Monday, June 30, 2008

Australia Home Lending At Lowest Level Since 1991

The worldwide housing bust continues to pick up steam. Down under, Home lending growth plunges to lowest level since 1991.
HOME lending growth has suffered its biggest decline since the 1991 recession while inflation continues to soar, confronting the Reserve Bank with the dilemma of a slowing economy and simultaneously rising prices as it meets today to set interest rates.

The slump in home loan growth led a general slowdown in credit, with increases in total borrowing at a three-year low and personal loans growing at their slowest pace in six years.

Soaring petrol prices and rising rents caused by a tight housing market are feeding inflationary expectations.

ABN Amro chief economist Kieran Davies said it was possible the Reserve Bank had come to the end of its interest rate rises. "The news on inflation hasn't been good, particularly with oil prices continuing to climb, but the credit figures show borrowing is responding to higher rates," Mr Davies said.

"It's not a clear-cut case for the Reserve Bank," he said. "The danger is that although growth appears to be slowing in the economy, people may well want to embody higher food and fuel prices in their wage claims. If that happens, you start to get into a wage-price spiral, which would be anathema to the (Reserve) bank.
Big Standoff

We all know how this is going to end, or at least we should, but a big Stand-off between Brisbane house buyers and sellers proves otherwise, at least for the moment.
SELLERS want up to 30 per cent more for their homes than buyers will pay, and the stand-off has caused falling sales volumes in southeast Queensland.

A stagnant market, fuelled by uncertain economic conditions has buyers hungry for bargains. But many sellers are still refusing to budge from their dream prices, in the face of offers tens and in some cases hundreds of thousands below what they are asking.

Johnston Dixon principal John Johnston said that in a usual market there was a disparity of between 10 per cent and 15 per cent from buyer to seller - a gap agents could often negotiate closer.

But he said the difference recently had blown out to 30 per cent. He said right across Brisbane there were instances of people wanting $800,000 for their homes, and buyers wanting to pay around $600,000.

RP Data research shows homes were selling at about 6.1 per cent below the asking price in April.

"There has been some movement in the level of discounting since April and I would estimate the average level of market discount in Brisbane now to be closer to 6.5 per cent to 7 per cent," Mr Lawless said.
The Pattern Repeats
  • It all starts with an attitude change.
  • The pool of greater fools dries up.
  • Sellers refuse to admit the market has turned.
  • Volume of sales plunges.
  • Home prices eventually follow.
  • Sellers chase last month's price all the way down.
  • Eventually the sellers get underwater.
  • Defaults and bankruptcies soar.


This process can go on for years, or even a decade. The process is 3 years old in the US now in many markets, with Florida acting as ground zero. In Japan, property prices fell for 18 consecutive years, rising last year for the first time in 19. History suggests those expecting prices in Oz to recover anytime soon are sadly mistaken.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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DXG Launches the DXG-567V HD Camcorder With Easy Upload to YouTube and Other Web Video Sites

DXG Launches the DXG-567V HD Camcorder With Easy Upload to YouTube and Other Web Video Sites

Priced at Only $179, the DXG-567V HD Is the "Everyman" HD Camcorder With All the Bells and Whistles at an Affordable Price

CITY OF INDUSTRY, CA--(Marketwire - June 26, 2008) - DXG USA (www.dxgusa.com), one of the fastest growing digital camera manufacturers in the U.S., today unveiled the new DXG-567V high-definition (HD) camcorder with direct uploading capabilities for sites such as YouTube�. The DXG-567V is not much bigger than an average mobile phone, is available now at retailers nationwide in 4 eye-popping colors including black, red, pink and sky blue, and is priced at just $179 (MSRP.)

The DXG-567V HD camcorder is perfect for anyone looking for a fun, pocket-sized, easy and reasonably priced way to capture high-quality video and quickly upload and post it online. The DXG-567V also ships with all of the required cables including S-video for connecting the camcorder directly to a TV as well as composite video and rechargeable AA batteries, making it the ultimate multi-function video camera for the entire family.

"Rapid Blog Manager" Software Offers Fast Video Upload

The DXG-567V camcorder comes with Rapid Blog Manager software, which allows users to upload and share videos on the Internet. Simply connect the DXG-567V's retractable USB connector to a computer to automatically launch its menu and instantly upload videos from the camera to YouTube, a blog or other Web video site.

Experience HD at an Affordable Price

With the DXG-567V, it's never been easier to capture and share high-definition video, up to 1280 x 720 at 30 frames-per-second (FPS). The camcorder's buttons are all within reach, eliminating complex menus and making it easier to record spontaneous moments in high-definition video. When back at home, consumers can easily connect the DXG-567V to any plasma or HDTV with the included cables to experience the videos they've shot in HD.

Out of the box, the DXG-567V includes the ArcSoft TotalMedia� Extreme software (a $99 retail value,) to create, edit and watch videos. The software features two unique applications that enhance the movie-watching experience with features and options right and a separate program that allows consumers to make amazing customized movies.

About DXG USA

DXG USA, The Digital Camera Company, is one of the fastest growing digital camera manufacturers in the U.S., providing intuitively designed digital cameras and camcorders for the youth and mainstream markets. Compact, fashionable and affordably priced, DXG digital cameras are setting trends for quality and utility. DXG USA is a fully owned subsidiary of DXG Technology Corp., one of the world's leading manufacturers and designers (OEM/ODM) of digital cameras and camcorders. DXG Technology has won numerous design and innovation awards and employs more than 4,000 people worldwide. Complete information on DXG USA can be found at www.dxgusa.com.

The names of companies mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners.

Casio EX-Z9

Casio EX-Z9

A few months ago, Casio introduced the EX-Z9, and I had a chance to try it out. The camera has 8.1 megapixels of image resolution, and has a 3x optical zoom.

I was amazed that it worked so easily from out of the box. I was ready to take pictures as soon as it was done charging on the included charging station. Easy is definitely the rule as the EX-Z9 was clearly designed with the consumer in mind.

One of the best features is the YouTube Capture mode, which allows videos to be recorded and then uploaded onto the famous video clip site in just three simple steps.

The 2.6 inch wide LCD allowed me to go through operations, and there was an alarming 23 Best Shot Modes, with categories such as Fireworks and Pets. In other words, the company figured out what people are photographing, and designed a camera around it.

Other features include the Anti Shake DSP to reduce photo blur, as well as the Easy Mode that can simplify the camera settings to three easy menus (image size, flash, and self timer). The Face Detection technology also makes it easier to take pictures than ever.

See what I meant earlier about the EX-Z9 being easy? Maybe they should have named it the EZ-X9. By the way, it was also easy to upload photos to the computer. All you need to do is plug it in and the computer recognized them like a thumb-drive.

If easy is what you want, than easy is as the EX-Z9 does. The Casio EX-Z9 is available now for $159.99, and comes in pink, black, silver, and orange.

Google Ad Planner

A lot of you might already know that Google announced the release of Google Ad Planner. This free media research and planner tool allows advertisers/agencies to find the Web sites that match their desired target audiences so that they can decide where to spend their advertising dollars.

