FIVE MONTHS?
Sick, I tell you. So this is how I spend
It's time to get my butt back.
Check.
Remote?
Check.
Phone?
Check.
Ipod playing NKOTB?
Check.
Next week, I start on this monster again:
Next week, I start on this monster again:
I'm sceeeeered!!!
P.S. Your comments on my last post made ME all weepy. So sweet!!
P.P.S. I met one of my bloggy friends today! I can't wait to tell you about it. I also picked up an Easter/springy craft I will show you this weekend.
Pentax DA* 55mm f/1.4 SDM Lens Review
As most of our regular readers know, I have a special place in my heart for prime lenses, and for Pentax. Modern zoom lenses provide the most flexibility when composing, but prime lenses offer better low light performance and the ability to isolate your subject with shallow depth of field. The 55mm focal length on Pentax DSLRs works well as a general portrait lens, and the SDM auto focus motor makes this lens much quieter than previous-generation prime lenses.
In short, the new 55mm is an amazing lens with fabulous edge-to-edge sharpness, great bokeh, and exceptional build quality common to the best Pentax prime lenses. However, auto focus inconsistencies and some strong purple fringing wide open at f/1.4 make this lens a questionable value at full MSRP ... at least as long as the old FA 50mm lens is still available.
Pros:
* Bright f/1.4 aperture for shooting in available light
* Excellent contrast
* Excellent center and corner sharpness
* Amazing bokeh for selective focus
* Great color
* Quiet SDM auto focus
Cons:
* SDM focus accuracy varies depending on camera body (K10D had back focus, K2000 had perfect focus)
* SDM auto focus speed not any better than auto focus speed on the old Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
* Suffers from more purple fringing at center of image when "wide open" than older Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
* Much more expensive than the old Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
JerryJ
Read More : digitalcamerareview
In short, the new 55mm is an amazing lens with fabulous edge-to-edge sharpness, great bokeh, and exceptional build quality common to the best Pentax prime lenses. However, auto focus inconsistencies and some strong purple fringing wide open at f/1.4 make this lens a questionable value at full MSRP ... at least as long as the old FA 50mm lens is still available.
Pros:
* Bright f/1.4 aperture for shooting in available light
* Excellent contrast
* Excellent center and corner sharpness
* Amazing bokeh for selective focus
* Great color
* Quiet SDM auto focus
Cons:
* SDM focus accuracy varies depending on camera body (K10D had back focus, K2000 had perfect focus)
* SDM auto focus speed not any better than auto focus speed on the old Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
* Suffers from more purple fringing at center of image when "wide open" than older Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
* Much more expensive than the old Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
JerryJ
Read More : digitalcamerareview
Pentax DA* 55mm f/1.4 SDM Lens Review
As most of our regular readers know, I have a special place in my heart for prime lenses, and for Pentax. Modern zoom lenses provide the most flexibility when composing, but prime lenses offer better low light performance and the ability to isolate your subject with shallow depth of field. The 55mm focal length on Pentax DSLRs works well as a general portrait lens, and the SDM auto focus motor makes this lens much quieter than previous-generation prime lenses.
In short, the new 55mm is an amazing lens with fabulous edge-to-edge sharpness, great bokeh, and exceptional build quality common to the best Pentax prime lenses. However, auto focus inconsistencies and some strong purple fringing wide open at f/1.4 make this lens a questionable value at full MSRP ... at least as long as the old FA 50mm lens is still available.
Pros:
* Bright f/1.4 aperture for shooting in available light
* Excellent contrast
* Excellent center and corner sharpness
* Amazing bokeh for selective focus
* Great color
* Quiet SDM auto focus
Cons:
* SDM focus accuracy varies depending on camera body (K10D had back focus, K2000 had perfect focus)
* SDM auto focus speed not any better than auto focus speed on the old Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
* Suffers from more purple fringing at center of image when "wide open" than older Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
* Much more expensive than the old Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
JerryJ
Read More : digitalcamerareview
In short, the new 55mm is an amazing lens with fabulous edge-to-edge sharpness, great bokeh, and exceptional build quality common to the best Pentax prime lenses. However, auto focus inconsistencies and some strong purple fringing wide open at f/1.4 make this lens a questionable value at full MSRP ... at least as long as the old FA 50mm lens is still available.
Pros:
* Bright f/1.4 aperture for shooting in available light
* Excellent contrast
* Excellent center and corner sharpness
* Amazing bokeh for selective focus
* Great color
* Quiet SDM auto focus
Cons:
* SDM focus accuracy varies depending on camera body (K10D had back focus, K2000 had perfect focus)
* SDM auto focus speed not any better than auto focus speed on the old Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
* Suffers from more purple fringing at center of image when "wide open" than older Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
* Much more expensive than the old Pentax FA 50mm f/1.4 lens
JerryJ
Read More : digitalcamerareview
PENTAX LOWERS PRICE ON FEATURE-RICH, 14.6 MEGAPIXEL K20D
PENTAX Imaging Company has announced a reduction in the minimum advertised price (MAP) of the award winning PENTAX K20 digital SLR. Effective immediately, the MAP price of the PENTAX K20D body and two K20D lens kit configurations have been reduced by $200.00 USD. The new MAP pricing is as follows:
PENTAX K20D body only: $799.95
PENTAX K20D with DA 18-55mm II lens kit: $879.95
PENTAX K20D with DA 16-45mm lens kit: $1199.95
�With this price reduction, PENTAX now offers consumers the highest resolution on one of the most fully-featured DSLRs priced under 800 dollars,� said Bill Zani, vice president sales and marketing, PENTAX Imaging Company.
Along with the price reductions, PENTAX is extending the K20D FREE Three Year Warranty (one year standard, two years extended) on all K20Ds purchased by March 31, 2009.
Highly rated by several consumer magazines, the PENTAX K20D digital SLR camera with 14.6 megapixels is equipped with advanced features including a dust-proof, weather-resistant body, PRIME image processor that allows full image customization, and PENTAX developed Shake Reduction that works with any of the 25 million PENTAX lenses ever manufactured. The PENTAX K20D is the most affordable high resolution DSLR camera in the advanced photo enthusiast category and allows more experienced photographers, who demand complete control, to fully customize the camera.
Visit www.pentaximaging.com to learn more and to locate a dealer.