This tool along with other tools such as Google Analytics Benchmarking, Google Trends for Websites positions Google well in competition with Nielsen , Quantcast, Hitwise and Compete.

I got my account to Google Ad Planner last week and I can tell you that I was impressed. Yes, there are a lot of features that are not there yet but nonetheless this tool is pretty powerful. Using this tool you can find smaller sites to advertise that you would normally not look at.

How does Google Ad Planner Work

  1. When you first enter the tool it show you how many total Unique Visitors and Pageviews that you can reach (that is total internet usage) if you advertised on the whole internet.

  2. Then you can choose specific country and/or language to narrow down your target audience.

  3. Next you can enter any demographic information to further narrow down your target audience. The demographics that are available are gender, age range, education and household income.

  4. Finally you can narrow or expand your target audience by particular sites. You have two options in this filter to choose from
    1. any site below
    2. all sites below

    Below is the description of this filter from Google Ad Planner Help.
    Choosing any site below means any internet user in the sample set who meets at least one of the criteria will be included in your audience.
    Choosing all sites below means internet users in the sample set must meet all of the criteria in order to be included in your audience.
    For example, if you specify 'Site A,' 'Site B,' and 'Site C' as sites your audience is likely to visit, then select the all sites below filter, only internet users in the sample set who visit all three sites will be included in your audience.
    If, however, you select the any site below filter, an internet user in the sample set who only visits Site A and Site C will still be included in your search results.


  5. Another filter option is to limit your audience to only those sites that are in Google Content Network and the ad sizes these publishers support. This option is very useful if you are limited to using Google Adwords for your media buys.



Apart from Media planning, this tool can be used to do competitive analysis. For example, it can show you what percentage of your users also go to your competitor�s site. It can show you what other sites your competitor�s visitors visit � Good for analysis and then planning your media buy. It can show you the demographic mix of your competitors visitors.

Like Google trends, Google Ad Planner needs to be integrated into Google Analytics. Microsoft Gatineau overlaid some of the demographic data into the web analytics reporting, Google just showed you that they have that data too, plus some more. So it is matter of time when this data will be available in Google Analytics.

Deflationary Hurricanes to Hit U.S. and U.K.

Congratulations (of sorts) go to the UK as British household debt is highest in history.
British households are now more indebted than those of any other major country in recorded history, it has emerged.

Families in the UK now owe a record 173pc of their incomes in debts, official figures have shown. The ratio of debt to income is higher than any other country in the Group of Seven leading industrialised economies, and is sharply higher than the 129pc of incomes it was five years ago.

Michael Saunders of Citigroup warned that - at 173pc of household incomes - the debt burden is higher even than Japan's when it peaked in 1990, before more than a decade of deflation. Philip Shaw of Investec said: "Although we take the view that the economy will avoid a recession, our confidence is ebbing."
Avoid A Recession?

It will be hard for the US and UK to avoid a depression.

What started as a tropical storm called "Subprime" has intensified in magnitude to engulf Alt-A, HELOCs, credit cards, commercial real estate, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, and the stock market, just as baby boomers are headed for retirement.

If you prefer, you can think of this as Many Hurricanes, Many Eyes.

Barclays Warns Of Financial Storm

Most do not even understand the nature of the storm that is about to hit. Barclays is right at the top of the list. Please consider Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles.
Barclays Capital has advised clients to batten down the hatches for a worldwide financial storm, warning that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall "below zero".

"We're in a nasty environment," said Tim Bond, the bank's chief equity strategist. "There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise mood and are retreating into our shell. Investors will do well if they can preserve their wealth."

Barclays Capital said in its closely-watched Global Outlook that US headline inflation would hit 5.5pc by August and the Fed will have to raise interest rates six times by the end of next year to prevent a wage-spiral. If it hesitates, the bond markets will take matters into their own hands. "This is the first test for central banks in 30 years and they have fluffed it. They have zero credibility, and the Fed is negative if that's possible. It has lost all credibility," said Mr Bond.
No Wage Price Spiral

Wage price spirals happen when corporations get into bidding wars over employees, not when they are shoving them out the door by the hundreds of thousands. Mr. Bond must be reporting from Bizarro World. The odds of a wage price spiral in the US are essentially zero as credit is drying up and overcapacity is everywhere you look. Massive Government and Private Sector Job Cuts Are Coming.

This is not Bizarro World, nor it is 1970.

If Barclays is betting on six interest rates hikes in the US with its own money it will likely get carted out in a coffin. Property values are crashing, unemployment is rising, wages are falling, global wage arbitrage is king, and most importantly Peak Credit Has Arrived.

It is impossible to get inflation out of that mix. Berananke could cut interest rates to zero tomorrow and it would not cause inflation, at least as properly defined: a net expansion of money and credit. Banks are strapped for cash. They cannot lend. Businesses do not want to borrow. There is overcapacity everywhere. The Shopping Center Economic Model Is History.

I struggle to see how anyone can get inflation out of that mix. Last Thursday when the stock markets were in a freefall, I asked Is The Inflation Scare Over Yet? Well, I guess it's not.

Fed Has Lost Credibility

However, I will grant Mr. Bond one thing. "The Fed has lost all credibility." I discussed that idea in Things That Have Not Yet Happened in response to Bernanke's absurd claim "Danger of downturn appears to have waned."

Bernanke made that statement on June 9th. On June 26, Bernanke was openly soliciting private equity firms to invest in banks. I discussed this in Fed Looking To Bend Rules To Aid Banks.

Crack-Up Boom In Asia

Actually, I see another statement from Mr. Bond that I agree with, and it is an important one: "Inflation is out of control in Asia. Vietnam has already blown up."

Inflation is indeed out of control in Asia, notably China, India, and Vietnam. That inflation stems from Asia central bankers printing local currency to buy US dollars, in an attempt to keep their export machines going.

Bernanke foolishly calls this a savings glut. Printing money to buy dollars does not constitute savings. It is amazing that a Fed governor does not understand this simple truth.

Besides, it is virtually impossible to have "too much savings". The construct does not even exist!

Peak oil, in conjunction with a crack up inflationary boom in China is masking deflation in the US and pending deflation in the UK. Those focused on rising energy and food prices are missing the boat.

However, I suspect China is going to slam on the brakes after the Olympics. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index sure acts as if something is coming down the pike.

$SSEC Weekly Chart



click on chart for sharper image

Who's In Control?

Ben Bernake at the Fed, Mervyn King at the Bank of England, and Jean-Claude Trichet at the ECB are not in control of what is about to happen. When it comes to commodity prices,peak oil and China's willingness to allow its economy to overheat are going to be the driving forces. Trichet can hike all he wants and it will not matter much to the price of oil. However, it may crush individual economies in the EU.

This does not mean hiking is wrong (although it likely is), it simply means that hiking to rein in gasoline and food prices, two rather inelastic needs, is beyond silly.

Implications of Peak Credit

When it comes to the collapse in credit, the above Central Banks are powerless to do a thing about it. This is to be expected now that we are on the backside of Peak Credit.