PENTAX Imaging Company is an innovative leader in the production of digital SLR and compact cameras, lenses, flash units, binoculars, scopes, and eyepieces. For 90 years, PENTAX technology has developed durable, reliable products that meet the needs of consumers and businesses. With headquarters in Golden, Colorado, PENTAX Imaging Company is a division of PENTAX of America, Inc.
PENTAX K20D body only: $799.95
PENTAX K20D with DA 18-55mm II lens kit: $879.95
PENTAX K20D with DA 16-45mm lens kit: $1199.95
�With this price reduction, PENTAX now offers consumers the highest resolution on one of the most fully-featured DSLRs priced under 800 dollars,� said Bill Zani, vice president sales and marketing, PENTAX Imaging Company.
Along with the price reductions, PENTAX is extending the K20D FREE Three Year Warranty (one year standard, two years extended) on all K20Ds purchased by March 31, 2009.
Highly rated by several consumer magazines, the PENTAX K20D digital SLR camera with 14.6 megapixels is equipped with advanced features including a dust-proof, weather-resistant body, PRIME image processor that allows full image customization, and PENTAX developed Shake Reduction that works with any of the 25 million PENTAX lenses ever manufactured. The PENTAX K20D is the most affordable high resolution DSLR camera in the advanced photo enthusiast category and allows more experienced photographers, who demand complete control, to fully customize the camera.
Visit www.pentaximaging.com to learn more and to locate a dealer.
PENTAX Imaging Company is an innovative leader in the production of digital SLR and compact cameras, lenses, flash units, binoculars, scopes, and eyepieces. For 90 years, PENTAX technology has developed durable, reliable products that meet the needs of consumers and businesses. With headquarters in Golden, Colorado, PENTAX Imaging Company is a division of PENTAX of America, Inc.
PENTAX LOWERS PRICE ON FEATURE-RICH, 14.6 MEGAPIXEL K20D
PENTAX Imaging Company has announced a reduction in the minimum advertised price (MAP) of the award winning PENTAX K20 digital SLR. Effective immediately, the MAP price of the PENTAX K20D body and two K20D lens kit configurations have been reduced by $200.00 USD. The new MAP pricing is as follows:
PENTAX K20D body only: $799.95
PENTAX K20D with DA 18-55mm II lens kit: $879.95
PENTAX K20D with DA 16-45mm lens kit: $1199.95
�With this price reduction, PENTAX now offers consumers the highest resolution on one of the most fully-featured DSLRs priced under 800 dollars,� said Bill Zani, vice president sales and marketing, PENTAX Imaging Company.
Along with the price reductions, PENTAX is extending the K20D FREE Three Year Warranty (one year standard, two years extended) on all K20Ds purchased by March 31, 2009.
Highly rated by several consumer magazines, the PENTAX K20D digital SLR camera with 14.6 megapixels is equipped with advanced features including a dust-proof, weather-resistant body, PRIME image processor that allows full image customization, and PENTAX developed Shake Reduction that works with any of the 25 million PENTAX lenses ever manufactured. The PENTAX K20D is the most affordable high resolution DSLR camera in the advanced photo enthusiast category and allows more experienced photographers, who demand complete control, to fully customize the camera.
Visit www.pentaximaging.com to learn more and to locate a dealer.
PENTAX Imaging Company is an innovative leader in the production of digital SLR and compact cameras, lenses, flash units, binoculars, scopes, and eyepieces. For 90 years, PENTAX technology has developed durable, reliable products that meet the needs of consumers and businesses. With headquarters in Golden, Colorado, PENTAX Imaging Company is a division of PENTAX of America, Inc.
PENTAX K20D body only: $799.95
PENTAX K20D with DA 18-55mm II lens kit: $879.95
PENTAX K20D with DA 16-45mm lens kit: $1199.95
�With this price reduction, PENTAX now offers consumers the highest resolution on one of the most fully-featured DSLRs priced under 800 dollars,� said Bill Zani, vice president sales and marketing, PENTAX Imaging Company.
Along with the price reductions, PENTAX is extending the K20D FREE Three Year Warranty (one year standard, two years extended) on all K20Ds purchased by March 31, 2009.
Highly rated by several consumer magazines, the PENTAX K20D digital SLR camera with 14.6 megapixels is equipped with advanced features including a dust-proof, weather-resistant body, PRIME image processor that allows full image customization, and PENTAX developed Shake Reduction that works with any of the 25 million PENTAX lenses ever manufactured. The PENTAX K20D is the most affordable high resolution DSLR camera in the advanced photo enthusiast category and allows more experienced photographers, who demand complete control, to fully customize the camera.
Visit www.pentaximaging.com to learn more and to locate a dealer.
PENTAX Imaging Company is an innovative leader in the production of digital SLR and compact cameras, lenses, flash units, binoculars, scopes, and eyepieces. For 90 years, PENTAX technology has developed durable, reliable products that meet the needs of consumers and businesses. With headquarters in Golden, Colorado, PENTAX Imaging Company is a division of PENTAX of America, Inc.
Learn to draw Transformer 2 character Ravage tutorial
Learn how to draw Ravage from Transformer 2 movie inspired design, Mecha Mecha: style step by step voice over explaining in general art demo. This drawing, painting video tutorial shows you from basic rough sketching to finish drawing quick sketch for comics cartoon illustration, manga, anime.
The sketch took me about 20-30 mins inspired by the Transformer 2 trailer.
I am sort of Excited about the movie. The first one didn't impress me much, but I like it. I saw a clip of Ravage on the Revenge of the Fallen, so I am just trying to do my take on it. Anyway, I heard rumor that Megatron will not appear in this one but I could be wrong.
Enjoy the tutorial:
Here are step by step process:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6) Final sketch
Watch the Video process: Drawing Ravage from Transformer 2
New Drawing Video tutorials:
-Drawing Watchmen Character Silk Spectre
-Learn how to draw Watchmen character: Nite Owl
-Concept art tutorial Hovercraft
-How to draw man's head basic
-Drawing Male Face Swordman
-Character Design Face Male Merchant Character
-Environmental concept Ice landscape
FEATURE TUTORIALS:
-Draw and Paint Women Body Tutorial I: Female Manga Fusion I
-Draw and Paint Women Body Tutorial II: Female Manga Fusion II
-Character Design Tutorial: Dark Valkyrie
MORE Brushes Download: FREE
- Scales Brush Set for Photoshop
- Fire Brushes for Photoshop and Gimp
- Splatter Brushes for Photoshop
The sketch took me about 20-30 mins inspired by the Transformer 2 trailer.
I am sort of Excited about the movie. The first one didn't impress me much, but I like it. I saw a clip of Ravage on the Revenge of the Fallen, so I am just trying to do my take on it. Anyway, I heard rumor that Megatron will not appear in this one but I could be wrong.
Enjoy the tutorial:
Here is a final sketch:
Here are step by step process:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6) Final sketch
Watch the Video process: Drawing Ravage from Transformer 2
New Drawing Video tutorials:
-Drawing Watchmen Character Silk Spectre
-Learn how to draw Watchmen character: Nite Owl
-Concept art tutorial Hovercraft
-How to draw man's head basic
-Drawing Male Face Swordman
-Character Design Face Male Merchant Character
-Environmental concept Ice landscape
FEATURE TUTORIALS:
-Draw and Paint Women Body Tutorial I: Female Manga Fusion I
-Draw and Paint Women Body Tutorial II: Female Manga Fusion II
-Character Design Tutorial: Dark Valkyrie
MORE Brushes Download: FREE
- Scales Brush Set for Photoshop
- Fire Brushes for Photoshop and Gimp
- Splatter Brushes for Photoshop
Today's archidose #290
Construction of the Wainright Building in St. Louis, Missouri by Dankmar Adler and Louis Sullivan, 1890-1891.
To contribute your Flickr images for consideration, just:
:: Join and add photos to the archidose pool, and/or
:: Tag your photos archidose
Durable Goods Orders Plunge; Weekly Claims Soar
A double shot of bad news was released today with durable goods orders plunging and unemployment claims soaring. Please consider Durable Goods Orders Drop for Sixth Consecutive Month.
Inquiring minds are investigating the latest Weekly Unemployment Claims statistics. Here are the grim details.
The best numbers to watch are the 4 week moving averages because they smooth out minor week to week fluctuation noise. The numbers are ticking up substantially. A year ago the numbers were bad, and they are far worse now.
Signs are in place suggesting another 500,000 jobs or more will be lost in the next monthly BLS jobs report.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Orders for U.S. durable goods fell for a record sixth consecutive month in January, signaling companies are cutting back on spending as customers worldwide retrench.Weekly Claims Hit 667,000
The 5.2 percent drop was more than twice as large as projected and followed a 4.6 percent decrease the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Comparable data began in 1992. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell 2.5 percent.
�Businesses are cutting back everyplace they can in order to survive the recession,� said Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. �The slowdown in business spending at the end of last year apparently picked up speed at the beginning of the year.�
Demand for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, plunged 5.4 percent after falling 5.8 percent the prior month. Shipments of those items, used in calculating gross domestic product, dropped 6.6 percent.
Orders excluding defense equipment decreased 2.3 percent and bookings for military gear dropped 35 percent.
Transportation equipment demand slumped 13.5, with autos down 6.4 percent for a second month. Commercial aircraft orders surged 82 percent following a 59 percent drop.
Today�s report showed orders for metals, machinery and computers also dropped. Only communications gear and aircraft advanced.
Tight credit and a global recession indicate demand for aircraft is likely to slump in coming months. Boeing Co., whose new 787 Dreamliner is now almost two years behind schedule, said Feb. 19 it lost another order for the plane in the prior week, bringing total cancellations to 33.
�Cancellations are especially affecting aircraft makers and other heavy industries like mining as customers feel the credit pinch,� said Brian Bethune, chief financial economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.
Today�s report also showed order backlogs dropped and companies cut stockpiles. The 0.8 percent decline in inventories was the biggest since September 2003. Unfilled orders fell 1.9 percent, the most since January 2002.
Smaller backlogs indicate manufacturing will be slow to recover even after the economy gains traction.
Inquiring minds are investigating the latest Weekly Unemployment Claims statistics. Here are the grim details.
In the week ending Feb. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 667,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 631,000. The 4-week moving average was 639,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week's revised average of 620,000.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 14 was 5,112,000, an increase of 114,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,998,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,932,250, an increase of 89,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,843,000.
The best numbers to watch are the 4 week moving averages because they smooth out minor week to week fluctuation noise. The numbers are ticking up substantially. A year ago the numbers were bad, and they are far worse now.
Signs are in place suggesting another 500,000 jobs or more will be lost in the next monthly BLS jobs report.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Bernanke's Boiled Frog Plan To Recapitalize Banks
Bernanke has fired yet another misguided missile to stabilize the banking system. His new program is called the Capital Assistance Program and supposedly it will restore confidence in banks and get them to lend. Here is a description of the program:
1) Amazingly CAP fact sheet states the securities will yield a 9% dividend. However, any bank troubled enough to need the CAP is likewise too troubled to be able to pay a 9% dividend. Banks can't get a 9% return on borrowed money everyone knows it. Instead, expect preferred shares to be converted to common at inflated prices.
2) Digging a bit deeper into the fact sheet we see the "Conversion price is 90% of the average closing price for the common stock for the 20 trading day period ending February 9, 2009."
Think February 9 was selected at random? Think again. The first box in the charts below is the 20 days ending February 9. Compare to what has happened since.
Citigroup Chart For February
click on chart for sharper image
Bank of America Chart For February
click on chart for sharper image
Bernanake Reassures Investors
The CAP plan White Paper goes on to say ...
"By reassuring investors, creditors, and counterparties of banking institutions--as well as the institutions themselves--that banks have capital in a sufficient amount and quality to withstand even a considerably weaker-than-expected economic environment, the CAP instrument should improve confidence and increase the willingness of banking institutions to lend."'
Those assurances amount to a promise to continually stick it to taxpayers, no matter what the cost.
Citi Near Deal to Boost U.S. Stake to as Much as 40%
The Wall Street Journal is reporting Citi Near Deal to Boost U.S. Stake to as Much as 40%.
Bernanke Rejects �Anything Like� Bank Nationalization
It appears the nationalization train has run into a brick wall, perhaps because there was never any agreement as to what "nationalization" means. Let's tune into Bernanke Rejects �Anything Like� Bank Nationalization.
Mysterious Plans
Very seldom do I completely agree with Krugman. In fact, this is the first time that I can recall. Please consider Mysterious plans
Inquiring minds are reading Tangible Common Equity for Beginners.
Minyan Peter has an interesting take in The Amazing, Shape-Shifting Convertible Preferred.