The saturation point has been reached. It took decades but we have finally arrived. None of the financial engineering jobs that fueled this credit boom will ever be needed again. SIVs, Conduits, Toggle Bonds, Covenant Lite loans are all dead for years, more likely decades to come. Add to that liar loans, Pay Option Arms, insane leverage, and numerous other ridiculous lending arrangements. And if those things are not coming back, we do not need Wall Street shills to securitize that garbage and pitch it to unsuspecting suckers.

In addition to financial engineering jobs, there was a boom in commercial real estate, home depots, remodeling companies, landscaping, furniture, appliances, plumbing, heating, air conditioning, restaurants, and even things like grass seed.

There is no source of jobs to replace what has been lost and what will be lost. Discretionary spending is dead. Boomers about to retire are about to get religion. Sadly, it's too late. Savings they thought they had in their house, have now vanished into thin air. It was all a mirage in the first place, but mountains of credit has been extended on the basis of that mirage. Trillions of dollars of imagined wealth has gone up in smoke. Trillions of dollars more are about to.

Deflation Has Set In

It is amusing that in the face of this carnage, many are still screaming inflation, stagflation, or even hyperinflation simply because food and energy prices are rising. Deflation is here and now in the US. Deflation is knocking on the door of the UK and Eurozone. And there is nothing that can be done about it.

Can The Fed Print Its Way Out?

Some will insist that I am wrong, that the Fed can print. Well the Fed can print, but the Fed cannot spend. In addition, the Fed cannot give money away, nor would the Fed even if it could. Finally, the Fed cannot force banks to lend or businesses or consumers to borrow.

Bank credit is contracting with the Fed Funds rate at 2%. Bank credit would not be going much of anywhere even at 0% in my estimation. The reason is simple: banks are insolvent!

The Fed is like the powerless man behind the curtain in the Wizard of Oz. Once peak credit sets in, all the Fed can do is bluff. The notion of a helicopter drop is pure nonsense.

What About A Crack-Up Boom?

We had a crack-up-boom. What else can you call the financial engineering that went with SIVs, Conduits, Toggle Bonds, Covenant Lite loans, Pay Option ARMs, etc., etc? That crack-up-boom is over. And just like every credit boom in history, the backside, once the credit boom ends is deflation. Previous examples include Tulip Mania, the South Sea Bubble, John Law Mississippi scheme, the Great Depression, and the property bust in Japan.

Weimar Germany was not a credit boom, but an example of hyperinflation caused by massive printing to pay for war reparations. Zimbabwe is another example of hyperinflation caused by printing.

What About Congress?

Congress, unlike the Fed, can indeed spend money it does not have. They have already done so with an ill-advised stimulus package. There will indeed be more stimulus packages just as there was in Japan. However, nothing can match the sheer number of jobs created in the housing and commercial real estate booms. And nothing can replace the destruction of wealth that is now taking place in housing and the equity markets.

Attitudes Lead The Way

It took nearly 80 years for people to get as reckless as they did in 1929. 80 years! Few are still alive that went through the great depression. That is the nature of the game. People have to forget what a depression is like to bring about the conditions that cause them. And they did. And they made the same mistakes over again, except larger.

The madness of crowds, however, can only go so far. A significant reversal is now underway. The secular peak in consumption has been reached. A reversal in attitudes towards consumption started with houses, but it�s spreading to cars, boats, and even Starbucks coffee. It will take a long time for attitudes to get back to equilibrium. And attitudes, like pendulums, will not stop at equilibrium once they get there.

The odds of a significant bout of inflation now are about the same as they were in 1929. Next to none. History is about to repeat.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Vacations....

Hello there...This is Mavilonus.
I'm going to NY for a few days....Vacations...

Please, stay tuned. I will return on July 12th.

Then, I will upload more and more news, reviews, pictures, rumors more news, etc...

Bye....See you!

Mavilonus

Vacations....

Hello there...This is Mavilonus.
I'm going to NY for a few days....Vacations...

Please, stay tuned. I will return on July 12th.

Then, I will upload more and more news, reviews, pictures, rumors more news, etc...

Bye....See you!

Mavilonus

How to Draw and Sketch Anime Manga or Comics: woman, girl with sword mercenary character video and step by step

Learn to Draw and Sketch Anime Manga or Comics: woman, girl with sword mercenary character design, girl sketch. This pose will help you construct, visualize and design many kind of different characters for comics, manga, anime, and illustration sketch. Learn from Step by step and video tutorial. Drawing and sketching step by step: female character design for manga, video game, and comics basic. The process shows from basic sketching to finish drawing quick concept for comics cartoon illustration, manga, anime. The video demonstrates and narrates how to quickly create an efficient concept design from concept idea into visual. How to put rough idea onto the paper sketch and create fantasy or sci-fi character concept art online lesson for comics cartoon illustration, manga, and anime.

Hello guys, it's been a little while...thanks for all the e-mails and kind words. Here is a new simple tutorial...enjoy

Here is a final image: Girl with Sword Mercenary

Here are Step by Step drawing and sketching Mercenary Woman

1)

2)

3)
4)


Watch the video process tutorial: Drawing Manga/ Comics, Female Mercenary with Sword.

Drawing Software & Tools I used and recommended:
-Genius MousePen 6x8
-Wacom Intuos3 6X8 Pen Tablet
-Bamboo (Small) Pen Tablet (new from Wacom!)
Economy for everyone.
Softwares:
-Gimp (Free Download)
-Adobe Photoshop CS2 (Professional software)
*You can just use pencil, paper, markers on this one...just practice rendering.

FEATURE TUTORIAL:

Face Constructed: How to draw faces
Archetypes Design Manga Characters Tutorial Download
Character Design Tutorial Download
Character Design Tutorial Download

New tutorials:
-How to draw Manga female soldier mercenary
-How to draw comics a Mongol Soldier
-Learn to draw Manga, anime: Assassin Girl with butcher knives
-How to draw Manga, Female Warlock
-Drawing and Sketching Undead Demon Army
-Draw and Paint environmental concept, Magma Fall
-Sketching Environmental Concept Green Field Mountains.
-Drawing Monkey King
-How to draw woman: rogue Samurai
-How to draw comics female Viking Warrior
-How to draw female faces
-Character Design Archetype, for Manga, Anime, Video Games
-How to draw Manga Female Body Figure

Thanks for all overwhelming support and e-mails guys!!! Due to the high volume of e-mails and questions, I apologized that I cannot usually reply to you within a day or two. I will try my best to answer them all personally and get all the questions answer either by Videos or Post.

** If you have any basic questions or specific please looked up Q/A section (under the blog menu on the right side). Most of the time your questions has already been answered in Q/A.

Have a GREAT DAY!

Lancerlink's DDV-1080HD HD camcorder lowers the bar

Lancerlink's DDV-1080HD HD camcorder lowers the bar



Watch out DXG, you've got a new rival in town, and it goes by the name Lancerlink. Just when we thought you had the cheap-o HD camcorder market all locked up, in comes this firm with a rather chintzy looking camcorder capable of logging clips at 1,440 x 1,080 (30fps) or 1,280 x 720 (60fps) in H.264 format. The 5-megapixel sensor can also snag stills, but considering that there's just 90MB of free memory within, you should probably keep an SD / MMC / SDHC card nearby. You'll also find a 3-inch LCD monitor, HDTV (component) output, USB connectivity and a rechargeable battery good for around four hours of use. The worst part, however, is the �49,800 ($474) price tag that's attached to the July-bound DDV-1080HD, which makes it a few hundies more than most of DXG's awfully similar collection.

(Via Engadget.)

Lancerlink's DDV-1080HD HD camcorder lowers the bar

Lancerlink's DDV-1080HD HD camcorder lowers the bar



Watch out DXG, you've got a new rival in town, and it goes by the name Lancerlink. Just when we thought you had the cheap-o HD camcorder market all locked up, in comes this firm with a rather chintzy looking camcorder capable of logging clips at 1,440 x 1,080 (30fps) or 1,280 x 720 (60fps) in H.264 format. The 5-megapixel sensor can also snag stills, but considering that there's just 90MB of free memory within, you should probably keep an SD / MMC / SDHC card nearby. You'll also find a 3-inch LCD monitor, HDTV (component) output, USB connectivity and a rechargeable battery good for around four hours of use. The worst part, however, is the �49,800 ($474) price tag that's attached to the July-bound DDV-1080HD, which makes it a few hundies more than most of DXG's awfully similar collection.

(Via Engadget.)

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Shiller's Keynesian Claptrap

The proposed solutions to the current economic crisis are getting more and more absurd. With that in mind, I am going to be blunt.

Robert J. Shiller's article One Rebate Isn�t Enough is the most ridiculous proposal from an economist I have seen for a long time. And that's saying a lot.

Shiller proposal is based on totally discredited logic developed by John Maynard Keynes, that to fix the economy "we should be putting in place another stimulus package like the current one, and stand ready for another after that, and another."

It would be impossible to be more wrong. We are in this mess because consumers and the government were both spending more money than they have, year in and year out, racking up debts well beyond their ability to finance them. Financing our consumption boom fell on the backs of foreigners. In turn the dollar has been collapsing, sending the price of oil skyrocketing, further adding to consumer woes.

Rather than admit the complete asininity of this arrangement, Shiller proposes we should be ready for three more rounds of it.
  • Nowhere does he address the consequences of the dollar were such a policy to be followed.
  • Nowhere does he address what would happen to interest rates and housing were the Fed to pursue such actions.
  • Nowhere does he bother to consider that the problem was reckless spending so the solution cannot possibly be more reckless spending.
The pool of real savings has been exhausted. It cannot be replenished by spending more. That is a simple statement of fact.

The bust we are in is the price we pay for past foolishness at the personal level, the state level, the corporate level, and the federal level. There is no magic cure, and we desperately need top economists to admit it.

Instead, Shiller is proposing the solution for debt is to go deeper in debt. If printing money was the answer to problems, Zimbabwe would be the most prosperous country in the world.

If one wonders why we are in the mess we are in, one need only look at the economic policies of Greenspan and Bernanke, based largely on failed Keynesian economic models just like the one Shiller is proposing.

Such proposals all depend on the ability of the Fed to perpetually blow bigger and bigger bubbles, each making the problem worse. Eventually the point of Peak Credit is reached where it is impossible to cram more "stimulus" down the throats of businesses, banks, and consumers.

Robert J. Shiller, professor of economics and finance at Yale and co-founder and chief economist of MacroMarkets LLC, would be advised to take another look at Tulip Mania, the South Seas Bubble, the John Law Mississippi Bubble, the Florida Real Estate Craze, and the Great Depression. And if those are too distant, how about a look at the housing bubble that was blown in the wake of the dotcom crash?

Close examination will show the idea of throwing money at collapsing bubbles is precisely the worst thing to do.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Monday, Monday

My weekly page update:
image03sm.jpg
Bikuben Student Residence in Copenhagen, Denmark by aart a/s.

Pro Domo by Yona Friedman.

Some unrelated links for your enjoyment:
One-Way Street
A blog "concerned with the political content of the aesthetic and representations of the political in the media." (added to sidebar under blogs::urban)

Design Spot
"A place dedicated to design, news in technology, technics and materials, which lead architecture and design to a better future." (added to sidebar under blogs::design+technology)

The Center: AIANY Blog
New blog of the New York Chapter of AIA. (added to sidebar under blogs::architecture)

kontakt magazine
"Modern living, forward thinking." (added to sidebar under architectural links::publications)

Fire Sales Of Bank Assets Coming Up

CNNMoney is reporting Credit Card Issuers Face Bigger Losses Than Expected.
"The deterioration in credit cards is accelerating faster than many had expected," said Christopher Wolfe, an analyst at Fitch and one of the authors of the report published Friday. "The message we are trying to deliver is that things are going to get worse before they get better. Thus far, credit card businesses have been profitable but that could change."

Fitch analysts are expecting an increase in prime charge-off rates - or losses from defaults on card payments as a percentage of loans outstanding - to at least 7% by the end of the year from 6.4% in May.

Particularly vulnerable, say analysts, are credit card issuers such as Washington Mutual, or WaMu, and Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) with higher subprime exposure, a category of high-risk borrowers with high delinquency who fueled the mortgage crisis.

WaMu, which bought a subprime credit card issuer in 2005, reported in the first-quarter net charge-offs of 9.32% on $26 billion of credit card loans. This is up from 6.31% a year earlier. It ratcheted up its loss reserves in its credit card unit by more than 60%. A WaMu spokesman declined to comment, citing the so- called quiet period ahead of earnings.

Credit card issuers that are part of bigger banking institutions such as Citi aren't in the clear either. The financial services behemoth had net losses of 5.83% in its U.S. cards portfolio in the first quarter, a 1.2% rise from a year earlier. "While current losses remain below peak levels, they are running above the long-term average," said Fitch analysts in their report. A Citi spokesman declined to comment on upcoming second-quarter results.
Suitors Drop Out Of Auction For GE Card Unit

Suitors are dropping out of auction for GE's $30 billion credit card unit. Had GE tried to sell that card unit 2 years ago there would have been 10 banks chomping at the bit to pick up that portfolio. Now, no one wants it.

It was growth at any cost for as long as I can remember. How quickly things change.

Growth at any cost was one of the ramifications of the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005. For more, please see Bankruptcy Reform Act Finally Blows Sky High. Now capital impaired banks cannot afford any more losses, yet card losses are mounting and about to get much worse.

With Massive Government and Private Sector Job Cuts Coming, unemployment is set to soar. Rising unemployment means rising card defaults. It is that simple.

WaMu In Deep Serial Trouble

While some have chanted these banks are selling below breakup value, I disagree. What is the value of a card portfolio that no one will bid on? Take a look at WaMu. It is in deep serial trouble. WaMu is sitting on a massively troubled pay option ARM portfolio and a huge subprime card portfolio.

Both of those pieces have negative value. WaMu would have to pay to get rid of them.

Where's The Breakup Value In Citigroup?