The only reason banks are not on an "out-of-control course to nationalization" is Bernanke is on an "out-of-control" mission to rescue banks regardless of what it costs taxpayers. The Fed clearly has no idea what it is doing and is making things up along the way.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
The purpose of the CAP is to restore confidence throughout the financial system that the nation's largest banking institutions have a sufficient capital cushion against larger than expected future losses, should they occur due to a more severe economic environment, and to support lending to creditworthy borrowers.CAP Facts
Terms
- Capital provided under the CAP will be in the form of a preferred security that is convertible into common equity at a 10 percent discount to the price prevailing prior to February 9th.
- CAP securities will carry a 9 percent dividend yield and would be convertible at the issuer's option (subject to the approval of their regulator).
- After 7 years, the security would automatically convert into common equity if not redeemed or converted before that date.
- The instrument is designed to give banks the incentive to replace USG-provided capital with private capital or to redeem the USG capital when conditions permit.
- With supervisory approval, banks will be able to request capital under the CAP in addition to their existing CPP preferred stock.
- With supervisory approval, banks will also be allowed to apply to exchange the existing CPP preferred stock for the new CAP instrument.
1) Amazingly CAP fact sheet states the securities will yield a 9% dividend. However, any bank troubled enough to need the CAP is likewise too troubled to be able to pay a 9% dividend. Banks can't get a 9% return on borrowed money everyone knows it. Instead, expect preferred shares to be converted to common at inflated prices.
2) Digging a bit deeper into the fact sheet we see the "Conversion price is 90% of the average closing price for the common stock for the 20 trading day period ending February 9, 2009."
Think February 9 was selected at random? Think again. The first box in the charts below is the 20 days ending February 9. Compare to what has happened since.
Citigroup Chart For February
click on chart for sharper image
Bank of America Chart For February
click on chart for sharper image
Bernanake Reassures Investors
The CAP plan White Paper goes on to say ...
"By reassuring investors, creditors, and counterparties of banking institutions--as well as the institutions themselves--that banks have capital in a sufficient amount and quality to withstand even a considerably weaker-than-expected economic environment, the CAP instrument should improve confidence and increase the willingness of banking institutions to lend."'
Those assurances amount to a promise to continually stick it to taxpayers, no matter what the cost.
Citi Near Deal to Boost U.S. Stake to as Much as 40%
The Wall Street Journal is reporting Citi Near Deal to Boost U.S. Stake to as Much as 40%.
Citigroup Inc. may announce a deal with the U.S. as soon as tomorrow that could raise the government's stake to as much as 40 percent, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.Based on the above, expect taxpayers to be forced into supporting Citigroup at substantially above market prices. Remember, taxpayers are on the hook for $300 billion in debt guarantees for which we got a lousy $7 billion in preferred shares. Those shares are about to be diluted further.
The deal may cause Citigroup to sell part of the company's stake in Grupo Financiero Banamex, the Mexican bank, because Mexico prohibits companies with a more than 10 percent ownership by a foreign government from running a bank in Mexico, the newspaper said.
Bernanke Rejects �Anything Like� Bank Nationalization
It appears the nationalization train has run into a brick wall, perhaps because there was never any agreement as to what "nationalization" means. Let's tune into Bernanke Rejects �Anything Like� Bank Nationalization.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said while the U.S. government may take �substantial� stakes in Citigroup Inc. and other banks, it doesn�t plan a full- scale nationalization that wipes out stockholders.Somehow taking a a �substantial� share in banks and injecting more money over time is nothing "like nationalization".
Nationalization is when the government �seizes� a company, �zeroes out the shareholders and begins to manage and run the bank, and we don�t plan anything like that,� Bernanke told lawmakers in Washington today.
In the case of Citigroup Inc., the government may end up with a �substantial� share of the lender�s stock, he said. Oversight of the company would be accomplished through regulators and by exerting �shareholder rights,� Bernanke said.
The Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and other banking regulators said in a joint statement on Feb. 23 that they stood ready to pump more capital into banks, or convert some of the government�s outstanding preferred shares into common, to prevent their failures. The stress tests are scheduled to begin today, according to that statement.
�We will see how their test works out, and we will see what evolves,� Bernanke said. �If in fact they have to convert even the existing preferred into common, then there could be a more substantial share of ownership of Citi by the U.S. government.�
Mysterious Plans
Very seldom do I completely agree with Krugman. In fact, this is the first time that I can recall. Please consider Mysterious plans
I�m trying to be sympathetic to the various plans, or rumors of plans, for bank aid; but I keep not being able to understand either what the plans are, or why they�re supposed to work. And I don�t think it�s me.Tangible Common Equity for Beginners
So the latest is that we�re going to convert preferred stock held by the government to common stock, maybe.
Here�s my stylized picture of the situation:
What Treasury now seems to be proposing is converting some of the green equity to blue equity � converting preferred to common. It�s true that preferred stock has some debt-like qualities � there are required dividend payments, etc.. But does anyone think that the reason banks are crippled is that they are tied down by their obligations to preferred stockholders, as opposed to having too much plain vanilla debt?
I just don�t get it. And my sinking feeling that the administration plan is to rearrange the deck chairs and hope the iceberg melts just keeps getting stronger.
Inquiring minds are reading Tangible Common Equity for Beginners.
The initial government investments in Citigroup, back in October and November, were in the form of preferred shares. Between the two bailouts, the government put in $45 billion in cash and got $52 billion in preferred stock (the $7 billion difference was the fee for the guarantee on $300 billion of Citi assets). That preferred stock was designed to be much closer to debt than to equity: it pays a dividend (5% or 8%), it cannot be converted into common stock (so it cannot dilute the existing shareholders), it has no voting rights, and it carries a penalty if it isn�t bought back within five years. In fact, it is hard to distinguish from debt, except perhaps for the fact that, if Citi defaults on it (cannot buy the shares back) we don�t need to worry about systemic instability, because the government can absorb the loss. As preferred stock, these bailouts boosted Citi�s Tier 1 capital, but not its TCE.The Amazing, Shape-Shifting Convertible Preferred
Because of the newly perceived need for TCE, the bailout plan under discussion is to convert some of the preferred stock into common stock. Citi wouldn�t actually get any new cash from the government, but it would be relieved some of the dividend payments (currently close to $3 billion per year), and of the obligation to buy back the shares in five years.
The trick is deciding what price to convert the shares at. All of Citi�s common shares today are worth around $12 billion, so if you converted $52 billion of preferred shares into common, the government would suddenly own over 80% of Citi. (In the conversion, you divide the value of the preferred stock you are converting by the price of the common stock, and that yields the number of common shares the government now owns.)
The Geithner team is still continuing the Paulson policy of avoiding anything that looks like nationalization, so the talk is that the government ownership will be capped at 40%; that means the government could only convert about $8 billion of its preferred stock. There will probably be some clever manipulation of the numbers to say that the preferred stock is actually worth less than $52 billion, or that it should be converted at a higher price than the current market price of the stock.
(This seems like a blatant subsidy to me, since new investors buying large blocks of stock in a public company typically pay less than the current market price.) There is also talk of trying to get some of Citi�s other preferred stock holders to convert as well, because the more they convert, the more common shares, and hence the more the government can have without going over the 40% limit.
Minyan Peter has an interesting take in The Amazing, Shape-Shifting Convertible Preferred.
I have been asked whether there was anything in Chairman Bernanke�s speech yesterday that changed my outlook on the prospects of nationalization for some of our largest financial institutions. In a word: �No.�I'm sticking with my version of the story: The Fed Is Clueless and Banks are Zombified.
Knowing that there are teams of professionals on Wall Street dedicated to giving new hybrid securities cute names, let me suggest that the government henceforth refer to these incremental investments as �Maybetorily� Convertible Preferreds - as in, maybe they're straight preferred stock, maybe they're common stock, maybe they're gone altogether - it all depends on how bad the economy gets from here.
How these Maybetorily Convertible securities can in any way provide the impetus for further private-sector investment into the common stock of our banking system confounds me. As I see it, if implemented, existing common shareholders have at best the same upside they previously had, with exponentially larger downside.
So rather than throwing the frogs (banks) into nationalizing boiling water immediately, the government is going to place them in a tepid bath and watch, suggesting, at least this week, that while they may have to turn up the temperature a little bit (�temporarily�), no one will ultimately get burned.
Maybe, maybe not.
The only reason banks are not on an "out-of-control course to nationalization" is Bernanke is on an "out-of-control" mission to rescue banks regardless of what it costs taxpayers. The Fed clearly has no idea what it is doing and is making things up along the way.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Adding Twitter Search to Google Analytics
Recently WebTrends blogged that Twitter search will now be listed in the standard search engine and keywords report in WebTrends. Omniture has also blogged about integrating Twitter search data into Site Catalyst.
As Twitter increasingly becomes a tool that people use to find information it is really critical for companies to know how people are finding their sites on Twitter. Doing so will allow them to incorporate that learning into future marketing efforts on Twitter as well as other sources (e.g. Google etc).
Since Google Analytics does not yet recognize Twitter search as a search engine like WebTrends or Ominiture does, I will show you how you can do it easily with one line of code.
However, keep in mind this solution only works when the search originates on Twitter (i.e. http://search.twitter.com). 3rd party tools like TweetDeck, those will not be captured in this solution (nor will it, I believe, be captured in WebTrends� solution). Use this information to understand general search keywords being searched on Twitter but do not get caught up in actual number of visits that your Twitter efforts are driving.
So how do you capture searches conducted in Twitter?
GA provides a few functions to allow you to add your own search engines to the list of search engines that are already tracked by GA.
_addOrganic(newOrganicEngine, newOrganicKeyword)
You simply call this function right after var pageTracker = _gat._getTracker("UA-XXXXXX-X"); This functions to track any custom search engine.
Twitter uses "q" as the querystring that contains the keyword. So in this case our search engine is search.twitter.com and newOrganicKeyword is the value in query string q
So you code will look like
var pageTracker = _gat._getTracker("UA-XXXXXX-X");
pageTracker._addOrganic("search.twitter.com", "q")
pageTracker._trackPageview();
(Note: pageTracker._addOrganic("twitter", "q") will also work)
What will the reports look like in Google Analytics?
Note: For some reason I cannot get Twitter search to show up as Twitter in Google Analytics Search Engines report, it shows up as "search"(Maybe it�s a bug in GA? If anybody can provide pointer that will be a great help). However, for now this works fine as long as you know what "search" means in your search engine report. I am playing with filters and if I get that resolved I will post the fix or if you know the fix please email me.
Search Engines Report will show the following:
Drilling down to keywords will show the keywords on Twitter Search.
Looks like Twitter Search brings me repeat visits and more engaged traffic.
Comments? Questions?
My other posts on Twitter:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking to fill your Web Analytics or Online Marketing position?Post your open jobs on http://www.web-analytics-jobs.com/
Sr/Lead Analytic Warehouse/Java Engineer at Saas Company In the SF Bay Area (Emeryville, CA)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site: AnilBatra.com
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/anilbatra
As Twitter increasingly becomes a tool that people use to find information it is really critical for companies to know how people are finding their sites on Twitter. Doing so will allow them to incorporate that learning into future marketing efforts on Twitter as well as other sources (e.g. Google etc).
Since Google Analytics does not yet recognize Twitter search as a search engine like WebTrends or Ominiture does, I will show you how you can do it easily with one line of code.
However, keep in mind this solution only works when the search originates on Twitter (i.e. http://search.twitter.com). 3rd party tools like TweetDeck, those will not be captured in this solution (nor will it, I believe, be captured in WebTrends� solution). Use this information to understand general search keywords being searched on Twitter but do not get caught up in actual number of visits that your Twitter efforts are driving.
So how do you capture searches conducted in Twitter?
GA provides a few functions to allow you to add your own search engines to the list of search engines that are already tracked by GA.
_addOrganic(newOrganicEngine, newOrganicKeyword)
You simply call this function right after var pageTracker = _gat._getTracker("UA-XXXXXX-X"); This functions to track any custom search engine.
Twitter uses "q" as the querystring that contains the keyword. So in this case our search engine is search.twitter.com and newOrganicKeyword is the value in query string q
So you code will look like
var pageTracker = _gat._getTracker("UA-XXXXXX-X");
pageTracker._addOrganic("search.twitter.com", "q")
pageTracker._trackPageview();
(Note: pageTracker._addOrganic("twitter", "q") will also work)
What will the reports look like in Google Analytics?