I have repeatedly said that Citigroup would not survive in its current form. It will be broken up. But how much is its card unit worth today in a fire sale if it has to get rid of it? How much is any of its units worth in a fire sale?

Sooner or later we will have our answer. Fire sales will be coming up.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Half Dose #48: Small Projects

The web page and office of Malaysian architect Kevin Mark Low goes by the name Small Projects, both an accurate description of his work and a sort of design philosophy where nothing is too small to be designed. Browsing the numerous small projects on Low's site -- projects that range from a mailbox to an office building -- one is impressed by the consistency of the quality and the aesthetic, a Modern one that is minimal and finely crafted. Below are five projects that illustrate these and other qualities.

HD48a.jpg
[dishrack | image source]
This stainless steel and wood dishrack is suspended over the kitchen sink, a common sense strategy that drips water directly into the sink, but one that is all too often eschewed in favor of inefficient countertop or in-sink types. The stainless steel is used to hang the rack, while wood is used for the rails, chosen so no damage is done to the plates and other tableware.

HD48b.jpg
[pittsburgh desk | image source]
This multi-tasking worktop for an architecture office creates a sizable plenum between the low and high table tops for storage of drawings and other materials. The name refers to the steel produced in Pittsburgh last century, something Low seems to embrace in a lot of his small projects. Admirably,the corners exhibit the way the piece was made, rather than providing an even finish that would otherwise cover up the process.

HD48c.jpg
[folded stair | image source]
Like many of the smallest of Low's small projects tend to be parts of larger commissions, typically houses; the folded stair is part of the aviary house, a rowhouse renovation. The perforated steel stair brings light to the space below the stair, all the while appearing to float between the brick walls. Steel pins anchored into the walls support the folded stair, an almost invisible detail that belies the structural integrity of the stair's construction.

HD48d.jpg
[gardengate | image source]
Likewise, the gardengate is part of another larger project, the loftoffice. A black steel mesh cage, functioning like a trapdoor, is suspended above cantilevered concrete steps leading to the garden below. What at first glance appears to be a frivolous design element, the trapdoor works in tandem with a pivoted security door above, and, when open, the trapdoor acts as a guardrail of sorts for those ascending or descending the otherwise open steps.

HD48e.jpg
[louvrebox house | image source]
Lastly is one of Low's houses, the appropriately named louvrebox. Sited on a small, narrow lot the house illustrates the architect's responses to site, something that extends to even the kitchen sink (above) but is most clear in the residential projects where the Malaysian climate must be contended with. This 3-story house includes two floors wrapped in aluminum louvers that "strike [a] balance between view out and privacy in and blocking the heat of the afternoon sun." In the humid climate of Malaysia, overhangs are rampant, and the porosity of inside and outside is controllable to take advantage of breezes.

Links:
:: Kevin Mark Low - Small Projects
:: Five Foot Way Magazine, Interview with Kevin Mark Low

Four Dozen Georgia Banks On Problem List

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is reporting Real estate market threatening Georgia banks.
Georgia's banks top the nation in terms of concentration of loans to real estate developers and builders. Figures are for the mean construction and development loans as a percentage of banks' core capital as of March 2008, the latest numbers available.

1. Georgia 178%
2. Washington 169%
3. Arizona 168%
4. North Carolina 165%
5. Idaho 158%
6. South Carolina 142%
7. Oregon 141%
8. Florida 130%
9. Nevada 110%
10. Virginia 101%
Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Nearly $1 out of every $5 on Georgia banks' loan books bankrolled homebuilders and real estate developers � by far the highest proportion in the state in at least 30 years, according to federal regulators' data.

That is putting several banks in the state � and perhaps significantly more if economic conditions deteriorate � at greater risk of failing or being pushed into takeovers by healthier banks, some people in the industry say.

"In Atlanta, this is the worst market we've had, ever," said Walt Moeling, a lawyer with Atlanta firm Powell Goldstein who has been representing local banking firms since 1968. "Everything went splat."

Christopher Marinac, a banking analyst with Atlanta-based FIG Partners, said it's too soon to tell when the industry will hit bottom or how long recovery will take."I think there are going to be a lot of shotgun weddings [to rescue banks] that you're never going to read about," he said.

Another misery measure: Industry insiders say there are now almost four dozen banks on Georgia's watch list for problem banks. Braswell, Georgia's banking commissioner, said the figure is in the "right ballpark," and has been rising.

Still, he and other industry veterans say that while metro Atlanta has become a hot spot for problem banks, they do not expect the wholesale bank failures that swept through Texas and several other states during the savings-and-loan debacle. They say the number of problem banks today pales in comparison, partly because banks are better-capitalized.

During that earlier era, about 200 banks and thrifts were failing across the nation each year, said Mark Schmidt, head of bank supervision at the FDIC's regional office in Atlanta. Nationwide, only four banks have failed this year, and only seven since 2005.

"It doesn't feel to me that it's going to be the same," said Schmidt, who was at the FDIC during the earlier crisis. "It's not national." Within the seven Southeastern states where his office supervises 1,100 banks and thrifts, most problem banks are in Georgia and Florida.

The FDIC currently has 90 banks on its national watch list (which uses narrower criteria than Georgia's) and it will get longer. "The trend is obvious," said Schmidt.

But Schmidt doesn't expect it to come close to matching those earlier days, when 1,500 banks were on the watch list at times.
Not A National Crisis?

I think he means ... Yet. Didn't we just go through the same nonsense with housing? Nearly every state in the union had to be in housing decline before the NAR and the NAHB admitted the housing problem was national.

But yes, we will not see 1500 banks on the problem list, for the simple reason there are far fewer banks today. Please see S&L Crisis vs. Current Crisis for a valid comparison between what's happening today vs. the 1980's.

All things considered, the situation today is far worse. Fewer banks will fail, but those that do will be way larger on average.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Promising Solar Power Technologies

New cost effective solar energy products are on the near horizon. Let's take a look at some of the promising ones.

MIT reports prototype solar dish passes first tests.
A team led by MIT students this week successfully tested a prototype of what may be the most cost-efficient solar power system in the world--one team members believe has the potential to revolutionize global energy production.

The system consists of a 12-foot-wide mirrored dish that team members have spent the last several weeks assembling. The dish, made from a lightweight frame of thin, inexpensive aluminum tubing and strips of mirror, concentrates sunlight by a factor of 1,000--creating heat so intense it could melt a bar of steel.

MIT Sloan School of Management lecturer David Pelly, in whose class this project first took shape last fall, says that, "I've looked for years at a variety of solar approaches, and this is the cheapest I've seen. And the key thing in scaling it globally is that all of the materials are inexpensive and accessible anywhere in the world."

Pelly adds that "I've looked all over for solar technology that could scale without subsidies. Almost nothing I've looked at has that potential. This does."
Raw Solar

The website Raw-Solar has this diagram explaining the practical application.
A solar thermal dish reflects the rays of the sun onto a small receiver using specially curved mirrors, concentrating the sunlight 1000 times. The high concentration increases the efficiency of the energy collection by reducing the surface area for thermal losses. A robust tracking system keeps the dish pointed directly at the sun all day, maximizing the available sunlight.