Note: For some reason I cannot get Twitter search to show up as Twitter in Google Analytics Search Engines report, it shows up as "search"(Maybe it�s a bug in GA? If anybody can provide pointer that will be a great help). However, for now this works fine as long as you know what "search" means in your search engine report. I am playing with filters and if I get that resolved I will post the fix or if you know the fix please email me.
Search Engines Report will show the following:
Drilling down to keywords will show the keywords on Twitter Search.
Looks like Twitter Search brings me repeat visits and more engaged traffic.
Comments? Questions?
My other posts on Twitter:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking to fill your Web Analytics or Online Marketing position?Post your open jobs on http://www.web-analytics-jobs.com/
Sr/Lead Analytic Warehouse/Java Engineer at Saas Company In the SF Bay Area (Emeryville, CA)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site: AnilBatra.com
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/anilbatra
Bernanke Admits Fed Is Clueless and Banks are Zombified
Inquiring minds are asking "To what extent is the Fed is in the dark?"
Amazingly Bernanke answered that question today in Congress with complete candor. All you need to know is how to translate his statements. Please consider Bernanke tells Congress Fed knows what it is doing.
"We're making it up as we go along"
"We have no idea what we are doing so the program changes every day"
"We are completely in the dark"
As Bernanke clearly said... "We have no idea what we are doing. We're completely in the dark, making things up as we go along."
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Amazingly Bernanke answered that question today in Congress with complete candor. All you need to know is how to translate his statements. Please consider Bernanke tells Congress Fed knows what it is doing.
Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke tried to assure Congress and investors that federal regulators are not grasping at straws in the response to the financial crisis.My Translation:
"We're not making it up," Bernanke told the House Financial Services panel.
"We're working along a program that has been applied in various contexts."
"We're not completely in the dark."
"We're making it up as we go along"
"We have no idea what we are doing so the program changes every day"
"We are completely in the dark"
Bernanke is trying to reinforce his message to Congress that the Fed and the Obama administration now have at least the outlines of a bank rescue plan in place that will show results over time and that banks are not on an out-of-control course to nationalization.My Comment: The only reason banks are not on an "out-of-control course to nationalization" is Bernanke is on an "out-of-control" mission to rescue banks regardless of what it costs taxpayers.
Bernanke assurance Tuesday to the Senate Banking Committee that the federal government doesn't want to nationalize the nation's largest banks was cited as a major factor in the stock market's rebound. Bernanke said regulators would ensure than banks did not turn into zombie banks.My Comment: Now Bernanke wants to take credit for a one day relief rally as if correlation was causation. Furthermore, it's impossible for banks to turn into Zombie banks. They are already Zombie Banks, kept alive by the blood of taxpayers as explained in Bernanke's Hide and Seek Delaying Tactics.
Bernanke said that the government was prepared to inject capital to fix holes in the banks caused to the sudden sharp drop in their assets. But the size of the holes remains an open question.My Comment: If the size of the holes is "an open question" then so is the amount of taxpayer blood needed to rescue them.
Rep. Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat and chairman of the House panel, told members to curb their anger for the cost of the bailout. He said that it was impossible to send all culprits in the crisis to the gallows.My Comment: For starters we should send the Fed, Geithner, and Barney Frank to the gallows.
Another interesting point from the first day of the hearing was that the idea that the Fed was planning to buy long-term Treasurys has moved to the back-burner.How long before that idea is back on the front burner? No one knows because the Fed is making up the rules of the game day-by-day.
As Bernanke clearly said... "We have no idea what we are doing. We're completely in the dark, making things up as we go along."
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
German, Japanese Exports Plunge
In conjunction with falling consumer demand for auto and electronics, Japan�s Exports Plunge 46% in a Year.
Bloomberg is reporting German Economic Contraction Driven by Export Slump.
The European Automobile Manufacturers Association is reporting European Truck Sales Plunged 35% in January as Slump Deepened.
When demand drops, output follows. Toyota Cuts January Vehicle Production by Most Since 1987
The key is consumer attitudes towards debt and spending have changed, and those attitudes are not changing back. Expect a long, deep recession no matter what Obama and Bernanke do.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Japan�s exports plunged 45.7 percent in January from a year earlier, resulting in a record trade deficit, as recessions in the United States and Europe smothered demand for the country�s cars and electronics.German Contraction Driven by Export Slump
The shortfall widened to 952.6 billion yen ($9.9 billion), the Finance Ministry said on Wednesday in Tokyo. It was the biggest deficit since 1980, the earliest year for which there is comparable data. The drop in shipments abroad eclipsed a record 35 percent decline set in December.
Exports to the United States tumbled 52.9 percent from a year earlier, and shipments to Europe also posted big declines. The collapse is likely to force Japanese companies to keep firing workers and closing factories, worsening an economy that shrank the most in 34 years last quarter.
Bloomberg is reporting German Economic Contraction Driven by Export Slump.
German exports slumped in the fourth quarter, causing Europe�s largest economy to contract the most in 22 years.European Truck Sales Plunge 35%
Exports dropped 7.3 percent from the previous quarter and company investment in plant and machinery declined 4.9 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Companies are scaling back production and cutting jobs as global growth grinds to a halt and demand for exports wanes. The German government expects the economy to contract 2.25 percent this year, its worst performance since World War II.
Volkswagen AG, Europe�s biggest carmaker, said sales dropped 21 percent in January from a year earlier, while deliveries at Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world leader in luxury autos, fell 24 percent. MAN AG, Europe�s third-largest truckmaker, said it will cut costs further and extend reductions in employees� working hours after declining sales caused fourth-quarter profit to plunge by almost half.
The European Automobile Manufacturers Association is reporting European Truck Sales Plunged 35% in January as Slump Deepened.
European heavy-truck sales plunged 35 percent last month, more than double the drop in December, as the global recession ravaged the region�s main markets.Toyota Cuts January Vehicle Production by Most Since 1987
Manufacturers sold 20,068 trucks weighing 16 metric tons or more in January, compared with 30,755 a year earlier, the Brussels-based European Automobile Manufacturers Association said in a statement today.
Spain and the U.K. led the slump among larger western European markets, with declines of 76 percent and 40 percent respectively. The U.K. turned negative from a 13 percent increase in December. Germany, where business confidence hit a 26-year low this month, suffered a 28 percent January drop.
Truck sales have waned as the global financial crisis erodes demand for the transportation of goods, causing Daimler AG, Volvo AB and MAN AG, Europe�s top three manufacturers, to cut thousands of jobs. Sales plunged 58 percent in the 10 eastern countries that joined the European Union in 2004, with Poland, the biggest, suffering a 76 percent decline.