Water is pumped through the receiver where the high intensity sunlight heats it to 212-750F (100-400C), making steam. The steam can then be piped into an existing steam system, such as a district energy system or food processing plant.
What makes this system special vs. its competition is that it can use small flat flexible mirrors that can bend in exactly the right shape to concentrate the reflected sunlight on a precise spot. The materials are all easily produced and the team could put this dish together by hand.

Inquiring minds will want to consider this MIT video demonstration of their solar power dish.
Following is a photographic clip from the demonstration. In the clip below a wooden beam was held where the rays were being concentrated and it immediately caught fire.



Hot Thin Roofs

Let's now turn our attention to Hot Thin Roofs.
A new solar energy product, thin enough to be built into shingles, may finally make the technology competitive.

With energy prices soaring, affordable solar power would be welcomed by any entrepreneur looking to trim the electric bill. Trouble is, power generated by the most widely available technology - panels covered with photovoltaic (PV) systems, which translate sunlight into AC current - still costs two to three times more than electricity generated from coal and other fossil fuels. That may be about to change.

Several startups, including HelioVolt in Austin, Miasol� in Santa Clara, Calif., and Nanosolar in Palo Alto, are working on a new technology called flexible thin film that's on the brink of making solar more competitive. Nanosolar has just begun to ship its thin-film solar systems to a German utility.

Made from pliant sheets of foil, the solar panels can be molded onto roof shingles, which are at once more attractive than clunky, heavy glass panels and less expensive to produce. In fact, the cost of making thin film is so much lower than traditional solar panels that experts say it could produce electricity for about the national average of 10.4 cents a kilowatt hour.
Selling Green

CNN Money is reporting on Selling Green - Making Solar Pay.
Solar energy may be hot these days, but it still costs two or three times more than the power your local utility provides. SunEdison, a Beltsville, Md., startup, has created a new financing model that allows solar to make financial sense for businesses.

The roof of Sea Gull Lighting Products' distribution center in Burlington Township, N.J., is covered with solar panels that the lighting maker did not pay a cent for. They are installed, operated, and maintained by SunEdison. The company acts as a bank, soliciting investors interested in a return on solar energy. SunEdison's investors own the solar panels, and Sea Gull agrees to buy the power.
The problem with the model above is that it requires subsidies to be cost effective. The winning products in this space will need no subsidies.

Algae Power

Another in the series of innovative technologies in the CNN Money report is on Algae Power.
Isaac Berzin, who founded GreenFuel Technologies in 2001, is working with Arizona Public Service to scale his process to commercial levels. He has built a small algae farm next to one of the utility's natural-gas plants. The algae, which grow in racks of plastic bags, feed on the carbon dioxide in the exhaust of the power plant. The system not only reduces the greenhouse gases coming from the power plant by 40% but can also produce biodiesel and animal feedstock as a byproduct without competing with the global food supply.
I find these products exciting and at least two of them seem commercially viable. All of them might be. And the higher oil prices get, the more economically viable some of these and other products become.

Raw-Solar's beauty is a simple design using basic components, without the high cost of custom designed parabolic mirrors. There are plenty of desert areas in the US with huge percentages of cloudless days where such a system could be commercially viable.

Interestingly, the Bush administration halts solar energy projects on federal lands.

The Bush administration has put a two-year stop to solar energy projects on federal lands in Arizona and other Western states while it studies their environmental impact.

The U.S. Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Department of Energy will study the impact of solar energy production and other facilities that could be developed on public lands in Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, California, Colorado and Nevada.

There are 125 applications by solar energy companies to build facilities on public lands in those states.

The final analysis will show that the cure for peak oil is high enough energy prices.

Instead, the government sponsored solution was ethanol from corn. That "solution" was a complete disaster. US biofuel plants are going bankrupt as fuel prices rise at the pump and grain and fertilizer costs soar. Producing ethanol from corn makes no sense. To make matters worse, ethanol producers receive a taxpayer subsidy. And finally, tariffs make importing ethanol 3 times as expensive as it should be.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Saturday, June 28, 2008

Olympus E-520 Review

With the E-520, Olympus has added a broad array of enhancements to what was already a feature-packed camera. So on top of a DSLR which offered built-in stabilisation, live view and effective anti-dust, you now also get faster continuous shooting, a slightly bigger screen, contrast-based AF with face detection, a new IS mode, improved dynamic range and live previews of several adjustments. A surprise bonus is also the optional underwater housing.

So a DSLR which was already good has just got better, but Olympus hasn�t actually addressed any of the bigger concerns which faced the earlier E-510. The viewfinder remains smaller than most DSLRs and the main AF remains a fairly basic 3-point system. It�s also revealing while companies like Canon have boosted the resolution of models like the EOS 450D / XSi, Olympus has remained static on the Megapixel front. To be fair, 10 Megapixels is sufficient for most of us, but it does beg the question whether we�re at the acceptable quality limit offered by the Four Thirds sensor size. Certainly we found there�s already less latitude for retrieving blown highlight detail than some rival models.

So with the core specifications remaining essentially the same as its predecessor, there�s no compelling reason for E-510 owners to upgrade. Existing owners with money to spend should either consider the significant upgrade to the flagship E-3, or investing in additional lenses, such as the excellent Zuiko Digital 12-60mm or the 25mm pancake.

If you�re shopping for your first DSLR though or upgrading from an older model, the E-520 makes a great choice. It may not feature 12 or 14 Megapixels, but still records a decent degree of detail and as our outdoor comparisons illustrate, you�d be hard pushed telling much difference between it and the Canon 450D / XSi.

more : cameralabs

Olympus E-520 Review

With the E-520, Olympus has added a broad array of enhancements to what was already a feature-packed camera. So on top of a DSLR which offered built-in stabilisation, live view and effective anti-dust, you now also get faster continuous shooting, a slightly bigger screen, contrast-based AF with face detection, a new IS mode, improved dynamic range and live previews of several adjustments. A surprise bonus is also the optional underwater housing.

So a DSLR which was already good has just got better, but Olympus hasn�t actually addressed any of the bigger concerns which faced the earlier E-510. The viewfinder remains smaller than most DSLRs and the main AF remains a fairly basic 3-point system. It�s also revealing while companies like Canon have boosted the resolution of models like the EOS 450D / XSi, Olympus has remained static on the Megapixel front. To be fair, 10 Megapixels is sufficient for most of us, but it does beg the question whether we�re at the acceptable quality limit offered by the Four Thirds sensor size. Certainly we found there�s already less latitude for retrieving blown highlight detail than some rival models.

So with the core specifications remaining essentially the same as its predecessor, there�s no compelling reason for E-510 owners to upgrade. Existing owners with money to spend should either consider the significant upgrade to the flagship E-3, or investing in additional lenses, such as the excellent Zuiko Digital 12-60mm or the 25mm pancake.

If you�re shopping for your first DSLR though or upgrading from an older model, the E-520 makes a great choice. It may not feature 12 or 14 Megapixels, but still records a decent degree of detail and as our outdoor comparisons illustrate, you�d be hard pushed telling much difference between it and the Canon 450D / XSi.

more : cameralabs

Canon EOS Rebel XSi Review

The Canon EOS Rebel XSi is a very good entry-level digital SLR. It offers very good photo quality (with the appropriate tweaks), lighting fast performance, live view, and a large LCD display. The camera has its share of flaws, though, including soft JPEGs at default settings, redeye, sluggish contrast detect autofocus, and a rather high price. Still, the Rebel XSi is a solid choice for those looking for their first SLR, and thus, it earns my recommendation.

The Rebel XSi is a fairly compact digital SLR. While it has a metal frame on the inside, the plastic outer shell always felt a bit cheap to me. Like its predecessors, the XSi has a very small grip for your right hand. Despite the addition of a more "sticky" rubber material to the grip, I still don't find it comfortable. Bottom line: try before you buy. The Rebel supports EF and EF-S lenses (with a 1.6X focal length conversion ratio), and the new 18 - 55 IS kit lens is a nice improvement over previous models. The XSi retains the same dust reduction system as its predecessor.

The biggest additions to the Rebel XSi are its 3-inch LCD and live view system. The LCD is large, sharp, and fairly easy-to-see outdoors. Canon's live view system is one of the better ones out there, though it's far from perfect. You can compose photos on the LCD with autofocus, a composition grid, and a live histogram. The view is bright and sharp, even in low light situations, and you can enlarge the view to verify proper focus. There are actually two autofocus modes to choose from in live view, though one is much better than the other. The first one relies on the camera's AF sensor to do the dirty work, though this requires the camera to flip the mirror down for a second. The other method uses contrast detect AF, just like your compact camera. Unfortunately, it's very slow, with focus times of two seconds or more. Strangely enough, live view is unavailable in the automatic and scene modes, which may be a hint as to how useful it is for everyday point-and-shoot users. For those of you shooting with the optical viewfinder, you'll be pleased to hear that its considerably larger than it was on the Rebel XTi.

Jeff Keller

more : dcresource

Canon EOS Rebel XSi Review

The Canon EOS Rebel XSi is a very good entry-level digital SLR. It offers very good photo quality (with the appropriate tweaks), lighting fast performance, live view, and a large LCD display. The camera has its share of flaws, though, including soft JPEGs at default settings, redeye, sluggish contrast detect autofocus, and a rather high price. Still, the Rebel XSi is a solid choice for those looking for their first SLR, and thus, it earns my recommendation.

The Rebel XSi is a fairly compact digital SLR. While it has a metal frame on the inside, the plastic outer shell always felt a bit cheap to me. Like its predecessors, the XSi has a very small grip for your right hand. Despite the addition of a more "sticky" rubber material to the grip, I still don't find it comfortable. Bottom line: try before you buy. The Rebel supports EF and EF-S lenses (with a 1.6X focal length conversion ratio), and the new 18 - 55 IS kit lens is a nice improvement over previous models. The XSi retains the same dust reduction system as its predecessor.

The biggest additions to the Rebel XSi are its 3-inch LCD and live view system. The LCD is large, sharp, and fairly easy-to-see outdoors. Canon's live view system is one of the better ones out there, though it's far from perfect. You can compose photos on the LCD with autofocus, a composition grid, and a live histogram. The view is bright and sharp, even in low light situations, and you can enlarge the view to verify proper focus. There are actually two autofocus modes to choose from in live view, though one is much better than the other. The first one relies on the camera's AF sensor to do the dirty work, though this requires the camera to flip the mirror down for a second. The other method uses contrast detect AF, just like your compact camera. Unfortunately, it's very slow, with focus times of two seconds or more. Strangely enough, live view is unavailable in the automatic and scene modes, which may be a hint as to how useful it is for everyday point-and-shoot users. For those of you shooting with the optical viewfinder, you'll be pleased to hear that its considerably larger than it was on the Rebel XTi.

Jeff Keller

more : dcresource

Book Review: Transmaterial 2

Transmaterial 2: A Catalog of Materials that Redefine our Physical Environment (2008) by Blaine Brownell
Princeton Architectural Press
Paperback, 512 pages

book-transmaterial2.jpg

Two years ago we were introduced to a catalog of materials illustrating the innovations in materials research and design. This second installment of Blaine Brownell's Transmaterial continues where the first left off, documenting about 200 more innovative materials for various architectural and other design applications. This time the emphasis is on environmentalism over technology, something observed as a general trend by Brownell, not forced by the selection of the materials and products. If anything, this emphasis is apparent but not pervasive, as if those developing and creating materials can only respond to today's "green movement" via the use of recycled materials. Naturally, more must be considered (such as energy, transport and offput, not to mention the need for such-and-such material or product to begin with) for environmental concerns to really be at the center of attention. Future volumes will illustrate if that does occur.

Other than this apparent shift in focus from technology being able to create innovative materials to technology being able to create sustainable materials, the differences between the first and second volume of Transmaterials are slight: the layouts of each book are identical, with color (blue for 1, green for 2) making a distinction between the two; the ten categories for materials are the same, and the single pages devoted to each material have the same format and the same information. This consistency is understandable, making the book's definition as a catalog that much stronger, but also giving each material equal standing; Material A is not any better than Material B, but the fact each made it into the catalog does create a sense of hierarchy with those that didn't make it.

But this consistency also reinforces some of the weak points of the book series, most notably the lack of cross references for the various materials. A list of materials and the requisite description and information on material content, application, environmental benefits, contact information, and so forth is helpful, as are the multiple indexes, but these are not as helpful as being able to connect the various materials in some way, be it by the information included or other traits. Flipping through a book with only ten categories as the main means of discovery is a bit imperfect. Of course, if cross-referencing to aid architects and designers were instituted, it would only work for a single volume (lest each previous volume be republished every time the subsequent one hits the streets), which points to the main critique of the book (one I had with the first volume): Is the book format the best for the illustration of material innovation? While Princeton Architectural Press extends the scope of Transmaterial with its Materials Monthly series -- making the materials real, tactile -- the rapid advancements in materials research and design begs for something, well, digital. Brownell's blog and its tags do a bit of cross referencing, a good start, but not enough. If PAPress can supplement its two materials compilations with something that pulls everything together into the reference for architects on the subject remains to be seen, but for these pages are great inspiration, especially for those striving to balance innovation and sustainability.

or

Massive Government and Private Sector Job Cuts Coming

CNN Money is reporting State, city layoffs: 45,000 and counting.
With falling revenue from sales and income taxes, and property-tax declines looming, states, cities and towns have already laid off tens of thousands of government employees. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, a public employees union, says about 45,000 government layoffs have been announced this year.

There are 29 states, including California, Florida and Ohio, facing a combined budget shortfall of at least $48 billion in the fiscal year that starts July 1, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), a liberal think tank.

There are nearly 20 million state and local government employees in the country. So a 1% decline in employment at cities, towns, schools and states would result in a job loss of almost 200,000 people, a much larger amount than we've seen from battered sectors such as automakers or home builders in the past two years.
The effect of those layoffs will far outweigh any benefit of the economic stimulus package, much of which was already spent. We must use the word benefit loosely because government giving away money it does not have never produces any economic benefit.