Purchases of vans weighing less than 3.5 tons tumbled 37 percent in January to 114,664, while demand for vehicles exceeding 3.5 tons, including heavy trucks, fell 33 percent to 27,336, according to the ACEA. Registrations of new buses and coaches declined 16 percent.
When demand drops, output follows. Toyota Cuts January Vehicle Production by Most Since 1987
Toyota Motor Corp., Japan�s biggest automaker, slashed global production last month by the most in more than two decades as the recession and a credit crunch decimate demand for new automobiles.Without jobs there is little reason to believe this economy is close to turning around. Yet, stimulus plan or not, there is simply no reason for jobs to pick up any time soon. I expect another half million jobs will be lost in each of the next couple months.
Toyota�s output fell 43 percent to 413,285 vehicles in January. Honda Motor Co.�s production dropped 33 percent to 226,551 vehicles and Nissan Motor Co.�s slid 54 percent to 145,286 units, the companies said separately today.
Japanese carmakers are cutting output and earnings forecasts as slowing economies and rising unemployment in their largest markets deter consumers from buying new vehicles. Toyota�s domestic output is being reduced by half this quarter, compared with a year earlier, as exports plunge and it heads for its first operating loss in 71 years.
�Things will get worse before they get better.� said Ed Rogers, chief executive officer of Tokyo-based hedge fund adviser Rogers Investment Advisors Y.K. �Nobody is buying cars -- there is a global freeze of commerce.�
Honda�s global production decline in January was its biggest since at least 1999, as exports to the U.S. fell 62 percent in the period, the company said.
Nissan, which posted its biggest production decline since at least 1984 last month, estimates domestic output will tumble 16 percent to 1.06 million vehicles this fiscal year. Nissan last month said its U.S. plants will build vehicles only four days a week indefinitely.
The automaker�s total exports fell 62 percent last month, the most in at least 38 years. Exports to North America slid 85 percent.
Mazda Motor Corp., Japan�s second-largest car exporter, said global production fell 63 percent to 45,548 units in January.
Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd., the maker of Subaru-brand cars, said global production fell 32 percent to 31,654 vehicles in January. Suzuki Motor Corp., Japan�s second-largest minicar maker, said global production fell 20 percent to 177,085 units.
The key is consumer attitudes towards debt and spending have changed, and those attitudes are not changing back. Expect a long, deep recession no matter what Obama and Bernanke do.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Canon Digital Rebel XSi 12.2 MP Digital SLR Camera with EF-S 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 IS Lens (Black)
For photography with point-and-shoot ease, look no further than Canon's EOS Rebel XSi. The EOS Rebel XSi brings staggering technological innovation to the masses. It features Canon's EOS Integrated Cleaning System, Live View Function, a powerful DIGIC III Image Processor, and a 12.2-megapixel CMOS Sensor with Optical Image Stabilizer. The EOS Rebel XSi's refined, ergonomic design includes a 3.0"
Nikon D80 10.2MP Digital SLR Camera Kit with 18-135mm AF-S DX Zoom-Nikkor Lens
One of the key advances developed for the D80 is its high-resolution image-processing engine, a dedicated new high-performance processing chip that greatly accelerates performance. ISO AUTO mode automatically adjusts sensitivity between ISO 100 to 1600, maximizing available light to help achieve optimal exposure 7 automated Digital Vari-Programs (Auto, Portrait, Landscape, Close Up, Sports, Night
Pentax K20D 14.6MP Digital SLR Camera with Shake Reduction (Body Only)
The PENTAX K20D digital SLR offers advanced photo enthusiasts an array of exciting PENTAX innovations. The newly developed CMOS image sensor brings out optimum performance of PENTAX interchangeable lenses. Featuring 14.6 effective megapixels (highest in its class) and the latest noise-reduction technology, the sensor assures superb image quality. This SLR will make you feel in control with its
Sony Cyber-shot DSC-S950S camera - A Fashionable Camera
The Sony S950S is a compact and easy to use camera which is a perfect entry to the world of Cyber-shot. It is a smart option for those who need a digital point and shoot camera. The 10.1 effective megapixel resolution means to get finer details in the image and use its powerful 4x optical zoom without losing clarity. Featuring steady shot to reduce picture blur, the Sony Cyber-Shot DSCS950 comes with an array of advanced functions.
The Sony S950S is easy to use and small and light to carry anywhere. Featuring face detection to keep portraits in focus, the Sony S950S has high sensitivity sensor that enables great pictures in low light. Picture Motion Browser (PMB) software is pre-loaded in this cyber-shot to manage the large no of photos to a simplified collection. Finally shots can be reviewed on the large 2.7 LCD viewfinder.
Canon Rebel XS 10.1MP Digital SLR Camera with EF-S 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 IS Lens (Silver)
Ideal for a wide range of photographers from first-time digital SLR users to veteran photo enthusiasts, the new Canon EOS Rebel XS camera is designed to embody what you have come to expect from the EOS Rebel series - a fast, non-intimidating, lightweight, easy-to-use camera that produces excellent images and starts emerging photographers off on the right foot. Immediately, photographers will
Google Analytics Motion Charts Overview with a PPC Example
Most people look at click through rates, clicks or visits when analyzing their keywords. Some people will go a step further and look at the conversion rates. If you have a content site with no end conversion you might look at bounce rate to figure out what keywords are working or you might look at the page views/visit or look at some other form of engagement metrics. To look at all the data points you need to do full analysis, which requires you to look at a few reports and maybe use excel to pull all that data together in one view. Google Analytics Motion Charts make it really easy to visualize several data points in one screen.
In this post I will show:
Let�s get started
To access motion charts,
In the motion charts interface you can choose up to four dimensions that you can plot your data point against and see it in this graph. The four dimension areas are circled in the image below. Two dimensions can be plotted on the chart on X-axis and Y-axis, one using the color and the fourth using the size of the bubble that represents the data point.
For the dimensions on X-Axis and Y-Axis you have the option to plot the data either on �Linear� or �Log� scale. I chose linear in this case. (Note: You should choose log when your data points have too much variations in their values from one day to another. Using a linear scale will make it hard to draw them on one chart but log scale will make the chart much cleaner.)
You can select the dimensions by clicking on appropriate section (see below)
After you have selected your dimensions and chosen the scale (log or linear) you want, click on the data points (bubbles in the middle of the chart) to show the name of the data point. Also, those data points are will be tracked when the �Trails� option is enabled (discussed below).
Once all your selections are done you can check the �Trails� check box to track the progression of each data point on each of the dimensions you selected over the time period that you selected. Even though �Trails� is optional, I have found it to be an important feature to explore the full power of motion charts.
Note: if you select too many bubbles (keywords in this case) along with �Trails� then the motion charts become very crowded. You should limit selection to no more than 3 bubbles at a time.
In this case I chose two keywords, Keyword A and Keyword B since I wanted to see how they compare to each other on the dimensions that I chose. (Actual keywords are disguised for this example).
So why did I choose those two keywords? I actually chose a lot of keyword combinations. I was trying to find the keywords which I should buy on search engines to drive more traffic. Since the budget is limited (isn�t that the case everywhere?) I had to pick the keywords that will give us the biggest bang for our buck.
This site had two main site goals:
Based on these goals we needed to see following metrics:
Since both the keywords had about same conversion rate, it was not important for us to plot it on X and Y-axis and it was chosen to be represented by the bubble size. I plotted metrics 1 and 2 (see above) on Y-axis and X-axis respectively since I wanted to see how the traffic is driven and how many pages people view when they visit the site. Bounce Rate was chosen to show different colors.
In my option, any critical metrics should go on X-axis and Y-axis. You should play with plotting all different metrics on different axis, color and size to see which one provide you more meaningful view. Plotting them in different ways provide different views and ideas of additional metrics that you might want to look at.
After all the dimension selections were made, I checked the �Trails� option and hit the �Play� button to see the motion chart in action (You can also manually move the slider next to play button).
Here is the final Motion Chart:
Looking at this it is clear that Keyword A is driving more traffic but lower Pages/Visit than Keyword B. The bounce rate is also higher for keyword A. The conversion rate is about the same for both keywords.
It is clear that we should put more dollars behind Keyword B as it helps us achieve goal number 2 better than Keyword A. Goal 1 is about the same for both these keywords.
Hope this post was helpful in demystifying Google Analytics Motion Charts.
For any questions on Motion Charts and Google Analytics please visit Ask an Expert section on my site.
Comments? Questions?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking to fill your Web Analytics or Online Marketing position?Post your open jobs on http://www.web-analytics-jobs.com/
Sr/Lead Analytic Warehouse/Java Engineer at Saas Company In the SF Bay Area (Emeryville, CA)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site: AnilBatra.com
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/anilbatra
In this post I will show:
- Step-by-step overview of how motion charts work.
- An example of how I used Google Analytics motion charts to figure out which keyword to spend money on.
Note (I could have got similar information from a few reports in Google Analytics, but motions charts just made it easier and faster).
Let�s get started
To access motion charts,
- Click on your report (keywords report in this case).
- Select the date range that you want to analyze.
- Click on Visualize button on the top. This will bring the motion chart (see below).
In the motion charts interface you can choose up to four dimensions that you can plot your data point against and see it in this graph. The four dimension areas are circled in the image below. Two dimensions can be plotted on the chart on X-axis and Y-axis, one using the color and the fourth using the size of the bubble that represents the data point.
For the dimensions on X-Axis and Y-Axis you have the option to plot the data either on �Linear� or �Log� scale. I chose linear in this case. (Note: You should choose log when your data points have too much variations in their values from one day to another. Using a linear scale will make it hard to draw them on one chart but log scale will make the chart much cleaner.)
You can select the dimensions by clicking on appropriate section (see below)
After you have selected your dimensions and chosen the scale (log or linear) you want, click on the data points (bubbles in the middle of the chart) to show the name of the data point. Also, those data points are will be tracked when the �Trails� option is enabled (discussed below).
Once all your selections are done you can check the �Trails� check box to track the progression of each data point on each of the dimensions you selected over the time period that you selected. Even though �Trails� is optional, I have found it to be an important feature to explore the full power of motion charts.
Note: if you select too many bubbles (keywords in this case) along with �Trails� then the motion charts become very crowded. You should limit selection to no more than 3 bubbles at a time.
In this case I chose two keywords, Keyword A and Keyword B since I wanted to see how they compare to each other on the dimensions that I chose. (Actual keywords are disguised for this example).
So why did I choose those two keywords? I actually chose a lot of keyword combinations. I was trying to find the keywords which I should buy on search engines to drive more traffic. Since the budget is limited (isn�t that the case everywhere?) I had to pick the keywords that will give us the biggest bang for our buck.
This site had two main site goals:
- Convert visitors to registered members (Registration).
- Drive more page views/visit to increase the ad inventory and hence ad revenue.
Based on these goals we needed to see following metrics:
- Conversions driven by keywords
- Visits Driven by Keywords
- Page views/Visit
- Bounce Rate
Since both the keywords had about same conversion rate, it was not important for us to plot it on X and Y-axis and it was chosen to be represented by the bubble size. I plotted metrics 1 and 2 (see above) on Y-axis and X-axis respectively since I wanted to see how the traffic is driven and how many pages people view when they visit the site. Bounce Rate was chosen to show different colors.
In my option, any critical metrics should go on X-axis and Y-axis. You should play with plotting all different metrics on different axis, color and size to see which one provide you more meaningful view. Plotting them in different ways provide different views and ideas of additional metrics that you might want to look at.
After all the dimension selections were made, I checked the �Trails� option and hit the �Play� button to see the motion chart in action (You can also manually move the slider next to play button).
Here is the final Motion Chart:
Looking at this it is clear that Keyword A is driving more traffic but lower Pages/Visit than Keyword B. The bounce rate is also higher for keyword A. The conversion rate is about the same for both keywords.
It is clear that we should put more dollars behind Keyword B as it helps us achieve goal number 2 better than Keyword A. Goal 1 is about the same for both these keywords.
Hope this post was helpful in demystifying Google Analytics Motion Charts.
For any questions on Motion Charts and Google Analytics please visit Ask an Expert section on my site.
Comments? Questions?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking to fill your Web Analytics or Online Marketing position?Post your open jobs on http://www.web-analytics-jobs.com/
Sr/Lead Analytic Warehouse/Java Engineer at Saas Company In the SF Bay Area (Emeryville, CA)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site: AnilBatra.com
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/anilbatra
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