Bank of America To Cut 7,500

MarketWatch is reporting Bank of America sees 7,500 job cuts after Countrywide close.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) said Thursday it expects to make about 7,500 job cuts after acquiring Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC) . Affected employees will start finding out their fate in the third quarter. "
Citigroup to cut 6,500

The TimesOnline is reporting Citigroup and Goldman Sachs cut more staff.
Citigroup, America�s largest bank, is expected to cut up to 6,500 investment banking jobs � as much as 10 per cent of its roughly 65,000 headcount worldwide. It is believed that entire trading desks in New York, London and other cities will be eliminated. Senior managing directors will not be immune from the layoffs.

In April, Citigroup said that 9,000 jobs would go on top of the 21,000 eliminated in the past year. [This is yet another 6,500 - Mish]
175,000 Financial Cuts Coming

Bloomberg is reporting Financial Firms May Make Deeper Cuts, Eliminate 175,000 Jobs.
The world's biggest financial firms may lose as many as 175,000 jobs by this time next year as Citigroup Inc. and other banks shed workers amid slowing revenue and billions in writedowns, executive recruiters say.

"The worst is yet to come," Russ Gerson, head of New York- based recruiting firm Gerson Group, said yesterday in an interview. "We are going to have a major contraction. This is affecting all areas of the investment banking universe and it's affecting all areas globally."

New York-based Bear Stearns Cos. is cutting more than 9,000 jobs, or 66 percent of its workforce, as it was acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co. Zurich-based UBS AG has announced 7,000 job cuts, and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. has trimmed 6,300 employees.

The Independent Budget Office in Manhattan said in a report issued last month that it expects 33,300 finance jobs in the city, or 7.1 percent of the total, to be cut from the peak in 2007. The industry lost 52,500 jobs in New York during the 2000- to-2003 market drop.

About 17 percent of banking and securities jobs in New York were wiped out from 2000 to 2003, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The current round of cuts may claim 35 percent to 40 percent of the industry, said Gary Goldstein, chairman of New York-based financial recruitment firm Whitney Group.

"They just keep chopping heads," Goldstein said. "They'll wake up one day and realize that they've cut too deep and now these businesses have come back and they don't have anybody to do them."
Goldstein Needs To Wake Up

This is the backside of Peak Credit.

None of the financial engineering jobs that fueled this credit boom will ever be needed again. SIVs, Conduits, Toggle Bonds, Covenant Lite loans are all dead for years, more likely decades to come. Add to that liar loans, Pay Option Arms, insane leverage, and numerous other ridiculous lending arrangements. And if those things are not coming back, we do not need Wall Street shills to securitize that garbage and pitch it to unsuspecting suckers.

More Mergers Coming Up

There are undoubtedly more bank mergers coming up. The strong swallow the weak to the point the strong become weak. And with each merger there will be more job cuts, massive job cuts. Bank of America's announced cutback of 7,500 related to its acquiring Countrywide is just a small down payment of what's coming down the pike.

Unemployment is poised to soar. Few are prepared for it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Fed's Trojan Horse Offering

My friend "TC" monitors C.A.R. data, DQNews data, and Case-Shiller Data. Case-Shiller data was out a few days ago and you can read about it in Case Shiller Futures Suggest 2010 Housing Bottom.

What follows is an analysis of data from the California Association of Realtors from "TC" who tracks the data month by month and is looking at things from perspective of percent declines from the peak.

"TC" writes:
I put together the just released May 2008 CAR data. As you can see the CA median home price is now down more than $200K and every region CAR tracks but one is down at least $100K. Additionally, 3 regions are now nearing a $500K median price decline. The declines in these areas is more than twice as much as the national median price!

Source: C.A.R. reports sales increased 18.1 percent; median home price fell 35.3 percent in May



click on chart for sharper image

According to CAR half of the decline is because of "shifts in the types of homes selling" and half due to price depreciation. Their calculation of "shifts in the types of homes selling" however is flawed. This because they base the shift on the % of jumbo loans. The problem with this method is that as prices decline the % of jumbo loans naturally moves lower so one can't automatically assume the "credit crunch" has lead to an equal % of the median price change.

However, CAR is in part correct that the credit crunch is having an effect on CA median home prices. In order to get a more accurate picture of how much I use the Case-Shiller data which using the repeated-sales methodology. This methodology is typically the most accurate representation of home prices (however Case-Shiller only tracks a few CA markets which is why I enjoy the CAR data as well).

Using the Case-Shiller data as a baseline one can see that about 1/4 of the median price decline can be attributed to the credit crunch statewide, with the other 3/4 of the decline being actual home depreciation.
Discussion Of Data Presentation Bias

The percentage declines from the peak is an admittedly biased way of looking at things as it makes each decline as large as possible. However there is an overall number from CAR and DQNews that shows the peak to be in April, May of 2007.

Is there any wonder that late vintage loans are defaulting at such a high rate. Liar loans were still ramping late 2006. Those liar loans found their way into various Alt-A pools. For a recent look at one Alt-A pool and what defaults are doing please take a peek at Is The Inflation Scare Over Yet?

Writeoffs in California have barely begun. However, the market is increasingly aware of what must happen. You can see it in the charts.

Washington Mutual Daily Chart



click on chart for sharper image



click on chart for sharper image

Washington Mutual (WM) crossed the magic threshold of $5. Many mutual funds have a requirement about market cap and price. Those with a threshold of $5 may have to dump it if it does not quickly recover.

On a purely fundamental basis, more writedowns on account of Alt-A liar loans are coming. More people will be walking away from their homes in California and Florida. Approximately 75-80% of those in liar loans only make the minimum payment. Negative amortization increases every month in those loans. On top of that, home prices are falling rapidly. Add the two together and anyone who put down even as much as 20% is now hugely underwater.

At some point escalation clauses will kick in. Escalation clauses vary by contract, but typically vary between 110% of the loan to 125% of the loan. Those clauses should be kicking in now, in mass, based on price depreciation alone.

Have they in practice? Think again. It would be the kiss of death for either WaMu or Wachovia to start enforcing those clauses, homeowners would immediately default. Instead, both banks pretend they are well capitalized when it is increasing apparent they are likely insolvent.

I fail to see how either of those banks survive. The Fed's policy so far is to have the relatively strong take over the pathetically weak. Examples of this are the shotgun wedding between JPMorgan (JPM) and Bear Stearns (BSC), and Bank of America (BAC) and Countrywide Financial (CFC).

Strong Become Weak

Eventually the strong become weak because of these actions. Bernanke's actions suggest there is no bank strong enough to take over the banks are about to fail. And that is why Bernanke is scrambling around like a mad fool (See Fed Looking To Bend Rules To Aid Banks), directly soliciting private equity firms to invest in banks.

The situation is so dire that Turf Wars Between Fed, SEC, Congress, Treasury are being openly fought in public.

If those private equity firms were smart they will treat this Fed offering like a Trojan Horse.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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